Sunday, 15 July 2012

Finally Some Rain

     Winnipeg will finally see some rain this morning with a band of left-over convection from yesterday. General amounts have seemed to be between 5 and 15 mm in southwestern Manitoba overnight with this band, however Winnipeg should see amounts on the lower side, around 5 mm, this morning. This rain is welcomed news to the drought-stricken city, however it may be too little to make much of a difference.
     It doesn't look like we'll clear out much this afternoon behind the rain. There may be a few sunny breaks here and there, but generally it will be a cloudy day. As a result, highs around 23 or 24°C are expected.
     Tonight, things may get interesting. Elevated convection will be possible. With this, a lot of rain, and potentially some lightning, will be possible later this evening and overnight. If we're lucky, we could get 10 to 20 mm of rain, and even higher if we get some thunderstorms going. Stay tuned to the comment section below for updates, as uncertainty lies. As this convection initially forms over southwestern Manitoba and North Dakota, some large hail, damaging winds and excessive rainfall with frequent lightning will be possible for areas south of Brandon, and west of Emerson.

     In the long range, I wanted to give a heads-up on when the heat will start cranking up again.  It looks like things will begin to heat up Thursday, and continue into part of the weekend. Highs in the low to mid thirties and humidex values near 40 will be possible for those few days. It is still far, therefore things could change, however that's how it looks so far.


  1. Tornado watches have been issued for the Melita area, as well as the Carlyle area of Saskatchewan. Be aware of the weather around you, and take cover if thunderstorms hit!

    As for the RRV and southeastern Manitoba, it appears that there is a good chance of seeing some kind of complex move through our area late evening and overnight. Lots of rain, frequent lightning and damaging winds will be possible.

    Will update this evening.

  2. Cell approaching the city as we speak. Some lightning will be possible, and brief heavy downpours. Nothing severe.

  3. Almost all the models show more convection forming overnight, so we could see some heavy rain and lightning in the Winnipeg area overnight. Still a wait and see game at this point as the storms in southwestern Manitoba are not organising very well so far.

  4. Wow, I'm amazed (but not surprised) at how badly the models handled overnight. NAM for instance had well over 20 mm of rainfall for Winnipeg, and other models were similar. In the end, we got nothing overnight in the city, which is unfortunate. However, that rain yesterday was better than nothing.

    A good 7 to 12 mm of rain fell over the city yesterday, not bad considering it's the best rainfall in a month.

    Hot temperatures return by mid week, with what could be another heat wave coming up. Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be the hot days. Friday will be the hottest. So far it looks like Friday could feature highs in the mid thirties (34 to 36°C), so stay tuned for updates. Humidity will likely be an issue as well.

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  6. Thursday is looking very, very hot at this point. A southwesterly flow will usher in 850 mb temperatures of 21 to 24°C into southern Manitoba. In addition, winds will possibly vear to more of a westerly direction in the afternoon, which gives the RRV a downslope warming effect. As a result of these factors, I would not be surprised if we saw temperatures around 35 or 36°C in the RRV. This would be combined with moderate humidity giving humidex values near 40.
    In fact, NAM is actually showing highs near 40 in the southern RRV (Emerson, Morden/Winkler), so I think it's pretty guaranteed that it will be a very hot day!