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| Snow is quickly melting away |
We've already come just shy of breaking record highs the last few days. 2 days this week (Tuesday and Thursday) saw highs that were within 2°C of an old record. Yesterday's high of 8.9°C was just shy of the old record of 9.7°C in 2012.
The peak of the warmup comes this weekend with highs in the teens. There may be some patchy fog tomorrow morning which hopefully will burn off before the afternoon. If morning low cloud does burn off before the afternoon, then highs in the low to mid teens look likely from the Red River Valley westward. Winnipeg has the potential to reach a record 11-14°C (old record 11.4°C in 1981) if all goes well. Winds will also be strong out of the south-southeast in the afternoon and evening.
The peak of the warmth actually moves over on Sunday. Again, highs will depend on cloud cover. They will also depend on how early a cold front pushes through later in the day. Some models are earlier than others with this front. If all goes well, highs in at least the mid teens would occur in the Red River Valley, warmest closer to the US border where high teens would be possible. Winnipeg's old record is 14.4°C in 2012. Stay tuned in the comments below for updates as things could still change... Additionally, some light showers will be possible late in the day as the colder air moves in, but not much is expected.
Cooler, but still near or above seasonal conditions are expected for the work week next week.
Enjoy the warmer than normal conditions while they last!
Is 7.4C a record for Today?
ReplyDeleteI believe 11.7C is the record for today? The highest it got in Southdale was plus 9 but don't know that's true or not ( Weather Underground )
ReplyDeleteHigh of 7.7°C at the airport today, not very close to the old record of 12.2°C in 1902: http://wxrecordbooks.weebly.com/martempwpg.html
ReplyDeleteWow...Sunday is becoming more and more interesting. It's quite possible that we may approach the 20C mark. Euro is forecasting 18C for Winnipeg and temps aloft support that. The big thing here is that we will start Sunday very mild at 9C or 10C. Get out and enjoy late April-May like temps this weekend.
ReplyDeleteCooler weather for next week with highs back in the single digits. Kinda weird to say that temps slightly above the freezing mark at this time of year is cooler.
This indeed is an early spring and heck I say we deserve it after the last 2 years.
Thank goodness there's no low cloud this morning. A record breaking day is very likely today with highs around 13-15°C in Winnipeg. This would obliterate the old record of 11.4°C in 1981 and be one of the warmest highs for so early in the year on record. Since 1873, only in the year 2000 have we seen temperatures this warm earlier in the year.
ReplyDeleteVERY warm night tonight under strong winds and cloud cover. There is even a slight possibility we may not even drop below 10°C.
For tomorrow, my concerns about the timing of the colder air intrusion is increasing. The NAM model is now much earlier with the colder air than it was yesterday, which is now more in line with other models. Cloud cover in the morning may limit things a bit, but the cloud should be thin. Nonetheless, I think we should manage to reach 14-16°C or so before the colder air moves in in the afternoon. Plummeting temperatures tomorrow evening. The old high minimum for tomorrow is 3.3°C in 1927 which we might break depending on how quickly we cool in the evening.
Cooler Monday, likely reaching low to mid single digits. Similar for Tuesday
Some records have already been shattered to our west and south today. Morden already broke it's 2012 record of 11.2°C around lunch today and reached 15°C at 1 pm.
ReplyDeleteWe may break the record here in Winnipeg today but not so sure we'll get to 13C however. Too much of a ESE breeze.
ReplyDeleteActually correction we have tied the record with 1981 at 11.4C. Either way it will be broken today.
ReplyDeleteNumerous records shattered across southern Manitoba so far today... and we're still not even at peak warmth of the day yet. Some records include:
ReplyDeleteMorden 17.1°C (old 11.2°C in 2012)
Portage 13.3°C (old 12.9°C in 1981)
Brandon 13°C (old 12.2°C in 1910)
Winnipeg 11.6°C (old 11.4°C in 1981)
This list is obviously incomplete. Many others communities have broken records.
Morden's high is easily it's warmest temperature for so early in the year on record. In other words, since 1904 they've never reached 17°C this early in the year.
DeleteAs fantastic as this is the odds are against us for this to continue. Stats show that generally a warm March is not necessarily followed by a warm April. For instance take a look at 2012. March well obviously was historically warm but April was not. In fact the opposite. I believe April was colder than normal.
ReplyDeleteSo I say get out an enjoy it because after tomorrow it could be quite awhile before we see these temps again. There are still hints that a below normal regime will return later this month.
April 2012 was actually quite warm, finishing about a degree and a half above normal and tying 28th warmest April. That might have a bit to do with the lack of snow at the end of March and to start April. The snow usually keeps our temperatures a little lower in early April but without snow it is warmer. So athough it was sort of a cooler pattern, it still finished above normal.
DeleteYeah true enough. it's just because March was so historically warm that it made April seems somewhat colder.
ReplyDeleteHowever i'm not sure things we'll be the same this year. A much cooler last part March and start to April is still expected.
Either way, in no way is this warm spell comparable to 2012. In 2012 it continued right through the end of the month. That's not gonna be the case this year.
ReplyDeleteOh for sure, it does look cooler later this month. However, we can't ignore the fact that it is in fact impressive we are already challenging 2012 records right now, just 3 years later. That doesn't mean the rest of spring will follow 2012's path however.
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg is pretty much the coolest spot right now in the south. Almost all areas south and west of Winnipeg are all in the mid to high teens right now.
ReplyDeleteJJ, just how bad does it look later this month? are we talking about a return of significantly below normal temps?
ReplyDeleteNo it does not look like a return to significantly below normal temperatures. Again, the lack of snow is a plus and will help to keep us a little warmer than it could have been otherwise. Probably in general we wont be far from normal. Some colder days, some warmer days... Tough to say for sure this far out I have to admit.
DeleteJJ, any idea why areas around Winnipeg (not just south and west) are a few degrees warmer then us? Even though its very nice weather, it annoys me how areas around the city are warmer.
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Warmest temperatures are to our west and southwest... My personal take on that is.... Mainly because that is simply where the core of the warm air mass is right now. That warmer air is slowly advecting eastward this afternoon and we should manage to reach at least 13°C at the airport, possibly 14°C before the sun begins setting. I suppose the straight south wind down the valley isn't very helpful for us neither. A more downslope westerly component would have been better. Note how Dauphin shot up 8°C in 1 hour around lunch (from 6 to 14°C) as winds switched from northeast to southwest (might be partly because that northeast wind was off frozen Lake Dauphin). Just an example of how wind direction can play a role in temperatures though.
Deletejj Would this resemble 2010 which if memory serves me was very similar Arctic minimum plus 3 years
ReplyDeleteI'm not very familiar with what 2010's main pattern was. This year has somewhat resembled 2010 up to now in Winnipeg specifically (temperature trend - January was very similar, February was chillier but not nearly as cold as this year's, March warmup similar timing to this year & precipitation/snow pack similarly low like this year & both El Nino winters). However, this certainly does not mean this similarity will continue and I'm definitely not implying it will continue.
DeleteA few select record highs today:
ReplyDeleteMorden 18.3°C (old 11.2°C in 2012) & earliest ever to reach at least 17°C since 1904
Portage 16.6°C (old 12.9°C in 1981)
Brandon 15.0°C (old 12.2°C in 1910)
Winnipeg 13.2°C (old 11.4°C in 1981)
More records likely to fall tomorrow. Likely will be warmest south of the Trans Canada again, especially along the US border. I'm thinking 14-16°C in Winnipeg before colder air moves in. If we remain quite cloudy or the cold air moves in earlier than expected, we may not reach as warm.
Unfortunately, looks like the colder air will be moving in earlier rather than later today. This will really limit our highs today in Winnipeg. It is possible we wont be breaking the old record of 14.4°C in 2012. Warmer temperatures with records possible closer to the US border. Cooler week with highs in the low to mid single digits Monday through Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteWell, it looks like we will break the record today. Already 13.9C at YWG with still some warming time left. We'll see what happens.
ReplyDeleteOnly up to 14.0C at 3:00, and models indicate temps peaking at 3:00. Still, we may be able to sneak up 0.5C in the next little bit..
DeleteOnly reached 14.3°C at the airport so far before things cooled down. Will have to wait until 5 pm to see if warming is finished yet or not at the airport. Lots of 15's within city limits though.
ReplyDeleteIf the sun had come out earlier we likely would have broken the record today.
DeleteGo figure, the sun comes out now that it's beginning to cool down. Always something that keeps Winnipeg cooler than everybody else. Hope you all enjoyed this nice taste of Spring because it could be quite sometime before it gets this warm again and by that time it won't be as spectacular as it is now.
ReplyDeleteWe now return to normal weather early this week and then below normal by the end of the upcoming work week. We may even approach minus 20s for an overnight low by next weekend especially Saturday. And that's without snow on
the ground. Wow. So temps will be much cooler to finish off the month than what we have now. Mind boggling isn't it but it doesn't come as a surprise. Lots of very cold air to the north still so winter is not necessarily over just yet. Put it this way, I wouldn't put away my Parkas and snowbrushes just yet.
Consensus continues to grow for a below normal pattern later this month and even going into April. Big shocker, eh? Not.
However as the old saying goes, there are never guarantees in weather so knows, it could turn out better than it looks right now but the chances of that are slim. One way or other with no snow on the ground it's still hard to believe that we'll get locked into a cold pattern although around here anything's possible.
ReplyDelete