Despite a frigid start to the month, an extended January thaw mid and late month made sure January finished well above normal. In fact, with an average of -13.7°C we tied with 2010 for 19th warmest January since 1873. 6 days exceeded the freezing mark at the airport, above the normal of 3 days. The maximum was 3.7°C on the 22nd. However, even warmer temperatures occurred in other parts of the city on the 23rd when abundant sunshine helped to warm things up. Locally, highs of 5 or 6°C occurred. Significant melting of what little snow we had resulted.
With the warmth came an unusual amount of days with light rain or freezing drizzle. 5 days of liquid precipitation occurred at my place in South St Vital. The 28th saw the greatest accumulation of freezing drizzle. Generally, 0.2 mm to 0.5 mm of freezing drizzle was recorded in the city. The airport received 0.2 mm, enough to tie with 1995 for a daily rainfall record.
As for snow depth, the average depth of 15 cm was just 3 cm below normal. However, we finished January with a depth of about 12 cm, tied 12th thinnest snow pack on January 31 since 1941.
Models are hinting at a stronger clipper system from Alberta late this week. Too early to say how much snow Winnipeg would get. Hopefully it stays to the north if you are not a fan of winter. Unfortunately, the warmer conditions that were expected late week don't look to last very long right now.
ReplyDeleteLooks like multiple waves of snow will be possible from Friday to Tuesday so a more complicated pattern shaping up. First is early in the day on Friday with 2-5 cm possible... Some more snow possible both Saturday and Sunday. Another clipper possible Tuesday. Too early to say how much snow we'd get... but the way things have gone in January, there is always the possibility these systems would skid past us.
ReplyDeleteLet's hope we get a decent snow event as this is way to boring, would welcome what is happening down east 120+cm...
ReplyDeleteHaha, I can understand the boredom... I'm not hoping for snow personally though. I just want spring to arrive this year as early as possible to make up for two awful years in a row 2013-2014.
DeleteJJ, do you think an early spring is possible here in Southern Manitoba?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Impossible to say for sure this far out... But I am optimistic it will be at least a few weeks earlier than in 2013 and 2014 when winter dragged on until the 3rd or 4th week of April. The lack of snow, if it continues, would favour an earlier spring... Remember that 2013 and 2014 had abnomally high amounts of snowfall with snow depths reaching over 50 cm in March. Currently, snow depths are close to 10 cm.
DeleteThat would be nice for sure....I do know that it looks we will see some milder weather towards mid month perhaps before, but I don't think it will be to the extent we saw last month. Unfortunately it also looks like we will see the colder weather return again at month's end and to start March.
ReplyDeleteSnow depth today stood at about 12 cm officially in Winnipeg (Charleswood station). This is tied 10th lowest snow depth on this date since 1955. Encouragingly, of the top 20 lowest snow depths on February 3, only 3 years (15%) saw a March that was colder than the 1872-2014 average and 5 Marches (25%) were colder than the 1981-2010 normal. Of the 5 years, only 1 was an El Nino winter. Not sure if this winter will rank as El Nino or not though. However, I hope these stats hold up and we end up with a warmer than normal March this year. The odds are in our favour.
ReplyDeleteFriday's system has trended further south in model-land... Not surprisingly, looks like we might miss the worst in Winnipeg with less than 3 cm. Unfortunately (or thankfully if you want snow), Saturday's system is looking most potent right now. Generally 5-15 cm looks possible. Again, will have to watch for any trends in the system's movement as this will affect significantly how much snow we get.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow's system really doesn't look like much at all anymore with possibly 1 cm. Probably wont get any more than that.
ReplyDeleteNext couple waves of snow tomorrow night and Saturday. NAM has trended further north with these, giving us only a few cm of snow in Winnipeg. However, it is an outlier at the moment as all the ECMWF, GEM and GFS maintain a good 10 cm for the city. Stay tuned.
Consensus for Winnipeg currently 5-15 cm... That lower NAM amount looks to have been from one single model run.
DeleteFirst wave of snow early tomorrow as already mentioned... 1-2 cm expected at this time with higher amounts to our west.
ReplyDeleteMany models now in the 10-15 cm range for Winnipeg late tomorrow through to early Sunday. Looks like this will come in two waves: first late tomorrow into tomorrow night and second during the day on Saturday.
Potential is still there for yet another clipper system Monday night into Tuesday. So far, 5 or more cm of snow looks possible, but it's still pretty far out so this is subject to change.
VERY fluffy snow fell overnight, allowing for a decent accumulation. Just under 4 cm here, but a lot of that is just air!
ReplyDeleteSome light flurries this morning with steadier snow beginning later in the afternoon today, ending overnight. Additional 3-6 cm likely with this. Tomorrow's snow is more tricky because it looks like Winnipeg may end up quite close to the edge of the heavy snows. This could mean amounts as low as 1-3 cm if the snows remain to our north in the Interlake, or 5-10 cm if things push just a bit further south than expected. Luckily though, winds are not expected to be an issue the next couple days.
A more potent Montana Low is expected around Tuesday as already mentioned. Snowfall amounts will depend on how far south the system pushes. There is definitely the potential for snowfall amounts as high as 10 or 15 cm if the system pushes far enough north.
OK, finally the snow gods have responded, let's hope Tuesday is for real with that low...Keep up the good work JJ Denis
DeleteFirst wave of snow this evening really has not dropped much at all as the bulk of the snow remained to our north and east and did not last as long as expected. Don't think we even got 2 cm here in the south end. Tomorrow's snow is looking les significant in latest model runs with now most models giving no more than 5 cm for us. Not surprising considering this has been the case most of the winter. However, there is always that slight chance things end up snowier tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteMuch of the precipitation actually fell as ice pellets overnight and early this morning... further reducing snowfall totals. Only got perhaps another 1 cm of new accumulation here. Bulk of the precipitation is now to our east. On and off light snow or ice pellets will continue this morning. In total since yesterday morning, I've only received about 5 or 6 cm of snow and ice pellet accumulation so far.
ReplyDeleteTuesday's snow looking less significant. NAM and ECMWF bring about 2-5 cm while GFS and GEM continue to show 5-10 cm. Will update tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWell, it's looking like February will finish much colder than December and January. Go figure.
ReplyDeleteNot a trend i'm liking.