Monday, 28 July 2014

Warm & Sunny For the Next Several Days

1st Street in Brandon this morning; fields still flooded
     I just got back from a few days out in Brandon. This would explain the lack of updates since Saturday morning. Looks like water levels on the Assiniboine River in Brandon have finally been dropping steadily in the last week. 1st Street, a major north-south artery in the city finally reopened just last week after being closed due to water flowing over the highway for several days. The highway looks to have been slightly eroded and damaged on the shoulders with only one lane of traffic allowed at this time. With only one road linking areas north of the river with areas south of the river (18th Street) for several days, there certainly was some traffic chaos in the city. This was exacerbated by the closure of a vast section of Victoria Avenue, a major west-east artery, due to major construction. Brandon's population is close to 50,000.


     Saturday also turned out to be a pretty active day across southern Manitoba. 3 tornadoes have been confirmed; 1 near La Salle just south of Winnipeg, and 2 others near Waterhen in the northern Interlake. On our way to Brandon, we did see a funnel cloud near Macgregor mid afternoon, west of Portage. It appeared to be at least half way to the ground, but it was hard to say because we were a fair distance away. Unfortunately, I didn't get any pictures.

Storm east of Brandon Saturday afternoon

     As for the forecast, there really isn't much to say! High pressure looks to settle in for the remainder of the week with nothing but sun and seasonal to above seasonal temperatures. Can't rule out a few popup showers or storms late week, but the risk is quite low for any given location. We should reach about 25-26°C tomorrow, around 27-28°C Wednesday and around 28-29°C or so on Thursday. A 30°C day might be possible on Friday.

     Lastly, I thought I'd add a couple pictures of beautiful downtown Brandon I took this morning. A lovely city!




15 comments:

  1. Hello, Great pictures of Brandon! Thanks!

    Did anyone happen to see the announcement yesterday about purchasing 60 new weather stations in Manitoba?

    http://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?archive=&item=31985

    I wonder where the data will reside, will it be available to public through Environment Canada's website? I'm not really sure how that all works, pretty interesting though!

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    1. The 40 that are planned for agricultural areas may be added to Manitoba Agriculture I imagine, but I can't guarantee that. The 20 added to fire risk areas may be added to the Manitoba Conservation site, but again I can't guarantee that.

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  2. Both daily and monthly dewpoint records for Winnipeg have been added to the record books. Turns out moisture really is on a rising trend right now (dewpoints overall are increasing). In fact, dewpoints on average have risen almost a full degree just in the past 25 years. Graph can be seen here: http://wxrecordbooks.weebly.com/wpgdpyear.html

    Summers and winters have seen the largest increase in moisture in the last 25 years with dewpoints rising over a full degree on average. 7 of the top 10 moistest summers were in the past 20 years. Dewpoint records go back to 1953. 2010 was the moistest summer on record, followed by 2012 and 2005.

    Falls have remained almost unchanged in the last 30 years in terms of moisture, while springs have become slightly moister.

    I was surprised by how quickly Junes have been moistening. Dewpoints in June have risen almost a full 2°C since the 1980's. Same story with Januarys where dewpoints have risen almost 3°C in the same timeframe. Interestingly, although Mays have been cooling down in the last 15 years, dewpoints have been rising slightly.

    Note that although moisture in the air has been increasing, this hasn't always meant more precipitation. For instance, although 2012 was the 4th moistest year on record, precipitation was actually below normal. In terms of precipitation, 2012 was 38th driest since 1873. However, it does mean there is more moisture available and so, when it does rain, there certainly is the potential for more. 2010 was the 3rd moistest year on record and the rainiest year on record.

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    1. Is that why we are seeing leaves still on trees well past Sept and in many cases past thanksgiving.Something we didnt see often in the 70 s 80s and eary nineties. ?

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    2. I can't really compare with other years when it comes to leaves. I've only been here about 15 years and it seems the leaves usually last well into September and into part of October sometimes. Not sure if this is later or not than usual. I suppose it is possible that the trend towards warmer and moister Septembers in the last couple decades may have pushed the loss of leaves a bit later, but I can't confirm.

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  3. Are those elevated rivers of heat and moisture heading north on both coasts the reason why we are seeing a slow down in the rate of ice melt in the artic this year.Or is this the kickstart to the next ice age they suspect was started by the CO2 the last Ice age.

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  4. Great Pics. Is that Princess street Downtown?
    Ice Melt Chart on my name or
    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

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    1. It's between Rosser and Princess.

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  5. ''Boring'' weather for us forecasters this week. Nothing but sun today through to Friday with highs in the high 20's and light winds. A few isolated pop-up non-severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Manitoba each day as a bit of instability builds up in the afternoons. 99.9% of the population likely wont see anything with these!! Better chance for the Parklands region late in the day on Friday as a cold front approaches in from Saskatchewan. A severe outbreak is not anticipated with this given the extremely low wind shear.

    This cold front may bring some showers and thunderstorms to the RRV and Winnipeg on Saturday, so a bit more unsettled for that day. Temperatures will be a tad cooler on Sunday behind the front.

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  6. Hate to say this, but the prospect for storms isn't very good over the next 10 days or so. Other than a chance for scattered likely non-severe thunderstorms Saturday the pattern currently does not support active weather for us. With August upon us, severe weather season is slowly going quietly into the sunset. This once again will go down as a disappointing year for storms here. The fourth summer in a row like this.

    On another note, enjoy this beautiful stretch of summer weather while it lasts because there are hints that the cooler weather will be returning by August 9th or so.

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  7. Unfortunately, you're right Anon, the storm season has really started to slow down. Another dissapointment for sure and our rain total for July sure shows that with only 32% of normal July rainfall this year. Another dry and boring mid-summer for the RRV. Lawns are really starting to dry out right now, some rain would be nice. Thankfully, storm season lasts until September so there's still time for things to get active again later in August.

    Scattered non-severe storms expected again today and tomorrow through southwestern Manitoba and the Interlake. Looks like the RRV will miss out. Our chance will come on Saturday, but generally weak and non-severe.

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  8. is that smoke or very thin cloud?

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    1. I'm pretty sure it was smoke we were seeing today.

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  9. Good news....it seems like this long and awaited long stretch of warm summerlike weather will continue perhaps at least for another 10 to 14 days. Although we are not seeing any precip of late, this sunny and very warm weather is a welcome change in a year that warm weather has virtually been non-existant.

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  10. Too bad there can't ever be a balance. We really need rain too

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