Tuesday, 11 November 2014

First Snowfall Accumulation of The Season

     Lake-enhanced snow last night provided our first accumulative snowfall of the season in Winnipeg. Generally, about 1 cm fell, the first accumulation since late April. This ties as 14th latest first accumulative snowfall of the fall season, since 1872. The latest first snowfall accumulation was on November 21, 1963. The fall of 1963 just so happened to feature both the warmest fall and warmest October on record.

     More snow is on the way tonight and tomorrow. Snow should begin sometime around late afternoon or in the evening and continue through at least the morning tomorrow. More scattered light flurry activity may continue through the afternoon. Generally 2-5 cm is expected.

     Any sign of warmer weather is still extremely far on the horizon. Overnight lows in the minus teens and highs in the minus single digits are expected through the remainder of the week. An enhanced push of colder air this coming weekend will make it difficult to exceed -10°C for a couple days early next week.

22 comments:

  1. I've started gathering the data for the 2014 thunderstorm season posts. I plan to post the Manitoba thunderstorm season stats sometime in late November if I'm not too busy. Note it will be posted on A Weather Moment. The Canada-wide post will have to wait until December.

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  2. Lake effect snowsqualls starting to develop now in the lee of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba at this hour. 10+ cm of snow possible locally under these bands tonight. Could be a close call for Winnipeg with a slight chance the east end may get into these bands from Lake Winnipeg. Either way, some flurries will be possible through the night with a couple cm possible by tomorrow afternoon, higher if snowsqualls bands reach the city.

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  3. Well, so far nothing is materializing off lake Winnipeg. Had a weak squall earlier but it has since weakened out. Looks like the action thus far tonight has been south of lake Manitoba, where a nice squall has setup roughly from Portage towards Carman and southward but even that squall does not look overly intense but nonetheless, snow is accumulating in that area.

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    1. So far it does appear Lake Manitoba snowsqualls are dominating right now. Note that lake effect snow tends to be extremely fluffy as well so it wouldn't take much to get a decent accumulation. Nonetheless, will be interesting to see if any reports come tomorrow.

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  4. Looks like there's some squalls coming off lake Winnipeg now, and it looks to me like they are moving more SSW and thus migh clip the city.. we'll just half to wait.

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  5. Did you put your bike away JJ?

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    1. Haha, no not yet! Not enough snow yet to justify not biking. I may seem crazy to some, but taking the bus is a hassle when it can take 1 hour to get back home!

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    2. You must have some beefy tires I have the thin road bike tires and no way would go out in this!

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  6. Periods of light snow to continue through most of the day today. I haven't heard many snowfall measurements downwind of the lakes yet. Only ones I've seen so far are 3.6 cm northeast of Portage and 2.5 cm in Emerson. I'd be curious to know how much fell in Portage however, given the fact they were under a heavier band for a good part of the night. Nonetheless, looks like there wasn't as much snow as Environment Canada had anticipated overall.

    Coldest day so far this season will be Friday. Morning lows potentially as low as -16 to -18°C thanks to clearer skies. Wont reach much, if at all, over -10°C.

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  7. Jj Its been along time since I recall 24 hour moving temp chart with only a 2C range -6.4 to -4.3 on Robs obs.
    What is the Wpg record for least temp variation in a 24 hr ( consecutive). period . 0.0?

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    1. A daily variation of 2.1°C is not hugely uncommon. Even smaller variations have occurred numerous times in the past. More recently, on November 11, 2008 the variation was just 0.5°C. In fact, the two-day period of November 11-12, 2008 only had a variation of 1.0°C with a low of 0.1°C on the 11th and a high of 1.1°C on the 12th.

      There were also some stable periods in March 2010, including a variation of just 0.9°C on March 11.

      The smallest daily variation recorded was 0.0°C on December 31, 1926.... However, back then they only used whole degrees Fahrenheit. As a result, it is possible (and likely), the variation was probably a bit higher. Excluding that December 31, 1926 variation, the November 11, 2008 variation of 0.5°C would tie as the smallest daily variation.

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  8. JJ, are there any signs of possible warming by December or are we headed towards another brutal December?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Hard to believe December would be as bad as last year's 6th coldest December on record. It may be cold, but I really doubt it'll be as bad as last year. Nonetheless, it's just too far for me to say for sure how December will be.

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  9. Computer problems this morning so didn't get a forecast up. Nonetheless, starting to see signs of a system for Sunday which could bring some accumulating snows and strong winds...

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  10. Lots of sun today and tomorrow with highs around -8°C... Another cold start tomorrow similar to this morning. Weak system, as mentioned above, for Sunday. 2-4 cm not out of the question and with strong winds developing late in the day, some blowing and drifting in the evening. Could be some lake enhanced bands again in the northwesterly flow late in the day if the lakes are still warm enough.

    Very cold on Monday with a high of only around -10°C or so. Cold continues through the week. Hints of some milder conditions (less consistent cold basically) late month have returned... hopefully these hints stay.

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  11. Jj Near 530 am a reading of -18.4C was reported on Shaws cable weather channel. Was that a computer glitch or was it really that cold as in our first below Zero -1°F day of this Fall? Must mean theSanta ClausParade is today.
    PS the sun issssss stillcoming out n'est pas?

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    1. Low was -19.1°C at the airport this morning. A sunnier day today has been ruined by low cloud, however we should see some sun later this afternoon, hopefully before sunset. Some snow again tomorrow, likely 1-3 cm, perhaps more under any lake enhancement. Strong northwesterlies develop in the afternoon with blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

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    2. 3 cm new snow in Charleswood this morning. 1.3 mm water equivalent. 3 cm snow on ground. For the record, we received our first significant snowfall of the season last year almost to the day on Nov 17th (6 cm)

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    3. Didn't get that much here with 1.9 cm up to 8 am. Will get an up to date measurement up to this evening soon.

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    4. Total for me all day yesterday through to this morning was approximately ~2 mm of water equivalent. Probably about 3 cm total. Snow depth appears to be about 3 cm this morning.

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    5. I measured a total of 1.6 mm WE, 4 cm snow total. SOG 2 cm this morning with a lot of blowing and drifting yesterday.

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