Saturday, 9 February 2013

Manitoba to Dodge a Bullet Tomorrow; Remaining Relatively Mild For Now

     The worst of the Colorado Low that I have been hinting at for a few days now looks to be mainly a miss to Manitoba tomorrow at this point. Only the extreme southeast tip of the province (Sprague region) is expected to receive a decent amount of snowfall and blowing snow. As much as 5 cm could potentially fall over that area tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds sustained near 40 km/h will create widespread blowing snow as well. Just northwest of Sprague, areas around the Whiteshell, Steinbach and Emerson areas may pick up a few cm. West of this, snowfall is still likely tomorrow and tomorrow night, however it wont come from the Colorado Low necessarily.
     A seperate clipper system from the northwest will provide some light snow to western Manitoba and the Interlake, and possibly as far east as Winnipeg. Overall, not much snowfall is expected in Winnipeg at this point; perhaps a cm or two at most. Breezy north winds will cause drifting snow, especially in open areas, so travel will be treacherous nonetheless. I do recommend you all to check the comment section of this post tomorow morning, as the track of this system is still not 100% certain this evening. I will provide an update there if things change. Meanwhile, here's the snowfall amounts that the GEM Regional model is expecting with this Colorado Low:

     It is looking like a decent storm south of the border. Blizzard warnings have been issued by the NWS for much of South Dakota, northwest Nebraska and southeastern North Dakota while winter storm warnings are in effect in almost all of Minnesota. Heaviest snowfall accumulations are expected in southeastern North Dakota, north central Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, with 15-30 cm expected in that zone. Winds between 50 and 70 km/h will create serious blizzard conditions. If you have travel plans down there, it is recommended that you reconsider them if possible. Even as close as Grand Forks, as much as 10-15 cm is expected with serious blowing snow.

     There will be a brief cool down (relative to today and tomorrow) behind the Colorado Low for Monday with highs likely not reaching -10°C in the afternoon. Brief is the main word here as temperatures will climb again for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs approaching 0°C (similar to today).

     The longer-range is quite uncertain at this point. Right now, the potential is there for more snowfall mid week (Wednesday or Thursday). Behind that system, some models bring us back in the deep freeze, but uncertainty lies in how cold it will get and how long it will last, therefore I will keep it just at that for now.

1 comment:

  1. It is safe to say that this Colorado Low today will be a miss for Winnipeg. We'll only see a few flurries at times, but there is a chance we'll see nothing too. The extreme southeast corner, like what I in this post, will get about 5 cm or so today and tonight, and this snow from the Colorado Low may creep as far north as Steinbach, the Whiteshell and Emerson tonight, but even if it does, only light accumulations would fall. Winds will continue to pick up nonetheless through the day today.