We return into a southerly flow tomorrow, bringing back summer. It looks like another 30°C day in southern Manitoba. Highs of about 30 to 31°C are expected around Winnipeg with the warmest temperatures in southwestern Manitoba. There will be a breezy south wind. Humidity will increase throughout the day ahead of a weak cold front tomorrow night. A thunderstorm will be possible with this front overnight into early morning Friday.
One more 30°C day is expected on Friday with a high of 30°C expected.
A slightly cooler day is expected Saturday, but still well above normal with highs in the mid to high 20's expected. At this point, the next better chance for showers and storms looks like in the Sunday-Monday timeframe.
Thankfully, no prolonged cool down is in sight in the near future. Long range models continue a generally above normal temperature trend well into September.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Just an official note that the thunderstorm records are now on the record books page which you can access whenever you need. Note that whenever I could, I used metar data which allows you to see observations in between hourly observations... ensuring that no thunderstorm was missed. However, this was only possible for part of the 70's, and for the 80's and beyond.
I just wanted to share the following graph. This graph shows how many years since 1953 have had a thunderstorm on any given day of the year.
July 18 = Day with the highest frequency of thunderstorms (20 years, or 33% of the record period, had a thunderstorm on this day)
July 14 = Median day (meaning approximately 50% of thunderstorm days occured before this date and the other 50% occured on and after this date)
June 18 to July 18 = 30-day period with the highest frequency of thunderstorm activity; or in other words, the peak of the thunderstorm season
Top 5 earliest thunderstorms:
1. March 19 .... 2012
2. March 27 .... 2004 and 2012
4. March 28 .... 1960
5. March 29 .... 1999
Top 5 latest thunderstorms
1. December 5 .... 1966
2. December 2 .... 1982
3. November 8 .... 2007
4. November 7 .... 1975
5. November 1 .... 2000