Tuesday, 17 April 2012


Good evening,

     Rain has begun, and will continue through the night.

     It is looking likely that we will see rain beginning to mix with wet snow overnight with temperatures dropping close to the freezing mark. It shouldn't accumulate to much; and even if it does, it would just melt tomorrow with the warm ground and some sunshine. There is a higher chance you wont be seeing snow on the ground in the morning.

     I'm saying 5 to 10 mm around Winnipeg with this system, though there could be some locally higher amounts near 15 mm in some heavier bands since there could be some embedded convection.

     Sun will begin to peak out tomorrow, but it wont be a full blown sunny day, with much more cloud than sun. Thursday looks sunnier, but with some high cloud.

     It will be rather cool for the next few days, until Saturday. Sunday and Monday will feature a nice warmup back into at least the mid teens as a ridge builds over western Canada. Just how long the warmup will last is yet to be determined at this point, but it does not look like it will be here to stay for long at this point unfortunately..


  1. Already 3 to 4 mm of rain in the city as of 8:10 PM. Getting some heavier bands moving through.

  2. 7 to 9 mm as of 9:30 PM in the city. Band of heavy rain just to the northwest of the city has been giving higher rain amounts to those areas, with radar estimates around 15 to 20 mm of rain already. I suspect that is a little higher than reality, but I'm not sure since I don't have any rain amounts outside of the city at the moment.

  3. 9 to 12 mm now as of 10 PM.

    It's looking we could be seeing totals around 10 to 20 mm around the city once it's all set and done before morning, with local amounts of 15 to 25 mm just to the north and west of the city. Turning out to be quite the rain event after all!

  4. 15 to 20 mm of rain in the city last night. Quite the rainfall, though models had trended towards a wetter solution, which I should have taken into consideration in my personal forecast.

    There will be some sun, some cloud, and potentially a few more sprinkles today, with highs around 9°C.

    Clouds move back in tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies in general as a system moves just to our west and south.

    Next rain I'm tracking looks like Saturday, though it doesn't look overly significant right now.

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  6. Just of note:

    This note regards the normal high and low I put everyday in the 'Winnipeg Forecast' tab at the top of this blog. Starting tomorrow, I will be using the 1981 to 2010 normals from now on, instead of the 1971 to 2000 normals we've been using all these years. I had to crunch these normals myself since Environment Canada still has not released the 1981 to 2010 normals; much later than they should be released imo.

    The 1981 to 2010 normals will/would be a lot more representive of the times, since the 1971 to 2000 normals are becoming outdated.

  7. Winnipeg climate statistics now available under the ''statistics'' tab at the top ^ . It will take a few days to get all the data I have, in, so please bear with me!

    The stats are for:

    1 - If you need them for whatever reason
    2 - If you're just curious :)
    3 - Convenience. (ex: if you wondered what was the record for today/this month, or any given day/month, all you need is there so you don't have to go through all the climate data on ec's website)

    I seperated the data from this blog simply for organisational/simplicity reasons.

    I will update the record 'books' when records are broken.

    If you have any suggestions of other record catagories I could add, feel free to tell me here, or at < manitobaweather@gmail.com > . I'm always willing to add to the statistics for everyone.

  8. Spectacular afternoon with those light winds and brilliant sunshine.. 12.3°C at my place at the moment.

    Things change tonight with increasing cloud, with rain throughout most of Saturday. We could pick up 5 to 15 mm in general throughout all of the southern Manitoba, with heaviest amounts expected from western Manitoba down to the Riding Mountains, and southeast along Lake Manitoba to Morden and Sprague. Some of those areas, especially in the Riding Mountains, could see up to 20 mm locally.

    Warm Sunday with highs around 14 or 15°C with the return of sunshine. Same story for Monday expect perhaps a degree or two warmer.

    Tuesday could be our warmest day with temperatures in the high teens and approaching 20, although showers may be possible. A little far for details, so will update Sunday and Monday.

  9. Newer model runs keeping the bulk of the rain to the west of the city tomorrow. The very dry air here and high pressure to our north look like they could prevent the rain from moving too far east.

    Will update with more certainty in the morning. We may get little to nothing in the city under the current scenario predicted, while southwestern Manitoba would still get 5 to 15 mm.

  10. Looks like we wont be getting much at all in the city today after all. We may get a few sprinkles, but nothing more than that. Will be a cloudy day, with a bit of clearing later in the day.

    Clearer skies tomorrow, but looks a little cloudier than previously thought with more of a mix of sun and cloud. Highs look to be in the mid to high teens.

    Monday has become increasingly difficult to predict. NAM for instance puts us right on the warm front, which makes it difficult to predict what the high temperature and wind direction will be. I'm leaning towards the front moving slightly to our north, allowing us to warm up into the high teens with south winds, but that could change. If we end up just north of the front, it will be a cloudier day with easterly winds and highs only between 13 and 15°C; whereas if we end up just to the south, we would see more sunshine and temperatures approaching 20°C.

    Tuesday again is difficult as well. GEM Global keeps us south of the warm front with highs in the 20's, but NAM and GFS keep us north of the front with highs remaining in the low to mid teens.

    Will keep y'all updated

  11. Boy I can't believe the huge bust today's forecast was, not just for a few people/models, but practically everyone. Not a drop in the city and now the sun is coming out to what looks to be a spectacular afternoon once it does clear. Looks like we got a good shot at reaching the mid teens... ! You don't have to go far to find rain though, areas literally ''just'' south of us had a few mm this morning.

  12. Consensus is getting closer for Monday and Tuesday. What NAM was saying this morning has completely changed.

    Both NAM and GEM now show temperatures closer to 20 for Monday, and in the mid twenties Tuesday. Stay tuned, will make a new post tomorrow. Hopefully the forecasts don't change again.. :P