Thursday, 12 September 2013

Warm Tomorrow; Cold Front Passes Saturday

     After a rather coolish day today, a warmer day is in store for Friday as a strong southwesterly flow re-establishes itself over southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be warmest in western Manitoba with highs in the high 20's expected. Here in the Winnipeg area, highs in the mid 20's are expected.

     A rather potent cold front will slice through southern Manitoba Saturday morning. Strong northerly winds will occur behind this front in the afternoon with sustained winds of 30 to 40 km/h and gusts as high as 50 km/h are expected. Unfortunately, little to no precipitation is expected with this front. Daytime highs in the low 20's will likely be reached in the early afternoon before dropping or steadying for the remainder of the afternoon.

     High pressure moves in Sunday morning. As a result, with clear skies and light winds, very chilly morning temperatures are expected. In general, lows between 2 and 5°C are expected across southern Manitoba. Some traditionally cooler areas in western Manitoba may dip as low as 0 to 1°C. Temperatures will be below seasonal in the afternoon with highs in the mid to high teens expected.

     Luckily that wont last long as warmer and more humid conditions are expected to return next week.


  1. Luckily, no real signs of a prolonged cool down in the next couple weeks still.. Instead just frequent ups and downs... ups being more frequent and long-lived than downs.

    1. Any risk of frost with these cold fronts moving in so often.

    2. Don't think we'll see frost in the Winnipeg area this weekend but it will be a close call as temperatures drop to between 2 and 5°C Sunday and Monday morning. Will keep an eye on that. Beyond that I don't see that type of cool down for a while yet.

  2. Will keep watching Monday morning's forecast. Looking like a very close call for southern Manitoba for frost. Dewpoints are expected to drop to just below zero. I'd expect some patchy frost in a few localities with lows between 0 and 2°C. We should be okay inside Winnipeg due to the urban heat island effect.

  3. There will be a chance for showers and storms tomorrow morning with the front after all.. but nothing overly significant is anticipated.

  4. There is already good agreement on a potent low pressure system for southern Manitoba in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe next week. Will have to watched.. Could bring a good rainfall along with thunderstorms.

  5. Cold front will be passing through later this morning. Showers are very likely with this and there may even be a thunderstorm. Significant rainfall is not expected due to the generally brief nature of the storms.

  6. Wow thunder.. in Winnipeg! Someone forgot to activate the Perimeter Shields this morning.

    Today's storm puts us at 15 thunderstorm days so far this year, knocking us down to 4th least for a year so far.

  7. Models are indicating a lot of rain late next week. What's happening?

    1. At this point it looks like a fairly vigorous Montana Low may impact southern Manitoba in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. This system will have a lot of moisture to work with so someone is bound to get high rainfall amounts with it if it does materialise. It is too early to say who will be getting the heaviest rains so those 50 + mm rainfall amounts you see should be taken with a grain of salt right now. Part of the reason that the models have such high amounts right now could possibly be due to thunderstorm activity.

      Will be something to watch...

  8. The airport got down to 0°C this morning... which is really the most extreme low in the Winnipeg area unfortunately.
    Lows in Winnipeg:
    South St Vital (me) 3.2°C
    Charleswood 4.0°C
    Richmond West 5.6°C
    uofw (downtown) 6.3°C

    Some of the coldest lows in southern Manitoba this morning:

    Fisher Branch -2°C
    Wasagaming -1°C
    Roblin -1°C
    Berens River -1°C
    Brandon 0°C
    Swan River 0°C

    There were noticeably warmer lows closer to the lake since the lake is still quite warm. Gimli got down to just 8°C and Victoria Beach 9°C.

  9. Wednesday looks interesting right now. Severe thunderstorms definitely look possible, especially along the US border. Will keep an eye on the potential. Capping may be in place as well, so that will be a factor to take into account.

  10. Frost chance is looking higher tonight. Lows between -1°C and 1°C are possible in rural areas of the RRV. Inside Winnipeg it -should- stay above zero, in exception for the outer suburbs. I'd cover your plants just in case.