Friday, 13 April 2012

Umbrellas for Friday the 13th

    Good morning Manitoba :)

     It will be a wet day today. Bands of showers are widely scattered so far this morning across the south. As the system currently in Nebraska lifts northwards throughout the day, rain will become more widespread in southwestern Manitoba later this morning. Southeastern Manitoba including Winnipeg will have to wait until later this afternoon for the heavier bands to move through. Scattered showers will continue throughout the evening as well as the centre of the low continues to move north, passing through our area overnight or in the morning Saturday.

     It will also be quite windy this afternoon with southeast winds of 40 km/h possible in southeastern Manitoba. Winds will be lighter in the southwest. Rain showers will taper off Saturday morning, giving way to mainly cloudy skies for Saturday afternoon and evening. A few sunny breaks will be possible, especially late afternoon and evening, but most of Saturday should see more cloud than sun. Highs will be between 10 and 12 in the southeast and 12 and 14 in the southwest.

     Wonder what rainfall totals will be? I'm thinking about 5 to 15 mm for southeast Manitoba, and 15 to 25 mm in southwestern areas. Here's what the GEM Regional model is thinking totals will be:
GEM-REG model showing total amounts of 15-20 mm in southwest MB and 10-15 mm in
 the southeast. (Friday through to Saturday morning)
     A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out completely in southern Manitoba today, but I wouldn't count on it. Minimal instability will likely eliminate any chance of that happening. Overall, I'd say no thunder at all.

     Sunday will be much cooler behind the cold front, and very windy. Winds will be gusting over 60 km/h Sunday afternoon, keeping temperatures over 5 to 10 C below normal. I'm only expecting a high of around 3 or 4°C in the city.


  1. Things going as planned so far. Heavier band now moving through our area. 3.5 mm here at my place so far today, so I'm staying with my forecast of 5 to 15 mm for our area for this system.

    Rain will begin to taper to scattered showers for the evening. Showers on and off this evening in other words.

  2. Total rainfall so far at my place is about 9.5 mm. 11.4 mm fallen in Charleswood; a general 10 mm in the city. Looks like the worst of the rain is over, with just a few scattered showers still possible until morning.

    Looks like we may get a bit more sun late tomorrow afternoon and early evening than earlier thought, so good news if you have any yardwork to do. Sunday will be blustery, cold and cloudy so any yard work needing done probably would have to be done tomorrow.

    Will be keeping a close eye on Nebraska, Oklahoma and Kansas tomorrow. I've never seen such a prime risk for tornadoes personally; spc in the US issued high risk for that area this morning. According to wiki, it is the first time they issue a high risk on their preliminary forecast for Day 2.

    According to Jeff Master's, the Gulf of Mexico is at its warmest temperature on record right now, which is likely a factor in increasing that risk tomorrow with a lot more moisture available than there would normally be.

  3. I'm surprised by how far north the new model runs are bringing that US system tomorrow. With current guidance, we will be very close to a major rain storm. For instance, parts of North Dakota is expecting over 50 mm of rain with the system. Personally I think we'll stay north of the heavy rain, with perhaps a few showers and flurries tomorrow in the city. Areas closer to the US and Ontario borders could potentially pick up around 5 mm, but we'll keep you all updated on the system.

    Either way, it will be VERY windy tomorrow, straight from the north. Winds are expected to be sustained around 50 km/h with gusts to 70 km/h possible. May be hard to keep your umbrellas if it rains!

    As for today, misty/cloudy with some isolated showers this morning. Things should clear and dry out this afternoon with that westerly wind. So it definitely does look like we'll be seeing some sunshine, and warmer temperatures. We may actually get into the mid teens, which would be a pleasant surprise.

  4. Here's a website where you can view live storm chasing south of the border:

    Lots of tornado warnings so far today, but still the worst has not come.

  5. 73 reports of tornadoes down south so far. Remember that that is just the number of reports, and does NOT necessarily mean there were 73 tornadoes today. 73 reports is still quite high, quite an active day with supercells still staying strong after dark.

  6. Yet another large city getting hit by a large tornado.. Wichita is currently under a tornado emergency, with reports of major damage near the airport.

    SWAT chasers got hit by the tornado forming over them southeast side of Wichita around 1030 PM CDT! I was watching their feed live when they got hit! Heart was pounding lol, thankfully they are okay. Tornadoes moving east of Wichita now, around Andover.

    Quite the night indeed.

  7. 121 tornado reports yesterday/last night south of the border. Although, that does not mean there were 121 tornadoes, but it definitely means there were lots. We wont know how many there actually was until later this week after the NWS in the US surveys the damage.

    Wichita and Woodward were 2 towns that were severely hit. Some people were killed in Woodward, Oklahoma; I hear 5 people were dead, but that number could still rise.

    In Wichita, the Oaklawn neighbourhood was declared a crisis area last night. Severe damage is seen there, and also lots of damage to the airforce base nearby (south side of city). Watch this video to see just how large the tornado was over the city :

    Will post something later today about the outbreak, because it really was quite the night.

    Today is really Minnesota/Wisconsin and Iowa's turn for severe weather. Likely wont be as severe as last night, but will definitely be something to watch again today.

  8. As for our weather, the system looks to completely miss us today so good news if you didn't want rain. But it will still be very windy this afternoon from the north. There may be a few showers along the US and Ontario borders associated with that system, but it wont be anything significant.

  9. We luckily missed quite a snowstorm. 20 to 25 cm of snow in northern and northwestern Ontario, including Atikokan, Geraldton and Kaspuskasing.

  10. Models hinting at a warmup next week, after a rather cool week this week.
    Perhaps back to 20°C weather? A little far to say, but it's possible.

  11. Showers look to begin between 3 and 5 pm around the city today. The rain will last through to the overnight, bringing about 5 to 15 mm along the Trans-Canada Highway through all of southern Manitoba. Will be that light, gloomy type rain. Some embedded convection may be possible, which may give some heavier bursts locally. Not expecting any storms north of the border, but a few rumbles will be possible for border towns such as Melita, Morden and Sprague this evening and overnight. Nothing significant though.

    It's hard to say just when (and if?) the rain will change to snow. Some models say a rain event solely, while others bring up to 5 cm of the white stuff. Will keep you up to date, because I think most of us don't want to see the return of winter!

    Cool weather continues until the weekend, with things beginning to warm up Sunday and Monday. Looking foreward for it.