Thursday, 26 February 2015

Old Man Winter Slowly Loosening His Grip

     Another day, another extreme cold warning this morning. In fact, this is the 9th day this month with an extreme cold warning in Winnipeg. Temperatures will likely only reach mid minus teens for a high today and it will be yet another cold night tonight well into the -20's.

     There is some good news. Slightly milder conditions are expected this weekend and early next week. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal, but still chillier than we'd like. The warmest days will be Sunday and Monday with highs reaching the minus single digits.

     Unfortunately, there is considerable agreement that another push of cold arctic air will arrive mid week next week. The arrival of this cold may be preceded by some light snow on Tuesday. Significant accumulations are not expected so far.

     Beyond that, models do agree we'll warm back up by the weekend next week, but that's still pretty far and things could still change. One things for sure, pushes of frigid arctic air will become less and less prolonged as we begin the transition from winter to spring.

     February summary to come Saturday evening or Sunday morning.


  1. Looks like February will end somewhere around 24th to 28th coldest since 1873. Not quite as cold as last year which was 21st coldest. Of the top 20 to 30th coldest Februarys, here's how the following Marches ranked compared to the 1873-2014 March average of -8.0°C:

    4 Marches were well below the average (over 2°C below)
    4 Marches were near average
    3 Marches were well above the average (over 2°C above)

    However, 8 Marches were well below today's 1981-2010 normal March of -5.8°C and only 1 was well above.

    As a result, after a top 20 to 30 coldest February, the following March does tend to be colder than normal. Still too early to say what this March will have in store other than what I have mentioned in the post above.

  2. Actually starting to see the first hints of more seasonal or slightly above seasonal conditions returning by the second week of March. It is not clear if this will be a prolonged warmup or just a week-long event. Will have to wait and see how things trend.