Monday, 18 August 2014

Enjoy the Warmth While it Lasts

     Turned out to be quite the thunderstorm event in the Winnipeg area last night. The south end of the city, especially south of Bishop Grandin, was hardest hit. Long-lived torrential downpours dumped 20-30 mm of rain to this part of the city in just 20 minutes or so. Lighter rainfall amounts in other parts of the city with generally 5-15 mm. Ongoing rains and lightning after the main storm dumped an additional 5 or so mm.

     Here at my place in River Park South, I received 26.7 mm in total last night. Only 11 mm fell at the airport. Here are a few rainfall totals from yesterday and overnight today:

Portage southeast (cocorahs) 38.1 mm
Portage (Mb Agriculture) 35.2 mm
Winnipeg South St Vital 25-35 mm in general
Carman 29.4 mm
St Adolphe 25.7 mm
Portage Southport 16.1 mm
Winnipeg The Forks ~ 15 mm
Winnipeg Charleswood 11 mm

     I've also got a brief video below just for the memories (nothing overly special)... not much visual, mainly audio. I managed to catch a couple impressive thunderclaps, the first was following a close cloud-to-ground strike which you can faintly see in the video. Note the torrential rain... it was heavy like that for perhaps 15 minutes in general.

video
     A few scattered showers are possible today. Another thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but nothing like what we saw last night. They will be more isolated in nature today. Due to cloud cover, we'll likely only reach low 20's.

     Enjoy the warmth tomorrow and Wednesday! Lots of sun tomorrow with a high around 26-28°C. A mix of sun and cloud for the first part of Wednesday with a high possibly reaching 30°C (depending on cloud coverage). Increasing cloud late in the day on Wednesday associated with an approaching system and cold front. Showers and thunderstorms look likely early on Thursday with this.

     At this point, it appears the active pattern continues into next weekend. Both the GFS and GEM models hint at a strong low pressure system affecting us Saturday-Sunday with the potential for a significant rainfall. However, note that the ECMWF is not so keen on this idea. As a result, still lots of uncertainty about next weekend. A significant cool down looks likely behind the system for early-mid next week. Too early to say how long it will last. Needless to say, enjoy the warmth while it lasts!

52 comments:

  1. Accuweather has released it's fall forecast for Canada and it actually isn't very encouraging for us as the agency is calling for the continuation of the theme for 2014. And that's below normal. Note that accuweather puts it's forecasts together based on the ECMWF(Euro) model. As JJ mentioned, enjoy the warmer weather this week while it lasts because the below normal regime will be returning and I do not see any hints at this point of pattern shift to warmer weather again going into September. There are even some hints of an early frost/freeze. Yikes.

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  2. I would expect anything would seem warmer than the last two years and particularly if that oft rumored El Nino shows up. Even a below aversge SON will seem sauna like compared to last year. I'm not seeing any -30 in the next ninety days a la half november and all of dec. And now back to the back to back thunderstorm days.
    Jj is this due to the Supermoon and meteor shower earlier last week or is my psychic ly challenged crystal ball off kilter again.
    http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/perseid-meteor-shower-tonight-make-most-moonstruck-show-n178936

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  3. Entertaining Audio Video Somewhat like are sparse appearances of storms. DT

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  4. Fog and cloud will gradually dissipate this morning and give way to some sunshine this afternoon. Depending on how long cloud sticks around, highs around 25-28°C expected. Even hotter tomorrow with highs reaching 30°C likely. Could even hit 31-32°C if we get enough sun. Please enjoy it while it lasts! Hard to say when will be the next time we'll see heat like that again!

    Low pressure system and cold front move through southern Manitoba tomorrow night with widespread rains and thunderstorms likely. Can't rule out some severe activity in southwestern Manitoba tomorrow afternoon and evening. Could see a decent rainfall here in Winnipeg tomorrow night and early Thursday with this (10+ mm possible, especially if we see storms).

    Big cool down starts Friday with highs in the high teens to low 20's. Weekend is still uncertain at this time.

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  5. Some cool shots of the fog in Winnipeg this morning: https://twitter.com/CharleneHodgert/status/501714070412988416/photo/1

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  6. Going to be a very close call wether August will be the 11th consecutive colder than normal month. So far we're averaging 20.5°C, but with the big cool down for the end of the month, it will be close. 1981-2010 normal is 18.7°C while the 1984-2013 average is also 18.7°C.

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  7. I feel desparate for an average +.01 month.If we can have back to back thunderstorms perhaps anything is possible.

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    1. I'm quietly hoping we finish -0.1°C below normal to keep the below normal streak alive. If fall is going to be chilly, we'd might as well keep the streak alive!

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  8. JJ, is this cooler weather coming later week going to take us into September?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Too early to say what September will bring for me. I don't think it will last extremely long, we'll likely still see some periods of warmth before summer officially comes to a close.

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  9. Yeah I certainly hope it doesn't last too long.

    JJ, are severe storms possible for Winnipeg tomorrow night?

    Thanks, Anon.

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    1. Don't think severe potential is very high for Winnipeg. Heavy rainfall would probably be the main threat and perhaps some gusty winds. Note that timing is highly questionable at this point. Once again, a big spread between canadian and american models about what will occur here tomorrow night.

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  10. Models are having a very difficult time resolving this system over the next couple days. This is making forecasting very difficult. New NAM model run this morning just threw a curve-ball, not bringing the low through the RRV until early on Friday instead of early tomorrow. I'm not buying into this just yet considering it seems to be the odd one out right now. Another downfall in model land is the thunderstorm activity that has already developed in southwestern Manitoba, North Dakota and SE SK. Models did not see that coming.

    All I'll say is that there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in Winnipeg tonight. That ''clear'' forecast for tonight from EC seems a little suspicious. I'd be quite surprised if it were a perfectly clear night tonight. Best chance for rain and storms looks to be overnight and morning tomorrow. I wont even go into rainfall amounts given the uncertainty. We could see anywhere from nothing to 20+ mm depending on where the rain sets up and if t-storms do occur. Chance of showers will continue throughout the day. The chance continues on Friday.

    I wont even go into what the weekend will hold right now until we get through this most recent system. So far, it looks like we may see another system Saturday-Monday with more rain possible.

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  11. JJ, with that complex of storms in south western Mb/ southeastern SK/ north western ND, do you that they will march into the RRV in form of some sort of precipitation later today?
    Thanks!

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    1. I suspect they'll probably weaken quite a bit or dissipate before reaching us.

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    2. Although, I suppose anything can happen given the fact that complex developed unexpectedly. It's just a wait and see game today.

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  12. Speaking of those storms in southwestern MB, it's very surprising that they aren't severely warned... They are very slow moving, and have some very heavy rain in them. I would not be surprised if there where totals in the Melita area of 50-75 mm+.

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    1. And, there you have it. Just as I was saying my previous comment ec put out warnings for the extreme southwestern MB, with watches for the areas north and west of the warning zone.

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    2. I suppose the rainfall amounts are just sub-severe. Severe would be considered at least 50 mm in 1 hour or less. Highest measured total I have seen so far is 40.6 mm in Bede from Manitoba Agriculture.

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  13. I would say most certainly these storms will reach Winnipeg just because they are on track towards us and I've seen this type of track before from storms originating in SW MB and often they do reach us. The way the upper flow is now moving we have that in our favour for the storm track as well.

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    1. I'm beginning to think this complex will stay together as well, but I still question if it will reach Winnipeg or not.

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    2. Well yes and no.. Yes because it's not showing any signs of weakening, and it looks like there is even some development in front of the main complex. No because it's moving quite slowly and it's got a hell of a long way to go before it gets even into the RRV. We'll just have to watch what it does over the next few hours.

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  14. New GEM this morning now much slower as well with the system, not bringing the rain into Winnipeg until tomorrow afternoon. Nowcasting is the only way to go over the next couple days.

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  15. More and more, tomorrow is looking like a very wet day for the RRV with showers and thunderstorms as the trough very slowly makes its way through the RRV. Severe activity not hugely likely and the main threat would be the heavy rains, similar to today.

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  16. Watching the radar on weatherbug today has convinced me that the perimeter shield phenomona is real. Those clouds and rain? have been nipping at the SW corner of the perimeter for hours with no progress.
    Jj will this take till tomorrow to reach Route 90 Kenaston?

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    1. Unfortunately, the same phenonema occurred earlier this morning.

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  17. looks like a band of very heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms has formed south western or south central mb and south into nd. jj, is this the rain that we are going to get tomorrow??

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  18. Rain with embedded thunderstorms expected to push into the RRV overnight and morning tomorrow from North Dakota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the day as the trough moves extremely slowly through the western RRV... so overall looking like a cloudy and showery day with possible heavy thunderstorms at times.

    Attention then turns to the weekend. Looking more and more likely we'll be affected by a Colorado Low. This system is expected to be extremely moist, resulting in possibly significant rainfall (30+ mm) somewhere in southern Manitoba.

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  19. Unfortunately, much of the rain dissipated before reaching Winnipeg this morning. For the remainder of today, I'm calling it scattered showers for Winnipeg. It wont be an all-day washout, but there will be some periods of rain at times, heavy at times. Can't rule out some thunder, but overally the risk of thunderstorms doesn't look extremely high. 5-15 mm could fall.

    Cloudy day tomorrow again with a continued chance for showers. Not expecting high accumulations.

    Next system to watch is on the weekend as mentioned already. Timing and exact track of the system are questionable as usual with various scenarios painted by models:

    NAM brings the low almost right through Winnipeg and is faster than other models, bringing the rain in on Saturday night.
    GFS is much further west, bringing the low into southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, and is a bit slower with the system. It brings most of our rain late on Sunday.
    GEM is slightly further east than the NAM but is much later, bringing the bulk of the rain Sunday into Monday.
    ECMWF is quite similar to the GEM in track, but is a little bit faster.

    So overall, just keep in mind that part of the weekend will likely be quite soggy with 20+ mm possible sometime between Saturday night and Monday.

    Much cooler as well for the weekend and early-mid next week with highs in the mid teens to near 20°C. Thankfully, there are hints of warming back up late in the week, so summer may not be over just yet.

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  20. By the way, some impressive rainfall totals came out of southwestern Manitoba yesterday. Here's some rainfall totals yesterday through to this morning:

    Just north of Bottineau, ND 82-92 mm
    Bede 55.4 mm
    Wawanesa 41.5 mm
    Boissevain 29.4 mm

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    1. Watched those intense storms last night on the bug. Used ND Locations Westhope, Portal, Antler, Botineau, Maida, St John, And Walhala and Pembina as Locations The intensity of the lightning between Carduff and Antler was impressive. I suspect Melita got another soaking but didnt see it.

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  21. Jj what are the odds of thunderstorms today?

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    1. Slight risk of a weak storm today, but the risk is low.

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  22. Lots of cells popping up around the city at this time. So far, not seeing much lightning at all so mainly just dowpours. They are slow-moving so localized significant rainfall possible for anyone who gets under these cells for a long time.

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  23. Severe t-storm watches issued, but this isn't for a widespread severe outbreak type of scenario. It is issued mainly due to the potential for slow-moving cells dropping 50+ mm very locally. A few funnel clouds have also been reported, but these are expected to be quite weak.

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  24. We're very close to a dewpoint record for today. Max so far is 21.5°C in the 6 pm observation. Old record max dewpoint for today is 21.7°C in 1969.

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  25. Could be a very active evening for Winnipeg. Thunderstorm that has sat over us for the past hour or two is weakening, but additional development is occurring in the west end. Incredible rainfall totals in central parts of the city including 52 mm at the UofW downtown and 32 mm in Charleswood. Locally higher totals possible, especially in the Osborne Village area. Will update totals at the top of the hour.

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  26. Rainfall totals up to around 7 pm:

    UofW (downtown) 64 mm
    Charleswood 41 mm
    River Park South (me) 14.2 mm up to 7:06 pm

    Strongest cell appears to be along the south perimeter at this time. Getting loud thunder and lightning out of it here at this time.

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    1. Airport up to 12 mm and The Forks up to 50 mm as of 7 pm.

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  27. I wonder how many people can say that they expected this, this evening. I'd' say probably nobody. And too make matters worse we may get walloped with rains on the weekend with that colorado low.

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    1. To say it would happen to Winnipeg is even more unpredictable. That storm was very isolated and stationary right over central Winnipeg. Amounts dropped off away from it quickly with just around 15 mm here in South St Vital... Basically a non-event for us.

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  28. Looks like things are settling down now. Not much in the way of lightning activity now just mainly some light showers so the system is definately weakening.

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  29. Speaking of that colorado, JJ what's latest on that potential storm for the weekend?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Duration and amounts a big question mark. Looks likely at this point we'll at least see rain Saturday night into early Sunday (10-30 mm possible). After that there is disagreement on wether we'll see more rain or not.

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  30. Up to 15.9 mm here in south St Vital so far. Rain and thunderstorms remain possible through to the early overnight hours.

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  31. JJ, did we end up breaking the daily dewpoint record for today?

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    1. No, we did not. Maximum observation was 21.5°C at 6 pm.

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    2. To bad, It have given the media an easy reason for all the rain... or wait the media dos not even no what the dewpoint is - let alone dewpoint records which are not even available outside of your amazing blog!!

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  32. Kudos for the record keeping and th e blog Jj

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  33. Consensus has been reached for the system this weekend... In other words, models are in good agreement at this time. However, of course, some changes can still occur. Will have a new post up later this morning with details.

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  34. 66 mm yesterday near grant and stafford

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