Friday, 20 March 2015

Chilly Weekend

The cool down begins today in southern Manitoba. For Winnipeg, temperatures will remain below zero, likely only reaching around -2°C or -3°C this afternoon. Steady northerly winds will make it feel even cooler.The morning cloud will clear before afternoon.

Cold night tonight with lows possibly dropping into the mid minus teens. The 1981-2010 normal low is around -8°C or so. Just some high cloud for tomorrow with highs in the mid minus single digits.

A little warmer on Sunday. Next week generally looks not far from normal temperatures. We'll likely exceed the freezing mark on most days so it doesn't look too cold. There will be a system south of the border mid week. Some models are further north than others with this system. If it pushes far enough north we may get some rain or snow but it's still too far away to confirm anything right now..

12 comments:

  1. Almost Reaching a solid minis 1 now... Could it reach zero by 5pm?

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    1. High today was -0.3°C.

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    2. Well this cool down isn't to bad after all! Could be worst

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  2. Well we greet the first day of Spring with temperatures that resemble more like winter. I hope everyone enjoyed the nice spring weather we had the last 10 days because we're back to colder than normal temps and it will remain that way likely into a good chunk of April based on the latest. Some have compared this mild spell to 2012. It's not even close to 2012. Unlike this year, in 2012 it pretty stayed quite mild as April did finish above average.

    Unlike 2012, true Spring isn't fully here just yet.

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    1. Yikes, not liking the GEM and GFS for midweek... giving potential for over 10 cm of snow across southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg. Thankfully, this is still pretty far off so it could still change for the better. ECMWF is further south... GEM and GFS are the furthest north right now.

      The Red River is almost ice-free right now here in the south end... not sure about the north end.

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  3. Yeah, this looks like a potent colorado low type system. We haven't had a major snowstorm all winter, why now.

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    1. Tragically, ECMWF now on board with the GEM and GFS this morning. Things are certainly trending northward in latest runs. Only hope is that there is still time.

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    2. I should note that precipitation may begin as rain before switching over to snow on Tuesday. Again this depends on how far north the system pushes.

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  4. Chilly low of -15.1°C this morning... Nowhere close to the old record of -28.9°C in 1879. Not much to add for today and tomorrow other than what's in the post.

    Unfortunately, before the system potential midweek we may get a bit of snow tomorrow night into early Monday. 1-3 cm likely if this materializes. Will keep an eye on midweek with frequent updates in the next few days.

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  5. Clouding over this afternoon... Should reach above zero around 2°C or so.

    Some snow likely tonight, mainly overnight and tomorrow morning. Looks like the bulk of the snow will be to our southwest but we could pick up 1-3 cm here in Winnipeg. 3-6 cm to our west and southwest from Brandon to Morden. Temperatures will rise above zero tomorrow afternoon and so much of the snow will likely melt. Temperatures might not even drop below zero tomorrow night ahead of Tuesday-Wednesday's system.

    Mild Tuesday ahead of the system here in the RRV. Should manage to reach 6-9°C, including in Winnipeg, but it will be cloudy. Snow or rain will begin in southwestern Manitoba later in the day on Tuesday. Still uncertain what this system will bring for Winnipeg and the RRV. Precipitation might begin as rain on Wednesday before switching over to snow. Snow would end sometime in the evening or possibly as late as overnight. Precipitation typing and the fact that much of the precipitation may fall during the day makes snow amount forecasts difficult. Will have to wait to see how future model runs look.

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  6. JJ, How much snow is expected with the system mid week?

    Thanks!

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    1. Amounts too tough to call right now. So far, 5-10 cm looks like a good bet but with possibly more or less depending on exactly how the situation unfolds. Precip might start as rain initially Tuesday night then fall as snow on Wednesday. With temperatures near or slightly above zero, there could also be some melting on contact Wednesday afternoon. Even at that, models not agreeing on temperatures for Wednesday afternoon.

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