Friday, 25 April 2014

Gloomy Times

Snow this morning
     About 12 mm of rain fell over Winnipeg Wednesday evening through yesterday. This was the greatest rainfall since September. Rain changed to snow around 6 pm last night and as of 8 am this morning, I have measured 3.0 cm of accumulation here in south St Vital. Thankfully, no more accumulation is expected  today and the snow will likely melt this afternoon with a high near 7°C.

      We should be thankful for the small amount of snow we did receive however. 15-25 cm of snow is expected to have fallen yesterday and today in the Thunder Bay area of northwestern Ontario. In addition, snow depths in northern Ontario are still high in spots, including in Armstrong north of Lake Superior where snow depths remain at near half a metre.

     As for the forecast, a nice Saturday is expected tomorrow with highs near 11°C. The day will start off fairly sunny but clouds will increase in the afternoon.

     Winds will increase on Sunday sustained at 30-45 km/h from the east/southeast and skies will be fairly cloudy. A Colorado Low to our south could have impacts on southern Manitoba Sunday and Monday... but there remains uncertainty at this time about who will be getting significant rainfall and how much could fall. Stay tuned over the next couple days for updates!

     No significant warmup is expected in the foreseeable future.


  1. The photos tab has been completely revamped... Slideshows now display some of my favourite photo captures since 2007. Note that there is music, you just have to click on the speaker button at the top left of each slideshow! You can also make them full screen by clicking on the resize buttom at the top right of each slideshow! Enjoy!

    In case you wondered, the slideshows and music are courtesy of photosnack.. a service for social media and blogs.

    Note that I've also added some special photos from Minnedosa... views of the town from the top of a hill. These photos can be found under the ''across Manitoba'' slideshow.

    Within the next couple weeks, I will also be adding new data and new cities to the record books page.

  2. Overall, turning out to be a pleasant weekend... should reach around 11°C today and 10°C tomorrow. Today will be the sunniest, but we should still see some increasing cloud this afternoon. A mix of sun and cloud tomorrow.

    Although there is consensus among most models at this point that we will see a decent rain on Monday, I'm still being a little cautious. Hard to say just how much a high to our northeast will keep the rain from spreading into our area initially. Nonetheless, 5-15 mm is not out of the question if the rain manages to push north enough into our area.

    As for the long range, still no signs of warming up significantly... In fact, May looks to start below normal at this point (normal highs by then are in the mid teens around 15-17°C). And honestly, if I had to put a bet, I'd bet May will be another below normal month... This same-old persistent pattern just doesn't look to change much at all in the foreseeable future.

  3. A fairly cloudy day today.. with a bit of sun peaking through the cloud this morning. We should reach around 10°C today... but with the wind, it will definitely not feel very warm. East-southeast winds of 35 to 45 km/h are likely this afternoon with gusts up to 60 km/h.

    My thought for tomorrow's Colorado Low is still a little blurred. I'm not very confident about just how far north the rain will manage to reach. I could see a scenario where the drop-off ends up north of Winnipeg but also a scenario where it is just to our south. As what seems to happen incredibly frequently with these types of systems, Winnipeg could end up right on the edge. This is noted in the variety of rainfall amouns given by models... ECMWF only gives us about 3 mm of rain, while others give 15-25 mm. So overall, just keep in mind it could be quite a rainy day tomorrow if things end up further north.

    A new poll has been added for the rainfall tonight and tomorrow.

    Tuesday looks pleasant with lots of sun and temperatures reaching around 10 to 12°C. The Colorado Low begins to wrap around some precipitation into southern Manitoba on Wednesday. Showers AND snow will be possible. Significant accumulations not expected, just some light precipitation. So yes, we will be a good 10°C below normal for temperatures Wednesday.

  4. Some bad news... Very high chances of below normal temperatures have returned in the long range forecasts (see attached link at the bottom of this comment)... indicating a high chance of a cold first half of May. This does not surprise me at all... not only do cold Marches and Aprils tend to be followed by cold Mays, but Mays have trended cold in the last couple decades; both of these factors combined would historically give a fairly good chance of a colder than normal May.

    May following a cold April....:
    This April is on track to be somewhere between 17th and 25th coldest. Of the top 25 coldest Aprils since 1872, 18 (72%) were followed by a May that was colder than the 1872-2013 average May mean of 11.2°C. 10 (40%) of those Mays averaged over 2°C below the average.

    May following a cold March-April period....:
    This March to April period is on track to among the top 16 coldest since 1872. Of the top 20 coldest March-April periods, 14 (70%) were followed by a May that was colder than the 1872-2013 average May mean of 11.2°C.

    A growing trend of cold Mays...
    Winnipeg has not had a top 30 warmest May since 1991 (23 years ago).

  5. Thanks to everyone who voted in the rainfall poll! Average vote is 9 mm...

    So far we've had about 3-4 mm. I don't think we'll see a whole lot more today with perhaps another 3-6 mm with scattered showers this morning and afternoon. Perhaps a little bit more if the rain is heavier than I'm expecting. Windy nonetheless from the east at around 30 km/h... In fact, we've got several windy days to endure in the next few days with winds of 30 km/h everyday until at least Thursday.

    Tomorrow looks like one of the nicer days this week with plenty of sun and temperatures reaching between 10-12°C as I mentioned yesterday. Wednesday will be cloudy with chance of showers and flurries and only reaching mid single digits. The remainder of the week looks to remain much colder than normal.

  6. Looks like the rain shield managed to reach far enough north, with 9-10 mm in Winnipeg so far, another 3-6 mm possible before the end of the day.

  7. Hate to say this, but I am starting to think that 2014is beginning to look like another 2009. Remember 2009? when summer finally showed up in September.

    1. Except so far this year we've been much colder than in 2009. I don't know what summer will bring, but for May at least I'm not optimistic things will change much.

  8. Grand totals of rainfall from yesterday in Winnipeg:
    Charleswood 13.0 mm
    South St Vital (me) 11.4 mm
    The Forks 9.6 mm
    Airport 8.8 mm