Winter Begins Soon

     I'd encourage everyone to enjoy the snow-free ground while it lasts! Winter will begin in just a couple days!

     For today and tomorrow, unfortunately, it will be fairly cloudy and highs will remain in the low single digits. Overnight lows for tonight depend on how much clearing we will see. If we manage to see enough clearing, then lows in the -5 to -8°C range cannot be ruled out. Warmer if we stay cloudy.

     An active and colder pattern begins on Friday. It appears likely we'll see some precipitation in the overnight and morning hours, but precipitation type is in question. At this point, it appears it may begin as a wet snow overnight before switching primarily to rain by morning. As a result, we shouldn't see much snow accumulation, or if we do, it should melt during the day on Friday. After all, we are expected to reach around 6°C or so in the afternoon before colder air moves in late day. Flurries will be possible behind the system late Friday and again on Saturday, but with little accumulation. (To me, this looks like the most likely scenario for Friday, but there could definitely be changes. Will have updates in the comments below as usual).

     A series of systems Saturday night through Monday could bring some accumulative snow to southern Manitoba. However, models have been flip flopping and are not agreeing on how far north the snows will push. For now, just keep in mind snow will be possible, and I'll update in the next few days.

     Very cold conditions are expected to continue throughout the week next week as a huge dip in the jet stream dominates central and eastern North America. Just how cold we will be however, will somewhat depend on if we manage to get a snowcover with these next few systems. Nonetheless, lows well into the minus teens cannot be ruled out on the coldest nights next week.

3rd Driest October Since 1872

     The main story of October 2014 was the very dry conditions with only a measly 4.9 mm of precipitation at Winnipeg airport, 3rd driest October since 1872. Generally, there were no major systems to speak of in the Red River Valley. Much of the precipitation fell as rain, with only a few days receiving trace amounts of snow early and late month.

Table: Top 10 driest Octobers since 1872 in Winnipeg

Rank	Precipitation	Year (s)
1	2.5 mm	1976
2	2.8 mm	1992
3	4.9 mm	2014
4	5.3 mm	1906, 1920, 1974
7	5.8 mm	1964
8	6.9 mm	1874
9	8.1 mm	1939
10	8.4 mm	1895

     Although no thunderstorms were recorded at the airport, two thunderstorm events did occur in Winnipeg. Thunder was reported in southern parts of the city on October 12 and 22.

     Despite unseasonably mild conditions mid month, significant cool downs early and late month ensured that October would only tie as 42nd warmest since 1872. The warmth mid month cannot be ignored though. We exceeded 20°C on Oct 15 and 24. In fact, the 20.6°C high on Oct 24 was the warmest temperature for so late in the year since 1990. The heart of the warm weather during the month was in the western Prairies where October finished top 10 warmest in some areas. Calgary averaged 8.3°C, 9th warmest October since 1884.

     The growing season officially came to an end on October 4, tying 12th latest end to the growing season since 1872. The 1981-2010 normal first frost is September 24 at the airport. Amazingly, downtown did not freeze until October 30!

     The monthly minimum was -11.9°C on Halloween, the coldest low in October since 2002.