Saturday, 28 March 2015

Rain Tonight; Warming Up

The remnant snow from mid week's storm will melt away this weekend as rain and warm temperatures return...

For today, clouds will thicken this afternoon ahead of a clipper system. Although we should reach mid single digits for a high, a very strong south wind will ruin the day. Winds will be sustained up to 50 km/h at times and gusts as high as 60-70 km/h. Rain with the clipper system will begin late this evening and end later in the overnight hours. 4-8 mm looks likely. Note that this system could even bring some weak thunderstorm activity to western North Dakota and southeastern Saskatchewan this afternoon and evening. However, thunder is not expected in Manitoba.

Skies will clear tomorrow morning, giving way to a nice sunny day. Unfortunately, strong northwest winds will somewhat ruin the day again. We should manage to reach mid to high single digits.

A weak system could bring some light showers on Monday. Nonetheless, it looks very mild Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low teens not out of the question if we can get enough sunshine.

Another system is expected for Wednesday-Thursday. There is still some disagreement on precipitation amounts and type. Any precipitation that falls on Wednesday so far looks to be rain as temperatures will be quite mild. Transitioning to snow may occur Wednesday night. Will update in the comments below as things become more certain. One thing's for sure, we will be cooling down again behind the system for late next week.

12 comments:

  1. Rain event last night was a bit of a flop with just 1.3 mm here in South St Vital and 0.4 mm at the airport. Bulk of the rain grazed the US border.

    Wednesday-Thursday's system trending northward in latest model runs, which means less precipitation for us if that comes true. It would mean possibly a bit of rain Wednesday then a bit of wet snow on the backside of the system Thursday but with little accumulations as precipitation remains mainly well to our north.

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  2. JJ how cold do we get behind Wednesday's System? Thanks much. - Mike McG.

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    1. We're done with winter cold so we're not talking about a serious cool down here. Wont be any worse than last week's cool down.

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    2. That's bad enough. That's well below normal for early April. With overnight lows in the - 12 to -14C from Thursday night through Saturday night I'd say that ain't exactly springlike.

      In other words, true Spring has still not taken hold here. Once again we are missing out of what is and has been real Spring out west. Estevan was 22C yesterday. The warmest air continues to reside west of Manitoba and that will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future.

      For as long as we stay stuck in this stubborn persistent trough, we'll continue to be seasonal or below season at best with the odd modest milder day.

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  3. I think March will be above normal. So we can't complain

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    1. Yeah. In fact, looks like March should finish no colder than 20th warmest on record since 1872. March summary will be on Wednesday. River ice is mostly gone, snow is all melted, we just had our second double digits day of the month, and we've had rain this March. No complaints here!

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    2. It was our third - March 14, 15 and yesterday.

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    3. Sorry, that's correct.

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  4. A few showers midday and this afternoon, but they shouldn't last too long. Will manage to reach high single digits.

    Sunnier tomorrow, but still some cloud. Should manage to hit double digits, possibly 11-12°C, a great way to end a great March!

    System for Wednesday-Thursday.... We will really miss out on the majority of the precipitation as it remains well to our north and east. There could be a few showers early in the day on Wednesday, then we should see a bit of sun by Wednesday afternoon. How much sun we get will determine how warm we get. Looks very mild to say the least with highs in the mid teens likely. If we manage to get some sun, can't rule out reaching 16-17°C. Old record is 19.4°C in 1928 so it doesn't look like we'll be breaking any records.

    Big cool down behind the system for Thursday with strong northwest winds for the afternoon. Likely will be some light snow with this but it doesn't look like we'll see major accumulations.

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  5. Yet another double digit day as the showers didn't quite materialize and the sun is abundant. Line of showers is moving in however for later this afternoon.

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  6. Interesting... The first lightning strikes of the year occurring late this afternoon in the Interlake just northwest of Eriksdale and south of Portage. Very localized in nature.

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    1. Nice little cell passed over south Winnipeg early this evening... Even some pea-sized hail fell from Waverley West eastward to the south Perimeter. Didn't get any at my place as I was a bit too far north. No thunder from this cell at all, but still decent for this time of year!

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