Thursday, 26 February 2015

Old Man Winter Slowly Loosening His Grip

     Another day, another extreme cold warning this morning. In fact, this is the 9th day this month with an extreme cold warning in Winnipeg. Temperatures will likely only reach mid minus teens for a high today and it will be yet another cold night tonight well into the -20's.

     There is some good news. Slightly milder conditions are expected this weekend and early next week. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal, but still chillier than we'd like. The warmest days will be Sunday and Monday with highs reaching the minus single digits.

     Unfortunately, there is considerable agreement that another push of cold arctic air will arrive mid week next week. The arrival of this cold may be preceded by some light snow on Tuesday. Significant accumulations are not expected so far.

     Beyond that, models do agree we'll warm back up by the weekend next week, but that's still pretty far and things could still change. One things for sure, pushes of frigid arctic air will become less and less prolonged as we begin the transition from winter to spring.

     February summary to come Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

Thursday, 19 February 2015

Same Old, Same Old...

     Another day, another extreme cold warning... At least it didn't get as cold as some forecasts were indicating for this morning. Temperatures ''only'' dipped to -30.3°C at the airport.

     A slight warmup for tonight and tomorrow as a weak clipper system moves through. This will bring some light snow tonight, and at times tomorrow. I'm only expecting about 1 or 2 cm of accumulation. Relatively warm with a high close to -10°C tomorrow. There may be a bit of wind behind the system in the afternoon and evening, causing a bit of drifting snow.

     Another push of extremely cold air moves over for Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the -30's are likely for Sunday in particular and highs will be in the -20's for both days.

     Another one-day warmup for Monday as a system moves southwards from the high arctic into northern Manitoba. This could bring a bit of snow Monday, but I'm not expecting much. Frigid air moves in once again behind the system. It looks like colder than normal conditions will remain for the remainder of the month.

     So far, it appears likely this February will finish among the top 25 coldest on record since 1873.

     1981-2010 normal highs for the next 7 days range around -5°C to -7°C and normal lows around -16 or -17°C.

Monday, 9 February 2015

Snow Tomorrow

     Tomorrow's system is looking more promising for a decent snowfall in the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg. Steady snows should move in early in the morning tomorrow and last most of the day, tapering off by evening. In contrast to systems last week, this next one should be more difficult to miss. At least 5-10 cm of snow should fall in the Winnipeg area. As usual, I will keep you all up to date in the comments below.

     Winds will pick up behind the system tomorrow evening, creating drifting snow in the city and blowing snow in open areas. The strong winds will continue on Wednesday, producing ongoing blowing and drifting in open areas. It will also be quite cold with afternoon temperatures not far from -20°C. A very cold night is expected Wednesday night with lows not far from -30°C possible. Unfortunately, no major warmups, similar to what we saw in January and December, are expected for the next couple weeks.

Sunday, 1 February 2015

Mild And Lack of Snow in January 2015

     Despite a frigid start to the month, an extended January thaw mid and late month made sure January finished well above normal. In fact, with an average of -13.7°C we tied with 2010 for 19th warmest January since 1873. 6 days exceeded the freezing mark at the airport, above the normal of 3 days. The maximum was 3.7°C on the 22nd. However, even warmer temperatures occurred in other parts of the city on the 23rd when abundant sunshine helped to warm things up. Locally, highs of 5 or 6°C occurred. Significant melting of what little snow we had resulted.

    With the warmth came an unusual amount of days with light rain or freezing drizzle. 5 days of liquid precipitation occurred at my place in South St Vital. The 28th saw the greatest accumulation of freezing drizzle. Generally, 0.2 mm to 0.5 mm of freezing drizzle was recorded in the city. The airport received 0.2 mm, enough to tie with 1995 for a daily rainfall record.

     As for snow depth, the average depth of 15 cm was just 3 cm below normal. However, we finished January with a depth of about 12 cm, tied 12th thinnest snow pack on January 31 since 1941.