It's beginning to not only feel like winter, but look it as well after about 3 cm of snow yesterday in Winnipeg. Some light flurry activity remains downwind of the lakes this morning. We will not warm much today with a high only around -9°C, a good 8°C or so below normal.
Our next chance for more snow accumulation will be tomorrow night as a weak disturbance moves through. Not expecting much accumulation with this one with maybe 1-2 cm at most from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon. In addition, strong northwest winds on Wednesday will produce blowing and drifting snow.
A push of colder air will arrive for Thursday. If we get enough clearing, lows approaching -20°C cannot be ruled out Thursday morning. We'll likely only reach high minus teens (around -11°C or so) Thursday afternoon. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel... A warmup is expected to begin Friday. However, this may come with a chance for more snowfall this weekend (too early to confirm). Nonetheless, it is nice to see more seasonal temperatures in the forecast for the end of November and possibly into early December.
Note that the temperatures we have been seeing the last week will be considered normal by the first week of December.
Increasing cloud today with some light snow likely later in the afternoon and evening. Light snow at times through to tomorrow, especially downwind of the lakes. Not expecting much accumulation as already mentioned. Downright frigid for this time of year for Thursday with a low close to -20°C likely in the morning. Highs only around -11°C or so.
ReplyDeleteWe begin to warmup a bit by Friday, but this will come with snow chances. It now looks like our first snow chance will be late in the day on Friday, but not expecting major accumulation with that right now. After reaching close to the freezing mark Saturday, bigger system for Sunday with a decent snowfall accumulation possible. GEM and GFS giving a good 10 cm snowfall, but thankfully it's still far off and this could change (I sure hope it changes....!).
Band of steady snowfall approaching the city and likely beginning within the next half hour. Could get a quick cm or two of snow in the next couple hours. Periods of lighter snow to continue through the night.
ReplyDeleteLooks like just under 2 cm here last night up to this morning. A few more flurries today but with little to no accumulation.
ReplyDeleteTough to say exactly how cold we will drop down tonight. With clear skies and light northwest winds, temperatures will likely really tank tonight. I think it is likely we'll see our first -20°C of the season, bearing no unexpected cloud cover. We'll likely not even exceed -10°C tomorrow.
After dropping well into the minus teens early in the night tomorrow night, temperatures will rise towards Friday morning... and basically continue to rise until Saturday. Friday's high of -3°C or -4°C will likely be reached in the late evening. As for Saturday, we may exceed the freezing mark. Some flurries possible on Friday, and any precipitation that falls in the evening could fall as ice pellets. However, I think most of the precipitation will stay to our north so we may get nothing.
System for Sunday still uncertain. GFS and GEM flip flopping from a further north solution to further south. Nonetheless, keep in mind some accumulating snows will be possible Sunday and Monday.
Unfortunately, it looks like our little warmup will be brief, with cold conditions dominating next week.
Hard to say exactly how cold it got at the airport this morning because the data is not updating for some reason this morning. Nonetheless, in the hourly obs all the way down to around -23°C. Warmer, as you would expect, within city limits, by a few degrees. Down to about -19°C here in South St Vital.
ReplyDeleteRising temperatures tonight and we'll likely reach around -1°C or so by tomorrow evening. Highs near 0°C for Saturday and similar for Sunday. Models still not agreeing at this time on how far north the system will push Sunday-Monday.
Official low -23.4°C at the airport this morning... coldest low since March 23.
DeleteTotal number of blog views since I started in December 2011 has now reached 100,000... Just want to thank everyone who comes visit my blog regularly or from time to time. It has been a learning experience as well as good forecasting practice for me.
ReplyDeleteMy first post was January 1, 2012 and can be seen here: http://jjwinnipegweather.blogspot.ca/2012/01/warm-welcome-and-top-10-weather-events.html
Right from the get go, stats and weather summaries were the focus of this blog. Over time, forecasting became a bigger focus, especially during the university season when I don't necessarily have as much time to gather stats. Nonetheless, weather stats will continue to be my main expertise and I have no plans to stop blogging. :)
Yikes, that cold blast coming my midweek next weeks looks much colder than the cold blast we've been stuck under for the past 10 days. Highs only in the mid minus teens by Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteYeah, and let's hope the way the NAM is trending for Sunday-Monday's system doesn't become true... Could be talking about our first significant snowstorm of the season. One thing's for sure, somewhere in southern Manitoba is going to get a significant snow.
DeleteLooks like the GFS is starting to trend toward that to.. latest run shows about 8 cm for us.
DeleteAnd the GEM has ramped up a bit now sowing 5 cm, so theres a good chance we'll get at least something.
ReplyDeleteLatest NAM even more extreme; now showing 23 cm! I don't now how accurate my memories are, although from past experiences I remember that NAM has over estimated snow storms for us many times.
ReplyDeleteToo much on the high side right now for Winnipeg... Can't rule out that type of accumulation somewhere in southern Manitoba, especially to our north in the Interlake/central Mantioba.
DeleteNice day to our west today.... All the way up to +7°C in Brandon and +8°C in Melita. Even a +9°C in Pierson, just west of Melita. This warmer air has begun creeping into the western RRV and will warm us up too later today. Looking likely right now that we'll exceed the freezing mark in Winnipeg this evening.
ReplyDelete