Friday, 27 April 2012

Warming Trend

Today looks like a mix of sun and cloud for the city of Winnipeg, with cloud winning out over the sun. The rain to our west will try to sneak northeast towards us, but the strong high pressure in northern Manitoba, and the dry air will likely protect us from the rain. Expect highs around 13 or 14°C in the city today.
Areas around Melita and Virden will get a bit of a soaking today with 10+ mm of rain possible, and a few rumbles are not out of the question. Highs will remain in the single digits there. Brandon, you will likely see some showers today as well, but nothing like what Melita will see.

Skies will be much clearer tomorrow for Winnipeg, while areas in southwestern Manitoba will remain in quite a bit of cloud cover. Brandon, you should still see a few sunny break in the afternoon. Expect highs around 16 or 17 in Winnipeg under sunny skies. Expect 12 or 13 in Brandon.

The cut-off low over Montana will finally break apart and move east Sunday night, giving us an unsettled Monday for much of southern Manitoba. There may be a line of thunderstorms early Monday moving through southern Manitoba along the llj, but it is uncertain at this point. Stay tuned for updates.

After the showers Monday, things warmup nicely with highs generally in the high teens and low twenties for much of next week for ALL of southern Manitoba. Normals highs by then are around 16 or 17°C, so technically it wont be hugely above normal, and it wont be anything close to records which are in the low thirties. Looking foreward to it nonetheless :)

Sunday, 22 April 2012


     There will be a mix of sun and cloud today over the city. Expect highs around 17 or 18°C, a few degrees above normal.

     Tomorrow will be a similar day for temperatures with highs expected to be around 18°C. A problem with tomorrow is cloud cover. With the warm front being just to our north, we are expecting cloudy skies in the morning, with a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon. Showers will be possible associated with the front, although most of the rain should remain in the Interlake and to our east with a few mm possible in those regions. Areas to the northwest of the city could hear a rumble of thunder as well, though the risk is small since an llj is almost non-existant.

     Tuesday is another complicated day. Too much cloud could limit highs, as well some models keep us with a east or northeast wind, north of the warm front. Most models are showing highs in the mid twenties, although personally I am leaning towards more of a high of around 21°C for the city. A few showers may be possible as well, though most of us likely wont even see a drop. I don't expect much in the way of thunderstorms thanks to lack of a trigger (llj/cold front).

     Keep in mind that Tuesday's forecast is uncertain, therefore I will be giving updates when available.

     Temperatures will be much warmer in Saskatchewan and Alberta, where they are right under the ridge with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures in the mid to high twenties are expected in major cities such as Calgary, Saskatoon and Regina for a couple days. Some 'desert' regions as I call them, such as Medicine Hat, Maple Creek and Swift Current could crack 30°C tomorrow!

Tuesday, 17 April 2012


Good evening,

     Rain has begun, and will continue through the night.

     It is looking likely that we will see rain beginning to mix with wet snow overnight with temperatures dropping close to the freezing mark. It shouldn't accumulate to much; and even if it does, it would just melt tomorrow with the warm ground and some sunshine. There is a higher chance you wont be seeing snow on the ground in the morning.

     I'm saying 5 to 10 mm around Winnipeg with this system, though there could be some locally higher amounts near 15 mm in some heavier bands since there could be some embedded convection.

     Sun will begin to peak out tomorrow, but it wont be a full blown sunny day, with much more cloud than sun. Thursday looks sunnier, but with some high cloud.

     It will be rather cool for the next few days, until Saturday. Sunday and Monday will feature a nice warmup back into at least the mid teens as a ridge builds over western Canada. Just how long the warmup will last is yet to be determined at this point, but it does not look like it will be here to stay for long at this point unfortunately..

Friday, 13 April 2012

Umbrellas for Friday the 13th

    Good morning Manitoba :)

     It will be a wet day today. Bands of showers are widely scattered so far this morning across the south. As the system currently in Nebraska lifts northwards throughout the day, rain will become more widespread in southwestern Manitoba later this morning. Southeastern Manitoba including Winnipeg will have to wait until later this afternoon for the heavier bands to move through. Scattered showers will continue throughout the evening as well as the centre of the low continues to move north, passing through our area overnight or in the morning Saturday.

     It will also be quite windy this afternoon with southeast winds of 40 km/h possible in southeastern Manitoba. Winds will be lighter in the southwest. Rain showers will taper off Saturday morning, giving way to mainly cloudy skies for Saturday afternoon and evening. A few sunny breaks will be possible, especially late afternoon and evening, but most of Saturday should see more cloud than sun. Highs will be between 10 and 12 in the southeast and 12 and 14 in the southwest.

     Wonder what rainfall totals will be? I'm thinking about 5 to 15 mm for southeast Manitoba, and 15 to 25 mm in southwestern areas. Here's what the GEM Regional model is thinking totals will be:
GEM-REG model showing total amounts of 15-20 mm in southwest MB and 10-15 mm in
 the southeast. (Friday through to Saturday morning)
     A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out completely in southern Manitoba today, but I wouldn't count on it. Minimal instability will likely eliminate any chance of that happening. Overall, I'd say no thunder at all.

     Sunday will be much cooler behind the cold front, and very windy. Winds will be gusting over 60 km/h Sunday afternoon, keeping temperatures over 5 to 10 C below normal. I'm only expecting a high of around 3 or 4°C in the city.

Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Warming Up

     We just have to get through one more miserable day. It will be mainly cloudy with highs only around 0°C in Winnipeg today. Winds will be lighter than it was on the weekend, but it will still be a little breezy from the north. A few snowflakes may be seen at times again as well.

     Skies will begin to clear out this evening, giving way to a few days of warmth and sunshine ahead. Although, we will also have to get through one more cold night tonight. The high pressure centre will move through southern Manitoba tonight. As a result, light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop between -10°C and -15°C. BRR!

     With plenty of sunshine and light winds tomorrow, things will rebound quickly to around 7 or 8°C.

     It will get even warmer Thursday, with temperatures getting back to what we have become accustomed to (or spoiled with!). Expect highs around 15°C, but there will be a small price to pay. Winds will also be picking up from the southeast, with sustained winds around 30, and gusts up to 50 km/h possible. Most of Thursday will feature crystal clear skies, although cloud will begin to increase later in the afternoon, and especially by evening. That's where we have to talk about a potential storm Thursday night through to early Saturday. It's a little far off right now, but it could be a good rain maker, and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. Stay tuned for updates.

Friday, 6 April 2012

Weekend Forecast

Smoke from a brush fire outside of Teulon, Manitoba, area can be
 seen from a considerable distance away. (Vera-Lynn Kubinec/CBC)

     Good evening, and what an amazing Good Friday it was! We reached 20°C in the city today with lots of sunshine, especially this morning and early afternoon. Winnipeg did not break a record, as the old record for today is 22.8°C in 1900, but a good half a dozen were broken outside the city. Grass fires were a major concern over southern Manitoba today though thanks to low humidity, dry soil, strong winds and lots of sunshine and warm temperatures. Full story here by CBC.

     Now here's my latest forecast for the rest of the weekend:

     A few showers will be possible tonight and tomorrow morning. At this point, a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but it is looking unlikely that we'll see widespread storms thanks to lack of moisture/instability. A strong llj may be enough for us to get a few bands of heavier showers though. Generally I would call for a trace to 2 mm for the Winnipeg area, locally higher amounts possible to the north and east of the city.

     We'll get a bit of a break tomorrow afternoon with some sunshine, but that sunshine will be brief. More showers and possibly even wet flurries will be possible Saturday evening and overnight with the wrap-around. At this point, an additional 1 or 2 mm is expected for the city, with very little snow accumulation if we get snow. Temperatures will also be falling in the afternoon behind the cold front.
     It will be very windy tomorrow too with winds from the west or southwest at over 50 km/h. Locally winds could be as high as 60 km/h and gusts to 80 km/h at times so hold on to your hats!! Winds will be strongest late in the afternoon and early in the evening.

     Sunday is looking drier than it was looking this morning. A mix of sun and cloud can now be expected, with just a few hit and miss showers still possible. Again it will be very windy from the west at about 40 km/h. It will be cool with highs in the mid single digits only, a few degrees below our normal 7°C.

     Monday looks windy yet again with NW winds expected to be about 30 gusting to 40 km/h. There could still be a lot of lingering cloud cover and scattered flurries as well since we're only expecting a high near 0°C Monday. Beyond Monday, it's looking cold Tuesday and Wednesday with overnight lows below zero (-5 to -10) and highs barely over the freezing mark. It's going to be difficult to get used to the cooler weather!

     Meanwhile, Saskatchewan is going to get pounded tonight. Up to 30 cm of snow can be expected in and northeast of Regina, and that will be accompanied by winds over 50 km/h!! Classic Prairie spring blizzard shaping up!! Here's how Edmonton's 20+ cm of snow looked yesterday:

Lorraine Osborne sent this picture to The Weather Network. I don't take credit for this photo.
     After seeing what they're getting out west, we've got nothing to complain about! :P

Changes Coming

     One more day of spectacular warmth and sunny skies today before things change. Expect highs around 19 or 20°C today with just some high cloud. It will be becoming windier this afternoon with S/SE winds 40 gusting to 60 km/h possible. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Saskatchewan Border today as well, especially this morning.

     Tonight begins the turn around. A cold  front will be slicing through southern Manitoba overnight and in the morning Saturday. A few showers will be possible along the front, and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Widespread and organised thunderstorms look unlikely thanks to limited instability and moisture. We should not see any significant accumulations. A couple mm possible in the heavier showers, but generally it's just a few sprinkles. Watch the comment section of this post for updates.

     It will be much colder behind this system. Wrap-around precipitation may move in by Saturday afternoon and evening, but it doesn't look like we'll get significant accumulations with the worst staying to our north. It will be windy again tomorrow with westerly winds over 50 km/h expected by afternoon.

     We will be spared the worst we can say. This system is expected to bring significant snow to parts of Saskatchewan tonight. Areas north of Regina and Yorkton could see in excess of 20 cm! That would be accompanied by strong winds creating whiteout conditions. Travel is not advised in Saskatchewan tonight and tomorrow for obvious reasons.

     The cooler weather will continue for for most of next week before a warmup late in the week just in time for the weekend.

Sunday, 1 April 2012

Warmest and 3rd Rainiest March on Record, No Fooling!

March 10 sunset
     Yesterday's high of 18.8°C in Winnipeg was just 0.1 degrees shy of the old record of 18.9°C in 1963. The sunshine and temperatures that were 14°C above normal were a fitting end to an unprecedented month. As a result of yesterday's warmth, the monthly March mean temperature jumped to 2.2°C, easily making March 2012 the warmest March on record since records began in 1872. That's a whopping 8.3°C above the normal mean of -6.1°C, and 0.6° warmer than the previous warmest March of 1.6°C in 1878.

Top 5 warmest Marches in Winnipeg

1.  2012  ......   2.2°C
2.  1878  ......   1.6°C
3.  1910  ......   1.2°C
4.  1973  ......   0.5°C
5.  2000  ......  -0.1°C

     Daytime highs were also the warmest on record with an average of 8.0°C, 0.8° warmer than the previous warmest average of 7.2°C in 1910. Daily lows were the second warmest on record with an average of -3.6°C, just 0.2° shy of number one honours which belongs to 1878 with an average of -3.4°C.

     The month started cool and very snowy, with a major snowstorm on the first 2 days of the month. Sorry for reminding you lol! The storm dumped 10-15 cm of snow over the city, and raising snow depths up to 25 cm. This ensured that this March would not be one of the least snowy on record.

     The tables made a full 180° degree turn on March 10 when all of a sudden temperatures were consistently in the double digits for the next 2 weeks! That 25 cm snow depth melted down to 0 cm in just 4 days! The lack of snow cover allowed temperatures to soar to May-like values by the 16th. This particular bout of unprecendeted warmth would continue up to the 23rd. Day after day records were not only broken, they were obliterated. Some records were broken by over 7 degrees!! By the 24th, at least 25 records were shattered during the historic weather event, not only for temperature though. The entire list of records can be viewed here.

     Some temperature highlights include the earliest 20°C + day on record (March 18 at 20.9°C), the all-time March high temperature (March 19 at 23.7°C), the all-time March high daily minimum temperature (March 19 at 13.3°C), the all-time most above normal day for temperature for any day of the year (+23.4°C above normal on March 19), and the all-time March high humidex (humidex of 28 on March 19).

     Strangely, thunderstorms also made their appearance on a few occasions this March. 4 events brought lightning to southern Manitoba. 2 particularly intense events brought the biggest surprises on March 19 and on the night of March 26/27. Frequent lightning was seen during both events, as well as torrential downpours, and even some pea to dime sized hail early March 27. Storms were intense enough to ground flights on March 19, and both events knocked out power to many. Several rain events during the second half of the month made this March the 3rd rainiest March on record with 43.5 mm at the airport for the month.

Top 5 rainiest Marches in Winnipeg

1.  1945  .......  67.6 mm
2.  1878  .......  59.9 mm
3.  2012  .......  43.5 mm
4.  1902  .......  42.7 mm
5.  1983  .......  40.4 mm

March Photo Gallery

Name of authors included if I did not take the picture. Be sure to check The Weather Network's viewer photo gallery regularly to view awesome pics such as these.
March snow melt Progression from March 10 to 14. My own pics from my yard.
March 23 seed pods already coming out on my maple tree.
This is a full month earlier than normal!