7 Consecutive Months of Cold

     Well, it looks like history repeated itself with a much colder than normal April following our very cold winter. In fact, of the previous top 20 coldest December to March periods, NONE were followed by a warm April. Looks like that statistics continues to live on...

     At 4.2°C below normal, April was the 5th consecutive month averaging more than 3.5°C colder than normal and the 7th consecutive month averaging below normal.

     With an average mean temperature of -13.1°C so far this year, this has been the 15th coldest first third of the year on record since 1873, tying with 1996. This also ties 4th coldest in the last century. If we include our frigid December into the equation, this December to April period ties with 1935/1936 as 10th coldest since 1872 with an average mean temperature of -14.7°C. In fact, one must go back 121 years to the winter of 1892/1893 to find a colder December to April period. Remarkable!

The melt

     Incredibly, we managed to escape all record lows in April. Really, about the closest we got to breaking a record was on April 14 when we reached a high of -6.4°C. It was the 2nd coldest high on April 14 on record, just shy of the coldest in 1880 when we only reached -7.8°C.

     Snow was another story in April. We started the month with 43 cm of remaining winter snow pack, the 3rd deepest winter snow pack on record coming into April. In fact, the winter snow pack did not disappear until April 21, the 8th latest on record since 1955. Even more impressive, it did not reach a trace cm until April 19, tying 3rd latest. Note that this follows the latest date to do so last year:

Table: Top 10 latest dates for winter snow pack to reach a trace cm

Rank	Date winter snow pack reached trace cm	Year(s)
1	April 27	2013
2	April 26	1997
3	April 19	1979, 1996 & 2014
6	April 18	1962
7	April 16	1956 & 1974
9	April 14	1970
10	April 13	2009

     Finally, for those hoping for more consistent above normal weather soon, again the odds are against us looking at past history. Of the top 15 coldest December to April periods, only 3 (20%) were followed by a summer (June-July-August) that was warmer than the 1872-2013 average summer mean of 18.2°C. Even worse, only 2 (13%) were warmer than today's normal summer mean of 18.4°C. However, big pattern changes have occurred in the past! 1936 was one of them when a 10th coldest December to April period was followed by a 10th warmest summer and hottest July ever in southern Manitoba.

Cool & Unsettled

     Now that yesterday's rain is over with, today we will have plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will also be pleasant, albeit still colder than normal, with highs near 10 to 12°C. Winds will be strong out of the northeast.

     Speaking of yesterday's rain, highest amounts occurred in the southern and southwestern RRV where generally 15-25 mm fell. In Winnipeg, 13.0 mm fell in Charleswood, 8.6 mm at the airport and 11.4 mm here in south St Vital. Here's a map of rainfall totals across southern Manitoba yesterday (not including Sunday, but very little fell that day):

     Cloudy skies return tomorrow with chance of showers and flurries as the Colorado Low to our east wraps around some cloud and precipitation towards the west. It will be chilly and windy from the north; a miserable day.

     Some sun and some cloud on Thursday with warmer temperatures. We should manage to reach about 12 or 13°C assuming we get enough sunshine.

     Beyond that, things look cool and unsettled with multiple chances of showers to begin May. Showers are possible Thursday night, Friday, Saturday and Monday. More specific timing and amounts will be described as these become more certain in the days ahead.

     This sounds like a broken record, but no significant warmup is in the foreseeable future.

Gloomy Times

Snow this morning

     About 12 mm of rain fell over Winnipeg Wednesday evening through yesterday. This was the greatest rainfall since September. Rain changed to snow around 6 pm last night and as of 8 am this morning, I have measured 3.0 cm of accumulation here in south St Vital. Thankfully, no more accumulation is expected  today and the snow will likely melt this afternoon with a high near 7°C.

      We should be thankful for the small amount of snow we did receive however. 15-25 cm of snow is expected to have fallen yesterday and today in the Thunder Bay area of northwestern Ontario. In addition, snow depths in northern Ontario are still high in spots, including in Armstrong north of Lake Superior where snow depths remain at near half a metre.

     As for the forecast, a nice Saturday is expected tomorrow with highs near 11°C. The day will start off fairly sunny but clouds will increase in the afternoon.

     Winds will increase on Sunday sustained at 30-45 km/h from the east/southeast and skies will be fairly cloudy. A Colorado Low to our south could have impacts on southern Manitoba Sunday and Monday... but there remains uncertainty at this time about who will be getting significant rainfall and how much could fall. Stay tuned over the next couple days for updates!

     No significant warmup is expected in the foreseeable future.