After a one-day warmup yesterday, which tragically was still a colder than normal day, colder air has returned today with highs around 10 degrees below normal. Normal high today is about +3°C. Unfortunately, another -20°C night is expected tonight, some 15 degrees below normal.
A clipper system will usher in some warmer air for Saturday. Unfortunately, winds look to be an issue however, coming from the south at close to 40 km/h. Some snow will be possible, but there remains some uncertainty on amounts. At this time, only small accumulations, if any, are expected. There may even be some mixed precipitation in the evening as even warmer air moves in. Temperatures may exceed the freezing mark in the evening.
As has been the story of the winter, warmups are always very brief. And so, colder air starts moving in by Sunday, and therefore the beginning of next week looks colder than normal. By then, normal highs are around 5°C.
For those hoping for a warmer than normal April, the odds are against us. This December to March period will end up around 10th to 12th coldest on record since 1872 (finalized stat to come in the March summary). Unfortunately, of the 20 coldest December to March periods, NONE were followed by an April that was warmer than the 1872-2013 average April mean of 3.5°C. As such, a warm April is highly improbable. However, for those wishing for warmer weather, here's hoping we can buckle that trend this year.
Thursday, 27 March 2014
Saturday, 22 March 2014
Merciless Winter Continues
And we thought March last year was cold... Turns out this March will very likely finish colder than last year's. This winter has been relentless with now 4 consecutive months averaging over 3 degrees colder than normal; 3 of which averaging over 5 degrees colder than normal.
In fact, depending on if warmer weather does materialize next weekend, this December to March period could potentially end up as the coldest in 116 years, since the winter of 1898-1899. It is remarkable that we are currently seeing conditions comparable to the frigid late 1800's when winters like this were common. The finalized stat will come in the March summary at the end of the month.
Another night in the mid -20's is expected tonight unfortunately. The cold conditions are expected to continue through much of the work week next week. The signs beyond that are unclear at this time.
Be sure to vote in the latest poll: when do you think the winter snow pack will disappear in Winnipeg? Answer will be determined using my weather data here in south St Vital. The top 5 latest dates for this to occur are below.... notice that last year featured the 3rd latest. Tragically, this is after the third earliest loss of winter snow pack in 2012 when it disappeared by March 14.
In fact, depending on if warmer weather does materialize next weekend, this December to March period could potentially end up as the coldest in 116 years, since the winter of 1898-1899. It is remarkable that we are currently seeing conditions comparable to the frigid late 1800's when winters like this were common. The finalized stat will come in the March summary at the end of the month.
Another night in the mid -20's is expected tonight unfortunately. The cold conditions are expected to continue through much of the work week next week. The signs beyond that are unclear at this time.
Be sure to vote in the latest poll: when do you think the winter snow pack will disappear in Winnipeg? Answer will be determined using my weather data here in south St Vital. The top 5 latest dates for this to occur are below.... notice that last year featured the 3rd latest. Tragically, this is after the third earliest loss of winter snow pack in 2012 when it disappeared by March 14.
Table: Top 5 latest dates for winter snow pack to disappear (reach 0 cm) since 1955
Saturday, 15 March 2014
More Snow; Cold Prevails
It appears Old Man Winter is not finished with us yet. Temperatures dipped to -24.5°C at Winnipeg airport this morning, and we'll likely only reach around -15°C today for a high. Lows dip slightly below -20°C again tonight.
Things get more interesting tomorrow as a clipper system moves in. A strong southerly flow will usher in warmer weather, but will also be accompanied by more snowfall. Snow is expected to begin mid or late afternoon tomorrow and continue in the evening. A quick 3-5 cm is expected. However, with southerly winds of 40 gusting up to 60 km/h, there will be some blowing snow in the RRV.
There is some uncertainty in regards to another clipper system for Monday night. Consensus at this point is for little snowfall in the Winnipeg area, but the NAM weather model is furthest north at this point giving another couple cm. Will keep chances for snow as a result and will have to watch the next few runs. Nonetheless, it looks mild on Monday with highs near zero.
Beyond that, below normal temperatures are expected to prevail, as seen in the NAEFS model image below (basically showing certainty of generally below normal temperatures during the last week of March). There will be some brief warmer periods at times, but generally, winter is not going anywhere anytime soon. There is also the potential for more snow late next week.
Things get more interesting tomorrow as a clipper system moves in. A strong southerly flow will usher in warmer weather, but will also be accompanied by more snowfall. Snow is expected to begin mid or late afternoon tomorrow and continue in the evening. A quick 3-5 cm is expected. However, with southerly winds of 40 gusting up to 60 km/h, there will be some blowing snow in the RRV. There is some uncertainty in regards to another clipper system for Monday night. Consensus at this point is for little snowfall in the Winnipeg area, but the NAM weather model is furthest north at this point giving another couple cm. Will keep chances for snow as a result and will have to watch the next few runs. Nonetheless, it looks mild on Monday with highs near zero.
Beyond that, below normal temperatures are expected to prevail, as seen in the NAEFS model image below (basically showing certainty of generally below normal temperatures during the last week of March). There will be some brief warmer periods at times, but generally, winter is not going anywhere anytime soon. There is also the potential for more snow late next week.
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