Saturday, 19 July 2014

Storm Risk Tonight; Hot Sunday

     Cooler day today behind yesterday's cold front. We'll likely only reach about 25-26°C under a mix of sun and cloud and a light westerly breeze.

     A trough of low pressure moves in tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms throughout southern Manitoba. Best risk appears to be in the Parklands, Interlake and east of Lake Winnipeg. However, a few storms are still possible further south, including in Winnipeg. Severe potential looks small. Will provide some updates in the comments below later today if needed.

      Skies clear tomorrow morning, giving way to a hot and sunny day. Assuming there isn't any unexpected haze, we should manage to reach 31-33°C. Humidex values will likely push the mid to high 30's, particularly in southeastern Manitoba.

     Next chance for rain will be Monday night. However, models are not agreeing on how far north the risk will reach. Thunderstorm risk for the event looks to remain mainly to our south in the US.

55 comments:

  1. JJ click my name for a link on tomorrow's possible storm activity, you agree with the NAM?

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    1. High instability, but lack of a trigger. Trough is expected to be to our east already by morning or midday and so the best risk for anything organised will be that way.

      We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if the trough moves slower than expected, but it would REALLY have to slow down a lot.

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  2. How about this though I follow the NOAA website, low right over MB tomorrow...

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    1. Maybe a few isolated storms with that cold front tomorrow to our northwest, then maybe something here late in the day as the front slides southeast, but I don't see anything widespread at this time. Best risk will really be with the trough to our east.

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  3. we'll see, if we get something here they could be severe. latest NAM shows lifted incidies of -6 and less.

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  4. A reminder that some shower or elevated thunderstorm activity remains possible overnight tonight in the RRV. However, given our luck with nocturnal activity this year, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get much. Severe activity not expected nonetheless.

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  5. JJ, how likely is it we'll see pulse severe storms tomorrow with the cold front leaving the area around evening hours? I'm thinking that coud be a possibility as we see heat and humidity build in.

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    1. I know you said the best risk is to our east, but you cant discount something popping up along that cold front with lifted indices near -7C.

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  6. Note that Environment Canada has issued severe thunderstorm watches for the thunderstorm potential in southeastern Saskatchewan later this evening. Can't rule out an isolated severe cell close to the SK border tonight. I am doubtful we'll see severe activity in the RRV tonight however.

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  7. jj, around what time are you expecting Winnipeg to get something i'd like to be able to stay up for it, will it be here around midnight?

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    1. I hope you didn't stay up all night Mike. The chance was not very high. Sorry I didn't get to answer you earlier.

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  8. Absolutely nothing through the RRV overnight. Thunderstorm activity remained in the Interlake and east of Lake Winnipeg.

    I am somewhat hoping we get a good rain soon in Winnipeg. With only 15.7 mm of rain so far this month at the airport, this July stands at 5th driest on record right now. Still 11 days to go, so a lot can still happen.

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  9. I really don't think the risk for thunderstorms in Winnipeg today is good at all. Trough of low pressure is expected to be to our east already this afternoon and so the best risk for anything will be that way. Of course, will have to keep an eye on the trough today and see if it is slower than anticipated. If winds remained southerly through the afternoon here, the chance of something may be higher, but I am doubtful this would occur given the high consensus that it wont.

    There is a risk for a few isolated thunderstorms along a cold front in the Parklands and Interlake today, but I still don't see anything widespread. Isolated severe possible, but again not expecting a widespread risk. Slight chance of a storm moving into RRV and extreme southwestern Manitoba tonight, but I am not optimistic we will get much.

    Nonetheless, should manage to reach around 31-32°C in Winnipeg today assuming the haze doesn't get too thick.

    Day will start off quite sunny tomorrow, but we should see some more cloud by midday and afternoon as a system passes to our south. An isolated shower is possible, but best risk to our south. Should reach 25-27°C depending on how much cloud there is.

    Sunny on Tuesday as high pressure moves in. Should reach around 25-26°C.

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  10. Latest GFS model run for this coming Friday is rather unusual for the Southern prairies at this time of year.

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  11. No chance for thunderstorms today whatsoever at this point. Cap way too strong and trough has moved thru already.

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  12. Jj when's our next chance for storms? Hoping we get a nice evening lightning show soon..

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    1. This certainly has not been the year for nocturnal activity in Winnipeg.

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  13. Looks like our next chance for storms may not come until the near the end of the week as in Thursday-Friday timeframe.

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  14. Yes, next chance for some storms would be end of the work week.

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  15. I'm not an expert at this but based on the latest it doesn't look like our below normal run will end for this month and neither in August. There are no hints whatsoever of any prolonged heat over the next few weeks. In fact there are hints that August could be cooler than normal perhaps more so than July.

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    1. I don't see any prolonged above normal conditions neither. Even the last few days haven't been that spectacularly as warm as what it had looked last week. July will very likely finish below normal.

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  16. Just one of those years where you hope September and October are warmer which is a possibility with the upcoming El Nino plus past history does show that generally cooler summers are followed by warmer than average Fall so we'll see.

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  17. Some thunderstorm activity did skirt the US border overnight. Looks like south end got bulk of the rain that went through Winnipeg early this morning. 1.5 mm here in south St Vital but no accumulation at the airport.

    Might get interesting for parts of southern Manitoba later today. Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening, especially south of the Trans Canada. I wont rule out a severe storm or two sneaking onto our side of the border as well from North Dakota. Winnipeg will likely get some rain later in the day as well. Risk of thunder here is lower, but non-zero.

    Clearing out for tomorrow, and we should reach 24-25°C. Similar on Wednesday.

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  18. Anybody along the US border will have to keep in a close eye on tonight. Some models do hint at the possibility that the north end of a potent bow echo or even derecho could clip the southeastern corner of Manitoba around Sprague overnight tonight. Damaging straight-line winds would be the main concern. Should be clearer how far north things push later today. I do think Winnipeg will be getting some rain tonight, but amounts are questionable. Worst may potentially skirt us to the south east.

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  19. I hate events like this. So painful to watch a ton of action not too far away, knowing none of it will hit you

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    1. I know right... Textbook MCS system to our south today with stratiform rains here in Winnipeg this evening associated with it. 110 km/h wind gusts in Grand Forks with that line. Flooding and constant lightning flashes also occurring down there, not too far away from here.

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    2. NNWS Grandforks reports preliminary ef2 tornado on ground last night from 925 to 950 from Crooksto to near red lake falls buried inside the thunderstorm.-

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  20. Looks like there might be a severe weather threat later this week. But will wait for more consensus within models before getting into details.

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  21. Appears more than 9.4mm of rain at Whyte Ridge and 5.3 mm at Robs here in St Vital. what are you seeing J?

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  22. I received 7.6 mm here in south St Vital last night. South end had the most with generally 5-10 mm. Only about 2-3 mm at the airport. Incredible rainfall totals coming out of the Grand Forks area. 70-90 mm in some locations according to Cocorahs. Generally 20-40 mm in extreme southeastern Manitoba and along the US border to the west including 29.5 mm in Morden, 33 mm in Morris and about 37 mm in Sprague.

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    1. Just as those tribs and the red are almost back inside the river bank. Wont need the floodwY again I hope.

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  23. Nothing but sun today. I'm only anticipating a high around 24°C, maybe 25°C. Tomorrow will be almost identical, except winds will be a tad lighter.

    Bit more cloud on Thursday with a stronger southerly breeze. A bit warmer, reaching around 27°C or so. Maybe a shower late day, but the main risk for us for some thunderstorm and shower activity will be on Friday. Maybe some severe activity on Friday if we can get enough sun, but so far, it doesn't look like one of the biggest severe threats this year.

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  24. That storm produced an estimated 35 minute ef2 tornado from Crookston to Red lake Falls last night about an hour east of Grand forks See
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=103484&source=0-

    OR.my name

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  25. JJ,

    Just curious, have you finished the calculating your Winnipeg forecast accuracy results for the past [few?] months? If so, what were the results?

    Thanks,
    Jeff

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    1. Was planning to post the next one in August.

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    2. Ok thats great to know!!

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  26. Click on my name or follow the link below my comment for a cool story from TWN of a soldier who died in the Elie tornado!
    http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/tornado-footage-from-a-fallen-soldier/32126/

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  27. Beautiful day today with lots of sun and light wind. I'm only expecting a high of about 24°C. Another chilly night tonight, dropping around 10-12°C or so.

    Things get a little more turbulent starting tomorrow. Clouds will be on the increase. Daytime highs are difficult to predict due to the increased cloud cover. Assuming sufficient sunshine, we should manage to reach around 25-26°C or so. A bit cooler if cloud is thicker and more extensive. There is a slight chance of a shower late day. Thunderstorm activity will likely be confined to southwestern Manitoba where severe activity looks possible closer to the Saskatchewan border.

    After a chance of showers and some thunder here in the RRV overnight an early Friday, we should see some sun in the morning and afternoon. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is likely in southeastern Manitoba in the afternoon. Severe activity is possible. However, it is tough to say if Winnipeg will be getting into this chance. Unfortunately, it appears that the trough will already be east of the city by morning. This would mean the best chance will stay east of the city, which is my main concern.

    Low pressure system swings through southern Manitoba on Saturday, resulting in scattered showers and lots of cloud, especially in southwestern Manitoba. Better chance for rain in Winnipeg will be later in the afternoon and evening after some sunshine earlier in the day. If cloud cover doesn't move in until afternoon, we may see another day in the mid 20's before the rain and cloud move in.

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  28. Note that I'll also be adding dewpoint records to the record books in August as well. So far, I'm planning to add daily and monthly dewpoint records. So far, it is clear that moisture here in the summer has been on a rising trend in the last decade or two. September is quite notable; 60% of the daily high minimum dewpoint records are held by years after 2000 while not one single daily low maximum dewpoint has been broken since 1995. 43% of the daily maximums are since 2000 while only 3% (just 1 record) of the daily minimums are since 2000.

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  29. Interesting.. an MCS has formed in northern ND, south eastern saskatchewan and south western manitoba. JJ, do you think that it might be able to march over to the RRV later today before it dissipated?

    THanks

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    1. I expect it to dissipate this morning. We may get some showers later associated with it, but I am doubtful we'll see much in the way of storm activity in Winnipeg.

      Main chance for us will be overnight and early morning tomorrow as a troughline continues its trek eastward and storms from Saskatchewan move into Manitoba.

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  30. Lots of debris cloud moving in from the MCS in southwestern Manitoba this morning. Hard to say how much it will dissipate before afternoon, so daytime high forecasts are a bit of a struggle this morning. Assuming sufficient sunshine, highs around 26°C would be possible.

    After tonight's storm threat, things look to clear up for tomorrow afternoon. Still warm in the mid 20's for highs.

    Beautiful day to start on Saturday with lots of sun. However, clouds thicken in the afternoon with showers likely late afternoon and evening. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Should manage to reach 25-27°C before the clouds and showers move in.

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  31. Hopefully we can get a good rain in Winnipeg tonight and Saturday. Only 18.4 mm of rain at the airport so far this July, so far 8th driest July on record. Hard to believe it's actually been so dry this month in Winnipeg given all the flood talk of late to our west.

    There's certainly been many dry Julys in recent years. 2006 was the driest July on record until 2011 came along and broke the record again. 2012 was also dry at 12th driest. This may be partly due to the lack of thunderstorm activity hitting Winnipeg in recent years given the fact that much of our precip in July comes from t-storms.

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  32. Twice this month Gimli and Victoria Beach lake levels have reached July records . Despite this, the waters from the tri annual or semi monthly 300 yr record Flood flows on the Assinniboine river have not "yet"reached the lake. Water is still flowing IN at least twice the volume it is flowing out. July Record flows on the Saskatchewan Winnipeg and Red Rivers won't change anytime soon. Higher dewpoints and lower temperatures not only mean less evaporation but also more rain to maintain that flow. All this and we have just reached the point where temperatures on average will drop, North Winds increase in frequency speed and duration. Our new higher wind speeds will enhance the wave crest effect on the lake and shoreline Property Damage. Fortunately that Lake St Martin and Lake Manitoba expanded relief wasn't completed yet.
    Do you think that this is a symptom of the rapid speed at which climate change can occur?

    Charts of the recent record water levels.

    Victoria Beach

    http://www.wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/graph/graph_e.html?stn=05SA003&prm1=3&prm2=-1&mode=graph&smo=6&sday=17&syr=2014&emo=7&eday=25&eyr=2014&y1min=&y1max=&max=1&y2min=&y2max=



    Gimli

    http://www.wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/graph/graph_e.html?stn=05SB006&prm1=3&prm2=-1&mode=graph&smo=6&sday=17&syr=2014&emo=7&eday=25&eyr=2014&y1min=&y1max=&max=1&y2min=&y2max=

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    1. The way we use the land on the Prairies certainly does not help matters. Land is designed so that much of the water flows rapidly away from our fields and communities. However, as we have seen, our rivers cannot handle such large influxes of water in such a short period of time. As much as we want to get rid of the unwanted water, we are going to have to get better at retaining water and slowing the flow or else the people downstream are really going to suffer.

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    2. It would definitely help. Until then I will continue my practise of sun worship dances ( but a cool summer sun) I believe tbey call it the Mexican Hat Dance.lol

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  33. Do you think we shoud tone down the rain dance?

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    1. It's unfortunate that the ones who need to dry out the most are the ones who continually get hit with storm after storm. Although the chance for storms is there for Winnipeg tonight, it looks like a split in systems scenario cannot be ruled out once again.

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  34. New model runs this afternoon are certainly not encouraging for storm potential tonight. Many of them now hint that storms will collapse overnight in southwestern Manitoba before reaching the RRV. Chance is still there here for something overnight and early morning, but the chance looks a little lower than it did in previous runs.

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  35. Just when you think and hope that things couldn't get any worse he we go again with the same old broken record report we've been suffering here in Winnipeg since 2011. I'd give anyone a million bucks that can explain clearly and confidently why every single flippin July here since 2011 has lacked storms. Some understanding might relieve my frustration towards the whole why do we always get missed scenario. Is it the same meteorological scenario over the last 4 July's thats responsible? Why would an area as small as Wpg always be the one to miss out the most? What should be our most active month has been such a let down thats created my bitterness at least anyways. The only hope of a storm lovers passion seems to be getting out of here and going somewhere where this just doesn't happen as often. You folks in westman and north dakota can send your storms our way. Can't even really say that theres hope for any change since thats been said over and over since 2011 practically. When will this madness end?! Seriously I can't take it anymore! I'm not asking/hoping for flooding rains and devastation but come on this is ridiculous! Ranting about the weather, something we have the least control over is certainly as frustrating as the lack of storms themselves.

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  36. I totally agree with you anon , but i think that when it comes down to it's just plain luck believe it or not! And, mathematically, the more something happens over and again, the more it's bound to change.

    However, if this storm drought continued for the the next decade or more, you'd have to wonder if it WAS something to dfo with or climate changing. Although, as you mentioned, areas around us are getting more storms then us..

    As far as your frustration for nobody explaining scientifically– like I said it's pure luck.

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  37. Yeah thanks annon. Sure has been a consistent long run of bad luck

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  38. As expected, the squall line has collapsed in SW MB. Don't expect anything here in Winnipeg/RRV as per usual.

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  39. My goodness, not a drop of rain in Winnipeg through the night. Not that that should surprise anyone.

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  40. That squall line pretty much fizzled out as soon as it entered the province from Saskatchewan.

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