Friday, 23 May 2014

The Tables Have Turned!

     After half a year of generally colder than normal conditions, it appears we have FINALLY turned the corner (at least for now)!

     Today will be one word: spectacular! The sun will stay with us all day as temperatures reach high 20's. I'm anticipating a high around 28 or 29°C in Winnipeg. Winds will be brisk out of the south, but given the heat it will be refreshing. I don't anticipate any storm activity around the city today.

     Tomorrow will be the hottest day of this warm spell as temperatures soar into the low 30's (assuming lots of sunshine). I'm anticipating a high between 31 and 33°C in Winnipeg, which would be the first 30°C day in May since 2007 when we hit a record 31.3°C on May 9. If we manage to reach 32°C, it would be the first time to do so in May since 1995. Note that the old daily record high tomorrow is 32.7°C in 1980. Will be interesting to see how warm we get...

850 mb temperatures (approximately 1.5 km above sea level). Strong southwest flow bringing in 850 mb temps in high teens should be sufficient for highs in the low 30's across southern Manitoba tomorrow. Image courtesy of COD weather.

     Humidity will also be on the increase with dewpoints in the mid teens expected tomorrow. This could give humidex values in the mid 30's, noticeable but not extreme. A thunderstorm is possible throughout the day, especially early morning and again in the evening. Lack of shear and lack of large scale triggers may hinder severe potential, but a severe storm can't be ruled out across southern Manitoba nonetheless.

     Sunday looks unsettled as a trough and cold front sweep through. Showers and thunderstorms are likely throughout the day as a result. Severe storms are possible but not hugely likely.

     As of now, it appears we really have turned the corner. Generally normal to above normal conditions are expected to persist for the foreseeable future. However, rain and storms will be possible during the work week next week... details to come as the events draw closer.


  1. High of 25.6°C already as of noon today... so 28-29°C seems certain at this rate. I'm hoping we stay just as sunny tomorrow because if we do, we certainly will come close to or will be breaking a record.

  2. All the way up to 29.4°C so far this afternoon at the airport. Based on how things went today, 32-34°C seems even more probable tomorrow if we get similar amounts of sunshine.

  3. High of 29.6°C today.... Doesn't looks very likely we'll see any storm activity tonight. We'll have to wait until tomorrow night.

  4. I'm anticipating a high between 32 and 34°C today in Winnipeg, assuming we maintain consistent sunshine until early/mid afternoon. There is a risk for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening... will have to watch for any boundaries that setup this afternoon. The main risk today is flooding rains due to low shear which will cause storm motion to be quite slow. Training and stationary storms are likely. Hail and strong winds can't be ruled out but they aren't the main threat here today.

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely again tomorrow so generally an unsettled and moist day. Will have to monitor sunshine levels. If we manage to get early day sunshine to build up enough instability, severe storms are possible to develop along the cold front. However, low shear again may limit things.

    Showers and storms appear possible again on Tuesday, but the risk is not extremely high.

    1. Oh and by the way, the thundercast forecasts now run from 12 am to 12 am instead of 6 am to 6 am. After experimenting with 6 am to 6 am for a bit, I found I preferred working with the 12 am to 12 am timeframe.

    2. What is the shortest time between a record low and hi inthe same month Jj. Couldn't help but notice a low of-1°C aday or two ago Is there a name for this phenomenae when it occurs on the same day.

  5. Looks like a bunch of towering cumulus blowing up to our west. Perhaps the beginning of thunderstorm development.

  6. Severe TSWs are out for that SE corner of SK again. Is that the Lightning TS Capital of Canada. So close!?

  7. High of 33.3°C at the airport today... breaking the old record of 32.7°C in 1980. Pretty impressive considering that May 1980 heat wave was one of the worst in May history here.

    Unfortunately I missed the storms this afternoon because of work but looks like we'll continue to see some showers and storms this evening.

  8. I've only got about 5 mm so far here in south St Vital. However, 26 mm as of 6 pm in St Adolphe just south of the city according to Manitoba Agriculture... more storms heading for the area.

  9. The storms are still going and more firing up near Carman. This certainly has been longer lasting than expected. More storms possible overnight and tomorrow.

    An early look at later next week shows potential for a severe weather outbreak in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Will be monitoring that closely next week.