Some patchy frost is possible again tonight but lows don`t look to be as cold. The next few days actually look quite nice across southern Manitoba with lots of sunshine and seasonal to above seasonal temperatures. Highs in the mid to high teens are anticipated. A slight and brief cool down is expected in the second half of the weekend and to start next week. There is also not much precipitation in the forecast over the next 7 days. A few showers are possible over the weekend with the best chance being on Saturday. Accumulations, if any, look minimal.
Hi JJ. For some reason I can't see my comments posted on the other thread, not sure if there's something wrong there.
ReplyDeleteIs it true we could be heading above normal again for the last half of October?
There were so many comments, that you had to go to the bottom of the page and click load more.
DeleteIt's more that I don't see any major cold outbreaks in the next couple weeks. Some cool downs but nothing major. With the lack of really cold air, we will likely average near to above normal overall.
Thanks. I hope we will actually get a colder November this year and not a repeat of last year.
DeleteDo you think winter will start earlier this year than the last 2 years?
Chances are higher it won't start early this year, that's all I can say based on what I've seen.
DeleteYeah I wasn't expecting an " Early " start to winter. But wouldn't It be highly unlikely for it to not come until early December like the last few years?
DeleteWhen does winter normally settle in by?
And it can change fast, like November 2014 did. That year switched to winter rapidly mid month with lows close to -30C near the end of the month
DeleteLight northwest flow has switched to a southerly flow stabilizing the airport at 4C. Frost not looking terribly likely now. Rob's Obs is actually colder than the airport now
ReplyDeleteYeah the airport will likely be warmer thanks to southerly winds. Still expecting some patchy frost again tonight though -- not widespread.
DeleteThe lowest in the hourly readings was 2.7C, so no frost.
DeleteThat cooldown next week isn't looking as significant as before now?
Any idea when we may see our first flakes?
The clock is ticking for us to see some now at this point in the fall, but it's next to impossible to predict exactly when we will see our first snow this far out. All I can say is that I don't see much of a chance for snow over the next 7 days at least.
DeleteLow of 2.5C at the Airport this morning. Frost was mostly confined to southwestern Manitoba and along the US border. Brandon dropped to -3.1°C and Pierson also dropped below -3°C. Sub-zero temperatures were widespread from Russell and Riding Mountain southward to Hamiota, Brandon, Virden, Melita and Snowflake. Sub-zero temperatures also occurred around Carman and Sprague. We're getting to a point in the fall when it's barely worth mentioning the frost because it's now quite normal to be getting frost.
DeleteYeah I agree. Why did Winnipeg stay warm last night?
DeleteJJ could we hit 20C today? Likely the last of the year?
ReplyDeleteThat was an impressive storm we had tonight!! Is it unusual for a storm that strong this late in the season?
ReplyDeleteIt was impressive with us here in the south end getting the direct hit for once this year. Probably the best lightning I've seen this year.
DeleteThunderstorms in October aren't uncommon here. Winnipeg Airport averages about one thunderstorm every second October. As for storms of this caliber it's hard for me to say. In 2011 however, we had a strong storm move through Winnipeg on October 22! This one tonight reminded me a bit of that one. I also had pea sized hail with some storms on October 25, 2008 at my place.
On average, the thunderstorm season runs from April to October around Winnipeg. Thunderstorms outside this period are uncommon but have been recorded in November, December and March (notably March 2012).
Thanks JJ. I’m in St James and it was still quite impressive here. Some quick downpours but the lightning and thunder was incredible! And yes that March 2012 thunderstorm was truly something, everything about that month was beyond extreme.... and just capped off that incredibly warm winter.
DeleteThose December thunderstorms, most notably the Dec 5th 1966 one, what would have allowed thunderstorms to develop so late in the year? Is it possible that it was an actual heavy rain thunderstorm in December?
A strong low pressure system would have to be in place to produce enough lift to develop thunderstorms in December. Storms at that time of year would be purely system-generated because there just isn't enough daytime heating at the surface to produce surface-based storms that late in the year.
DeleteThanks JJ. That would truly be something to witness in December!
DeleteJJ, will the airport freeze tonight? How’s the outlook looking through mid to late month?
ReplyDeleteWe didn’t freeze last night. But I think we might have a hard freeze tonight. What are your thoughts JJ?
ReplyDeleteGood chance of a widespread frost tonight. The Airport might escape a -2C or colder with the winds switching to southerly overnight off the city. Not really worth mentioning anymore because frost is normal now.
DeleteThanks JJ. The winds have switched the southerly now. Interesting robs Obs is sitting at +0.4C right now while the airport is at +2.5C. Do you think the airport will freeze?
DeleteLows:
DeleteAirport -2.0°C
The Forks -0.2°C
Charleswood -1.5°C
St Vital -2.6°C
It appears everyone has now had their first freeze this season. The Forks had its first freeze this morning, 1 day earlier than its 2000-2016 average first freeze date of Oct 11.
Yep it was certainly a chilly morning out there. It looks warm through this week, but do you think we will be above normal for the rest of the month?
DeleteJJ. I’ve been hearing talk of some snow this weekend. Environment Canada has periods of mixed rain and snow on Saturday with a high of 7C. Now I don’t see how it can snow at that temperature but do you think we’ll see some?
ReplyDeleteModels are showing mostly rain in Winnipeg on Saturday, aided by the fact that the precipitation falls mostly during the day in above freezing temperatures. However, I do think there is the potential for some snow to mix in but with little to no accumulation. Better chance of accumulation north and of west of the city in southwestern Manitoba and the Interlake area.
DeleteThanks JJ. Even to see some flakes would be nice. I don’t see much snow or cold potential through to Halloween after this with temps rebounding to the mid to even high teens. Apparently we could reach 20C again next week! Is this true?
DeleteNex week looks warm compared to normal. 20C might be a stretch but can't rule it out this far out. Wait and see.
DeleteIt is indeed looking quite warm. Do you think this will be summers last Blast before winter sets in?
DeleteTomorrow ( October 14th ) record high is 29.1C in 1988. How is that even possible to get that hot this late? That’s like a July day.
Realistically, it wouldn't feel like a July day given the much lower humidity than what we would see in July in combination with the lower sun angle. Nonetheless, temperatures like that are definitely possible in October in our climate, especially with some southwesterly component to the wind or strong advection from the south as was the case on October 5, 2011 (31.1 high).
DeleteMorden has hit 30C as late as October 16 and 27C as late as October 27, again often a resulting influence of the escarpment.
Thank you for the info! Winnipeg has reached 30C as late as October 6th, all the way back in 1879.
DeleteAnother high i would like to ask you about is November 5th 1975 when it reached 23.9C and December 6th 1939 when it reached 11.7C. How are these highs possible for so late in the season?
JJ is it looking more likely that we will see snow now?
ReplyDeleteJJ the weather network is now saying a high of 3C tomorrow. Is it really going to be that cold? I have a hard time believing that at this point in the season and with no SOG.
ReplyDeleteHow’s the forecast for snow tonight going?
Chance for snow has increased as the area of precipitation is further southeast than previously expected and precipitation should start in the morning, again earlier than it could have been. Some models still keep us as mostly rain but I do think we'll get some snow, especially in the morning. Can't rule out a centimetre or a few centimetres. Tough to say in these situations because of melting on contact.
DeleteThanks JJ. So will this likely be our first accumulating snowfall of the season then?
DeleteDo you think it will be enough to turn the ground white? It’s cold out there around 0C right now, but will it get any colder?
JJ. The weather network radar shows us getting hit with the main band of snow around 1AM. Based on it, we are getting right in the middle of it. Do you think we will have a white ground in the morning?
ReplyDeleteAccumulations vary a lot depending on the surface this morning. Here in South St Vital, most I've measured is 2.5 cm on the lawn chairs. On the grass, it varies quite a bit from 0 cm in the front yard to 0.5 to 1 cm in the back. Note that surfaces above the surface (chairs, tables etc) don't count toward official measurements. Official measurements have to be at the surface.
ReplyDeleteOfficial amount for Winnipeg is 2.0 cm so far (Charleswood - Rob). This makes it the greatest single day snowfall in October since 2009 and the snowiest October since 2012. This shows how much more unusual snow has become in Winnipeg in October compared to the past. We've had a good string of Octobers without significant snowfall now.
DeleteThat’s true. Why is snow in October becoming much rarer now? I don’t like how that’s happening. Yet 2.0cm is still below normal for October.....
DeleteCould just be part of the general ups and downs of climate. Or it could be because of our warming falls.
DeleteYeah that’s true. But things will always be variable in terms of our climate. Nobody really knows what the future of it holds
DeleteJJ. Now is it looking like we are going to hit the 20’s next week?
ReplyDeleteAirport reached 21.1C yesterday. Looks like another good chance at 20C tomorrow and Friday. The remainder of the month looks cooler but variable with milder days and cooler days. Cold outbreaks look brief and not very cold.
DeleteJJ! It looks like we broke the high snowfall record of 1.5cm in 1952!! Is this going to go into the record books?
ReplyDeleteWOW... I didn't even realise that. Today's snow just happened to occur on a day with a small record. Thanks for that.
DeleteYes I was surprised to see that too! Will that be added into the record books soon?
DeleteNote we also broke a snow record back on april 22nd. So that’s both a late season and an early season snow record for this year!
I will be rearranging the snow records when I have the chance to separate Charleswood and the Airport because it appears ECCC won't be considering Charleswood as an official snow measuring station for Winnipeg. So, to be consistent, I'll have to separate Charleswood from the official record.
DeleteI will keep one graph however which has the complete record for anyone who still thinks Charleswood should be considered to continue Winnipeg's snow history, but I would be forced to consider it 'unofficial'.
DeleteThat’s unfortunate that EC won’t consider that official. Rob is kind enough to take the time to take those measurements and now they won’t even take them. Frankly I’m disappointed in our federal weather service.
DeleteI assume it is because of the landscape difference between the residential yard and the Airport field. This is a legit argument. However, I do believe it is still useful in some aspects, such as first snowfall date, last snowfall date, which won't change much at all over just a couple kilometres. When it comes to these kinds of variables (nothing to do with snowfall amounts), I will still use Charleswood as a continuation of Winnipeg's snowfall records.
DeleteThat’s true and I see what you mean. Still I am disappointed in EC being picky about robs station like this especially since they don’t even do the measurements themselves anymore. Is there a way to submit my feedback to them?
DeleteHow will the snowfall amounts records be continued then?
Essentially, if Charleswood is not considered, then there are no snowfall records. If you can believe it, it could even be worse than this. Regina and Saskatoon have had no snow measurements anywhere for the past few years now (not even any volunteer ECCC observer comparable to Charleswood here). The only sources are from Cocorahs but these are sometimes unreliable and aren't even close to being considered anything near official yet.
DeleteFeedback: http://weather.gc.ca/mainmenu/contact_us_e.html
DeleteI should clarify. Charleswood is essentially considered its own identity separate from the official Winnipeg record. For instance, a merged dataset for Winnipeg (including St John's College 1872-1938 and the Airport from 1938-2008, 2008-2013, 2013-present) would not include Charleswood's snowfall records. This is what I have understood from what I have been told recently.
DeleteThanks JJ. I’m going to write Environment Canada on this as I think it’s getting kind of ridiculous. How can we seriously have no snowfall records in a city where it snows from October to April?
DeleteIt might be worth mentioning it as it shows the public is also concerned. This has become a widespread issue around Canada, especially the Prairies.
DeleteYep. I am definitely concerned about the lack of consistency in the precip and especially snowfall records. I will definitely write them
DeleteJJ. Do we have a list of all the first snowfall dates going back to 1872? I would be interested to see the trend. That would be a cool thing if it could go on to the record books website! An idea for you!
ReplyDeleteIs the new record going to be added at some point?
There are different records I want to add but I'll do so when I have the chance. Thanks for the idea/suggestion!
DeleteThank you for all the work you do with it! It is very interesting for statistics lovers like me!
DeleteAnd thank you for your support and interest! It's great to see other passionate people in this subject!
DeleteYes I love following weather statistics! Thank you for chatting with me! May I ask, how did you compile the record books website? How many hours and how much work did it take to do? What was your strategy to be able to collect all this data? I wouldn’t even know where to start lol
DeleteDwnloading data in bulk isn't too difficult once you figure out how. Quality checking is one of the most time consuming. Winnipeg's records and data I've accumulated over many years but could all be done in a few days. Adding it all to the website is also a long job and would take me a week doing it everyday.
DeleteWell you’ve done an amazing job! What exactly do you have to do to “ quality check “ it? What does that involve?
DeleteSimple calculations and observations to find extreme or impossible values. In some cases, the number of errors is so extreme that I have to go through day-by-day, comparing with metar observations (in the case of precipitation, to ensure the amount is in the correct precip type column). Then there's the filling of missing data which is a lot of work as well because in some cases there can be dozens to hundreds of data to fill in.
DeleteWow that is indeed a lot of work. Thank you for doing it all! us weather lovers appreciate it. How do you fill in missing data if it’s not in the EC logs?
DeleteIt's only missing in ECCC's climate archives. I'm not exactly sure why but it has something to do with the automation. The data exist and are retrieved in the synoptic reports. Sometimes data are missing in the synoptic reports as well.
DeleteAmazing but looks like another warm fall for southern Manitoba. October WILL finish above normal. Wait and see how November will be. One things for sure, it won't be as warm as last year.
ReplyDeleteYes I am truly amazed by how warm this has been JJ. I was really betting on a cold fall but as we all know Mother Nature will do what she wants to do. Is it true we could see a low of plus 16C Friday night?? That is what EC is forecasting and that’s just insanely warm. How record breakung would that be?
DeleteHow do we know it won’t be as warm as last year? If we get another November like last year?
DeleteFriday night looks very mild for this time of year with dewpoints in the low teens streaming in possibly. We will likely fall down in the evening on Saturday however which could prevent a record high minimum for the day.
DeleteJust statistics. Extremely unlikely we would have two Novembers in a row that are anomalously warm like last year's.
Dewpoints in the teens at night? Wow. Is this a March 2012 setup? It seems almost as extreme.
DeleteRecall November 2015 averaged -0.9C which was very warm as well. But Mother Nature keeps surprising us. I didn’t think we’d have a third consecutive warm fall. Are we looking at this fall in the top 10 warmest?
DeleteAre dewpoint records likely too?
DeleteWay too early to say.
DeleteDewpoint record will be a stretch because the old records for Friday and Saturday are 15.6C. We won't break a high minimum temperature record either because the record is 15.6C for Saturday which is out of reach. So no, it isn't particularly extreme what is coming. It's happened before. Also, it will only last 1 day, not more than that. For this to be comparable to March 2012 it would have to occur in about a month from now in mid November.
Thanks. I wonder if we will ever see an event as extreme as March 2012 again. Who knows....
DeleteHowever, EC predicting a high of 24C tomorrow which would break the 23.9C record in 1875
A high of 25C predicted for Saturday which would be close to the 1953 record of 25.6C. Those could be broken
If we remain sunny enough yeah we could be challenging some record highs tomorrow. Saturday is a bit more of a stretch and will depend how early the cold front comes through. The Canadian model is much later than the US models on the cold front, explaining that automated 25C in ECCC's forecast.
DeleteThe weather network says 18C and EC says 25C. Which is more likely?
DeleteWhat’s the outlook on early November? I’m hearing talk of a frigid winter airmass being pulled down from the North by Remembrance Day. Any idea on snowfall chances as well?
18C seems more likely than 25C at this point but there's still room for that to change.
DeleteNow forecasting 19C for tomorrow
DeleteJJ. I’m hearing talk of a cold air mass being pulled down here by Remembrance Day. With November starting off cool and progressing to winter like cold by the second half of the month, what are your thoughts on this? It does seem like our pattern will be neutralizing towards the end of October doesn’t it?
ReplyDeleteThey are now calling for a high of 24, a humidex on top of it, and a low of plus 18. WOW!! That’s summerlike. What’s happening JJ?
ReplyDeleteMatt...
ReplyDeleteHad a chat with Rob today and we came to the conclusion to maintain the monthly and yearly records for snowfall using Charleswood. However, I will be more careful with wording and add the location change to the graphs when I have the chance. This means not much change thankfully. I was confused and almost made some big changes because of a conversation that was sparked up on Twitter a few days ago when we had that snow.
Oh that’s good I am glad that they will still be in the records. I think this could all be solved if EC started taking snowfall obs again. I will definitely be writing them and making some suggestions for the future.
DeleteSo does this mean that the record for our October 14th snow will indeed go into the books?
No it won't because it occurred mostly before 12 UTC (7 am CDT/ 6 am CST). The Charleswood station on the EC Archives defines a day as 12 UTC to 12 UTC so that snow was actually recorded as having occurred on Oct 13. Again another annoyance but it actually follows how most of the record database worked from the 1870s to 1950s.
DeleteThat’s interesting. I assumed it would have gone by the actual time here in winnipeg? I noticed in the logs it was listed as October 13th snow
DeleteYeah it's a little annoying but that's how it shows in the Archives. It's a requirement that volunteer observers use that reporting criterion.
DeleteThat’s unfortunate. I see what you mean but to the average person it would just make more sense that we go by calendar day in our time zone. Nonetheless, I suppose we won’t always understand why EC does things the way they do.
DeleteAnother thing I wanted to ask you about was that September 25th 1872 snowfall. Me and rob were chatting about that one. Is it really possible that 18cm of snow fell that early? It just seems a little off to me as we’ve never seen anything like that since.. where did that record come from and is there any historical records or articles on that?
ReplyDeleteI couldn't find anything about that snowstorm. It would definitely be possible, especially in a colder climate such as the one we were in back then. Snowstorms like that that early aren't common in the Red River Valley given our lower elevation, but have occurred more frequently in southwestern Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta where they are at a higher elevation.
DeleteThanks. Now that is something I would love to experience. I really don’t think we will ever see snow in September again. Even October snow is getting rarer which sucks. Because I love the snow. Alberta can get snow early. Such as the early September 2014 storm they had then.
DeleteRegarding our snowfall trends. Are first snows coming later and last snows coming earlier? What’s your take on this? It seems the last few years our snow is coming later and later.
Already 21C as of 1PM. It’s gonna be a record breaker!
ReplyDeleteWarmest temperatures so far today in the Sandilands area (southeastern Manitoba) and the Riding and Duck Mountains. Higher elevations seem to be the warmest today, a consequence of the southeasterly winds which aren't too favourable for us to get very warm. Note that it's only 18C in Morden as of 1 pm. They could have been much warmer today if the wind was more southwesterly. For Winnipeg, I think it's going to be a close call for a record. If we break it, it probably won't be by much.
Delete22.4C here as of 2PM. I think we have a good shot. Now isn’t the Morden/Melita area the same area that always gets warm in the late fall and early spring? I’m surprised they are cooler than us today.
DeleteJustin Oertel, from Manitoba weather centre on Facebook says that we could be in for a winterlike start to November. Now looking at the long range, it does look like the warm pattern is going to fade by mid week next week and it looks like we’ll be colder by halloween again, but do you see any signs of winter on the horizon yet?
ReplyDeleteThe long range continues to look colder now yes. Good news for you, bad news for me! We'll have to wait and see if it's just something temporary or a more long term cool down.
DeleteEmbrace the coming winter season JJ! We know you love it!
DeleteI’m ready for it! Now is it true we could be seeing highs close to freezing with snow towards the end of next week? I’m wondering if we are transitioning into a colder pattern for November. It would be a big flip from last year.
If we are turning colder why is the CPC outlooks continuing to call for above normal for the first week of November? It doesn’t look above normal in the long range forecast
It's still early to say for sure. Wasn't long ago that the long range looked warm. Have to be careful with long rang forecasts because models can change quite a bit.
DeleteThat’s true. But it does look like we are moving into a period of normal temperatures for sure. I’m ready for winter and I want a cold November.
DeleteWe did it! 24.3C as of 3PM the 1875/1958 record of 23.9C is broken!
ReplyDeleteHigh of 24.3C as of 3 pm does break the record. Warming up nicely now throughout southern Manitoba with widespread 22-25C temperatures. Even some locations reaching close to 26C southeast of the city including in St Pierre, Sprague (25.8C) and Steinbach.
DeleteHotspot using government data (ECCC, Mb Fire and Mb Ag) this hour is Hadashville at 26.5C.
DeleteCrazy warmth! Note Winnipeg has reached 23.9C as late as Nov 5th 1975. So this warmth is not totally unheard of. We’ve reached 25.6C on octiber 27th 1938. Feels like summer out there! Crazy to think we had snow last Saturday!
DeleteAccuweather seems to point to a cold November leading into a very cold December.
ReplyDelete