Sunday, 19 May 2013

Hold On to Your Umbrellas!

     Well, it appears we may have finally gotten a better hold on what this system will bring to southern Manitoba over the next few days (fingures crossed there's no more flip flopping!).

     It is looking very wet and fairly windy for the next 3 days. We may not see any major improvement until Wednesday!

     Rain will begin to push in to Winnipeg soon as seen in the radar image directly below. This will be giving way to a rainy afternoon and evening today. The rain could be heavy at times. 5-15 mm is expected in Winnipeg today alone, but locally higher amounts are possible.

You can find this radar on The Weather Network

     Tomorrow will continue the tradition of rainy May long weekends with yet another rainy day. And it will likely be a SOAKER. Drenching rains are expected for much of the day. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in southern Manitoba, but the risk is generally small.

     20-40 mm of rainfall is expected in the Winnipeg area tomorrow (that's for the entire 24-hour day). However, even higher amounts could fall IF we end up under some heavier bands for a prolonged period of time. Localized overland flooding could become a concern in some areas if these higher amounts verify. Amounts will drop steadily as you go northwards.

     Even as we get back to work on Tuesday, rain will still be possible. Although it wont be nearly as bad on Tuesday than on Monday, scattered showers are expected across southern Manitoba. An additional 2-5 mm could fall in some areas.

     Rain wont be the only story however. Strong winds are expected today through to Wednesday. They will be east/northeasterly on each of these days. The windiest day will be Monday when gusts to 60 or 70 km/h are possible. Hold on to your hats and umbrellas tomorrow!

     Conditions will finally improve by Wednesday with sunnier and more seasonal temperatures to finish the week thanks to a building ridge of high pressure over the Prairies. At this time, highly above normal temperatures are not expected.


  1. Rain has begun here in St. Vital.
    By the way, could someone tell me what they see as poll results on my poll please? For some reason, it wont let me see the results. It would be much appreciated :)
    I may not be able to post polls anymore if I'm not the only one experiencing these problems.

  2. jj,
    the same thing is happening on my computer, i can't see what the most popular vote is on the rain poll. On friday it showed up but only one vote did-mine. I voted for 20-40 mm.

  3. Thanks for the feedback Anonymous. I guess in the future I'll have to ask poll questions in the comments here instead. For the record, I had voted for 40-60 mm.

  4. JJ,
    do you think rainfall warnings will be issued for extreme south MB, either at 4:00 or early tomorrow?

  5. At this time of year, a rainfall warning would be issued if at least 50 mm is expected to fall within 24 hours or at least 75 mm within 48 hours.

    Keeping that in mind, it will be a close call for rainfall warnings, but it is entirely possible that some may be issued south of Winnipeg where amounts are expected to be highest. Some of those regions could get 30-50 mm in 24 hours tomorrow. Will have to see what EC does later this afternoon...

  6. Deformation boundary was right through Winnipeg for much of the afternoon so far which has kept heaviest amounts south of the city so far. The boundary is starting to move to our north which is allowing the heavier rains to move in now. 2.2 mm at my place so far as of 4 pm.

    The following image is a visual of this deformation boundary I am talking about, using model data at the 700 mb level. Essentially, it is where the dry air from the north and the moist air from the south collide:

    Now compare this with actual radar imagery:

    If those 2 links do not work, please let me know. I can find another way to show them.

  7. There you have it anon! Rainfall warnings issued south of Winnipeg, including Morden, Winkler, Steinbach, Sprague areas. Totals for this entire system could be between 50 and 80 mm in that area by Tuesday morning.

  8. 7.8 mm at my place in south St Vital so far today.
    7.6 mm in Whyte Ridge and 8.1 mm in Charleswood also recorded.

    Scattered showers to continue through much of the night before a steadier rain moves in tomorrow.

  9. >>JJ C19 May 2013 20:11
    7.8 mm at my place in south St Vital so far today.
    7.6 mm in Whyte Ridge and 8.1 mm in Charleswood also recorded.>> As of 10:47 i have recorded 8.3 MM of Rain in River heights Probibley 10-15 MM by morning.

  10. Thanks for the report :)
    9.2 mm here as of 8 am.

  11. It will be an all day rain today. Looks like heaviest amounts will remain south of the Trans-Canada, therefore I'll reduce today's amounts for Winnipeg to 15-25 mm. Winds will be strong from the northeast at 40 to 50 km/h with gusts to 70 km/h at times. I've eliminated the thunderstorm risk because the risk didn't materialise the last 2 days and I don't see why it would today.

    Rain should end in the city by early Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon... but we don't really improve until Wednesday when there will finally be more sun than cloud. Highs will be near 20°C with remaining breezy conditions from the northeast.

  12. Here's some rainfall totals up to about 7-9 am this morning courtesy of cocorahs. (these are total amounts since THURSDAY)

    Miami (17 km SW) 90.9 mm
    Morden (10 km W) 69.3 mm
    Winkler 55.6 mm
    Emerson (9 km W) 39.9 mm
    Morris (10 km NE) 38.4 mm
    Steinbach 25.9 mm
    Brandon 24.9 mm
    Melita 15.2 mm
    Neepawa 10.7 mm

    Winnipeg (up to 10:15 am):
    Charleswood 20.6 mm
    St Vital (me) 19.3 mm
    Whyte Ridge 18.8 mm

    Charleswood from robsobs and Whyte Ridge from Gorilla weather.
    Haven't been able to see if that amount near Miami is too high yet.. The EC station has missing data yesterday, hopefully it will have it tomorrow. But it's possible they did get that much.

  13. Deformation boundary right across the city again this afternoon dividing it in half. It's raining steadily here in south St Vital right now but not a drop is falling near the airport.

  14. >>JJ C20 May 2013 12:42
    Deformation boundary right across the city again this afternoon dividing it in half. It's raining steadily here in south St Vital right now but not a drop is falling near the airport.>> I am right on the line here in river heights JJ. I'm getting 5 minute mod-heavy periods of rain. if this keeps up for the rest of day it will be very interesting to see the rainfall totals.

  15. this is extremely interesting with the deformation line right at my house.:) the small periods of rain are getting steadier.

  16. Yeah if it keeps up there will be a clear difference in rain amounts comparing between northwest and southeast ends.
    Did you get a rainfall amount at your place so far today Anon?
    7.5 mm at my place since Midnight, only 4.1 mm in Charleswood so the difference is getting more noticeable.

  17. The rain is no longer in 5 minute periods any more: its very steady but still not coming down very hard. Also around 12:00 i herd some thunder????? it might have been the garbage truck but i dought it.

  18. I have had 6.9 MM since 1:00 AM.

  19. at 1:20 its looking like the whole city is getting rained on except extreme north-west.

  20. jj just curios whats your real name.

  21. heavier rain moving to the city from the south west, looks like it'll be raining for the next few hours.

  22. thats my nephews name! I like it.

  23. My name is willy

    1. Ah I think I've seen you comment on Rob's blog before?

    2. yeah thats right I used to post comments on his blog in till i found your blog. I think i prefer yours toward Robs. the problem with robs blog is that there is comment moderation. i also like your blog because it is a lot more than just a blog.

  24. I would say that this blog is definitely the best weather blog for southern MB, for. Some things that make it a good blog compared to Robs blog are: it has winnipeg forecast, climate books, top ten, thunderstorm risk info, WX photos, summaries, weather data, no comment moderation and replys. the only reason robs blog is more popular is its been around since 2006, yours has only been around since 2012.

  25. Sorry about putting for after my first sentence in my last comment. I was in a rush.

  26. Thanks for the compliment Willy! =)

  27. your welcome! :)

  28. Back to the weather! At 3:00 PM at YWG they recored a wind gust of 72 KPH! Its definitely windier then i thought it would be today.

  29. Deadly situation in the southern suburbs of Oklahoma City this afternoon. A large and very strong tornado hit the Moore area there.. Intense destruction and several deaths reported already. Always very sad when these types of tornadoes hit heavily populated areas...
    Check out this photo of the tornado when it hit... MASSIVE

    For anyone interested, there's a live stream here of the situation down there:

  30. Cool video Julien! Its one of those things that is sad and interesting at the same time:):(

  31. rain moving into the city from the south east

  32. Here are some rainfall amounts as of 8:00 AM this morning.
    Site ................ Rain today ..... Total rain since Saturday

    Morden (1)............. 32 mm ............ 75 mm
    Deerwood (1) .......... 28 mm ............ 65 mm
    Sprague (1) ........... 21 mm ............ 58 mm
    Emerson (1) ........... 10 mm ............ 41 mm
    Gretna (1) ............ 16 mm ............ 42 mm
    Carman (1) ............ 6 mm ............ 43 mm
    Pilot Mound (1) ....... 5 mm ............ 35 mm
    Kleefeld (1) .......... 14 mm ............ 31 mm
    Winnipeg arpt (1) ..... 2 mm ............ 15 mm

    Altona (2) ............ 23 mm ............. 49 mm
    Carman (2) ........... 15 mm ............. 50 mm
    Letellier (2) ........ 19 mm ............. 53 mm
    Morris (2) ........... 16 mm ............. 41 mm
    Somerset (2) ......... 29 mm ............. 56 mm
    Winkler (2) .......... 24 mm ............. 61 mm
    St Pierre (2) ........ 16 mm ............. 39 mm
    Steinbach (2) ........ 8 mm ............. 24 mm
    Manitou (2) .......... 24 mm ............. 54 mm
    Killarney (2) ........ 33 mm ............. 65 mm
    Boissevain (2) ....... 19 mm ............. 61 mm
    Deloraine (2) ........ 14 mm ............. 54 mm

    Carman (3) ........... 26 mm ............ 59 mm *
    Winkler (3) .......... 18 mm ............ 45 mm

  33. We'll add another 5-10 mm to the totals here in Winnipeg this evening. Up to 10.5 mm since midnight at my place.

  34. I've had about 17 mm now here in south St Vital since midnight. South half of the city really got heaviest amounts today with just 12 mm in Charleswood and 14 mm in Whyte Ridge.

    That brings my total to 32 mm since Friday... will have official amounts when this system is finally over.

  35. Wow nice to see that glowing orb back in the sky! Haven't seen it since Thursday

  36. Willy... you can also check out my blog at It's similar to JJ's but has a little more in terms of features. I'm only in my second year & still have a lot to do in terms of expanding & adding more data. Be sure to check it out.....