November actually began fairly mild... Our first accumulative snowfall of the season actually occurred on November 10, tying 14th latest first snowfall accumulation of fall since 1872. The latest was on November 21, 1963. 1981-2010 normal is October 18.
The dramatic turn to winter mid-month was by far the main story of November this year. The cold snap was unusually prolonged and lasted through to the end of the month. Lows dipped into the -20's on many occasions. The coldest low was -29.6°C on the 26th, the coldest temperature in November since 1996. Temperatures only topped out at -19.3°C on the 26th and 30th, the coldest highs in November since 1985.
In the end, November finished with an average of -8.8°C (4.2°C below normal), the 22nd coldest November on record since 1872. It was also the coldest since 1996 and the 9th coldest in the last century.
Looking at the future, luckily a warmup is in store for mid December. Models are in very high agreement that above normal temperatures will be dominant beginning next week, and this warmth may last more than just a few days. Questions still remain about how long the warmup will last however, as there has been talk of cooling down later in the month. Nonetheless, after the ridiculous cold of November, this warmup will be very welcomed.
November was also dry with just around 14 or 15 mm of precipitation recorded in Winnipeg. This came on the heels of a 3rd driest October. With only around 60 mm of precipitation this fall, it was the 18th driest fall since 1872.
Note that I didn't use the airport for precipitation data because it tends to severely underestimate precipitation totals during snowfall events. No precipitation was recorded on some days despite 1-2 cm of snowfall, which is unreasonable. The Forks recorded some precipitation and therefore, was used. However, The Forks seems to have overestimated snowfall during that Nov 28-29 event, and thus, the airport was used for those two days... Complicated precipitation records in this city....
ReplyDeleteJJ, with this warmup coming, do you think there's chance we may see temps climbing above the freezing mark especially later next week?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
It definitely looks possible, we may nudge above zero for a day or two.
DeleteMy fall stat summary has been posted on A Weather Moment this morning. The Manitoba t-storm season summary should be posted sometime late next week if everything goes well. The Canada-wide summary should be posted the weekend after that (so in 2 weeks).
ReplyDeleteAs for the long range, I have to say it hasn't looked this optimistic since October basically. Much above normal conditions looking more and more likely starting mid week next week after a brief cool down Monday. Could get several days of above normal conditions (with some near and above zero days) if things go as forecast right now. So far, don't see an end to the warmer conditions yet, but as mentioned before there has been ramblings of cooling down closer to the end of the month... but that's too far right now to confirm.
Tough temperature forecast for late week due to wind direction. With a straight south wind up the valley, it might be difficult to reach record high temperatures for Winnipeg. Note EC's +7°C for Thursday but the NAM is only giving us -1°C... I think we'll be somewhere in between as -1°C seems a little too low and +7°C might be a little high.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, looks like the super-warm conditions wont last very long, with a cool down expected Sunday-Tuesday. However, at least slightly above normal conditions look to persist next week, it just doesn't look as extreme as it did before, which I suppose isn't a big surprise.
Heck, even slightly above normal temps is better than what we've endured the past 3 weeks.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely. Last December is still fresh in the mind... Very thankful this year is not a repeat.
DeleteYeah, no kidding. I know that could still change in a hurry but it would seem like we are heading towards a less snowier winter than the last 2 which would be a welcome change as well.
ReplyDeleteLess snow would help bring on an earlier spring so I personally hope we don't get too much snow. I feel optimistic we'll have an earlier spring next year after two consecutive near-record late springs.
DeleteYeah, I certainly hope so as well. We deserve that much and more.
ReplyDeleteStubborn low cloud does not appear to want to leave anytime soon here in the RRV. Unfortunately, we're going to have to wait until we get a good switch in the wind direction before we even have a chance of getting rid of the low stratus. This will help keep our highs below record values the next few days, likely only reaching around the freezing mark or slightly above today through to Saturday. That stubborn south wind will also continue, making it feel much colder than it really is. Overall, we've been robbed of a good warm spell, but at least it's not -30°C!
ReplyDelete