After a very mild December and January, much colder conditions finally made their return in February. In fact, this past February was very similar to last year's February which averaged -20.0°C. This year averaged -19.2°C, 27th coldest February since 1873 and 11th coldest in the last century.
21 days dipped below -20°C, well below the normal of 14 days and tied 22nd most since 1873. 5 days dipped below -30°C, close to the normal of 4 days. This highlights the fact that although we may be seeing extended periods of cold, the cold is not particularly extreme in itself. Only 6 days rose above -10°C, tied 10th least since 1873. In fact, the monthly maximum was just a measly -3.1°C.Chilly Februarys have become the norm in the last decade. Since 2005, only 2012 had a warmer than normal February. 10 of the last 11 Februarys have averaged colder than normal. 5 of these averaged well below normal (more than 2°C below normal).
Unfortunately, dominant below normal conditions look to last through the first week of March. In fact, the cold will be reinforced by another push of arctic air mid week. Things look to moderate by the end of the week. Long range models indicate a good chance of generally above normal conditions for the second week of March. Let's hope this comes true! Now that the sun is much stronger, it wouldn't take much to put quite a dent in the little snow that we have on the ground. Snow depth is only about 20 cm in Winnipeg, more than half what it was last year (47 cm).
Yeah. i'm really liking the latest trends coming up. Long range models continue to strongly show a significant warmup beginning next weekend with even temps possibly several degrees above the freezing mark during the week of March 9th and beyond. Could this be winter's last gasp this week in terms of extreme cold and could this potential warmup lead us into an early Spring, we'll see but it sure is nice to see some strong agreement in terms of above normal temps in model land for a change.
ReplyDeleteWinter summary has been posted on A Weather Moment this morning.
ReplyDeleteThankfully, next week continues to show a significant warmup right now. Several days above zero look possible. The warmup may tame down a bit later in the month, but still it is nice to finally see some optimism.
Today is the last really cold day for a while. Above zero temperatures look likely this weekend and early next week. Starting to see signs of a cool down sometime mid week which will bring us back to near or below normal conditions late next week. Too early to say how long that would last but I suspect it wouldn't last long.
ReplyDeleteModels have backed down on the severity of the cool down next week. Clearly, still lots of uncertainty.
DeleteWill be updating the Winnipeg forecast tomorrow morning and have a new post up to update everyone on the forecast.
I'm thinking those automated day 6 and day 7 forecast from E.C of 7C Tuesday and 6C Wednesday is a touch on the overdone side especially for Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, looks a little high. Monday looks like the warmer day with highs in at least the mid single digits likely.
DeleteHowever the thinner snowpack which shouldn't take too long to melt barring we don't get any big snowfalls we may be able to establish some warmer temps like say perhaps double digits sooner this year rather than later.
ReplyDeleteIs this truly a transition into an early Spring with perhaps a few minor cool spells here and there, certainly hope so but we'll see.
ReplyDeleteThis snow pack will not last long if we keep getting above zero temperatures everyday, especially if we can get lots of sunshine. Snow depth between snow drifts is only around 10-20 cm generally at my place, which is about identical to this time in 2012, if not even a little thinner.
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