Wednesday 27 August 2014

Warmer; Some Storm Chances

     Nothing but sun in the RRV today. I'm expecting a high around 23-24°C in Winnipeg. Warmer night tonight with lows in the low teens. Much better than the 7.9°C low this morning at the airport.

     The sun continues tomorrow as temperatures reach high 20's. Highs around 27-28°C look likely for Winnipeg. There will be a risk for thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba in the evening as a cold front approaches. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out there.

     A cloudy start to Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front. Skies should clear for the afternoon, but it will be cooler behind the front with highs only in the low 20's.

     Looks like we will warmup already for Saturday with highs in the mid 20's. Another cold front moves into southwestern Manitoba late in the day which could bring some more thunderstorm activity to the area. Again, isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out closer to the Saskatchewan border. That front will pass through the RRV on Sunday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms again.

20 comments:

  1. Forecasts will be updated tomorrow morning...

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  2. Showers to begin very soon in Winnipeg. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but it looks like the bulk of the activity is staying just south of the city. 5-10 mm possible by this afternoon. Should see some clearing later in the afternoon. We wont warm much at all today, especially given the colder air moving in behind the cold front this morning.

    Lots of sun tomorrow, but we will likely stay on the cooler side of things with a high around 22°C or so. Conditions look good right now for a decent rain event early on Sunday (overnight or morning). Thunderstorms will be possible, but I am worried that instability may be too marginal. We should clear out for the afternoon on Sunday, so we should manage to reach mid 20's. Cooler on Monday with highs in the low 20's.

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    1. High on Sunday will be highly dependent on when clear out, if we do. New NAM run this morning has really slowed things down which may only allow for highs in the low 20's.

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  3. Getting some thunder, some big boomers at times, here in south St Vital at this time. Better than nothing I suppose...

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    1. I'm a little surprised there are warnings for the storms to our south... But I guess we'll wait and see if any reports come out of it.

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    2. Starting to see some training storm activity north of Morris. Definitely could see some high rainfall totals coming out of that area.

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    3. According to the warning statement, quarter-sized hail and damaging wind gusts have been reported... Not a bad morning event!

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    4. With August closing out likely on a wet note, is September going to be nicer, drier, stormy or soggy?

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  4. JJ, with August drawing to a close, dominated with mixed of sun and rain this long weekend, is the word "thunderstorm" still sticking around entering the month of September and likely into early October?

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    1. It's honestly almost impossible to say when will be the end of the season exactly this far out. We can still get thunderstorm activity as late as October... In fact, just last year the airport reported a thunderstorm on October 11. The SPC even had a slight severe risk into southern Manitoba for that day. However, clearly the peak of the season is coming to a close. Thunderstorm events will be few and far between from now on.

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  5. JJ, i've heard rumblings that September will be cooler than normal and perhaps even October. What arr your thoughts on this?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. So far, it has looked that way - trending near to a bit below normal. I suspect there will some warmer periods though.

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  6. According to Weatherbug on twitter there where gusts as high as 129km/h in miami earlyer today!

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    1. I that might be an exageration, Anon.

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  7. Turned into quite the storm south and southeast of Winnipeg earlier today. Some impressive rainfall totals recorded with 50+ mm in less than an hour in some locations. Severe flash flooding in the Steinbach area and points west of there, such as near Niverville. 67 mm at the Steinbach MAFRI station today! Here's some rain totals so far today via Manitoba Agriculture and Weather Farm:

    Steinbach 66.8 mm
    La Broquerie 55.6 mm
    Niverville 37.6 mm
    Kleefeld 34.9 mm
    St Pierre Jolys 31.0 mm
    Carman 31.1 mm
    Glenlea 28.4 mm

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    1. That 37.6 mm in Niverville was a Weather Farm station. However, apparently there have been reported of 100 mm locally in that area.

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  8. Yikes, all the way down to 4.0°C at the airport this morning. 6.3°C was the low at my place and 6.2°C in Charleswood. Only down to 9°C at The Forks.

    Looking like another major rain event possible for the RRV and southeastern Manitoba tomorrow as a slow moving trough of low pressure moves through. Rain in Winnipeg should fall in the morning and part of the afternoon before tapering off in the afternoon. There is the risk for a thunderstorm, however, I don't think the risk is extremely high for Winnipeg. Best risk will be closer to the US border. 15-30 mm is possible under the heaviest rains, or more if there are embedded thunderstorms. Because of this later scenario for tomorrow, we'll likely only reach high teens to near 20°C for a high.

    Mix of sun and cloud on Monday with a pop up shower possible, but the risk is low. Should reach low 20's. Unsettled conditions remain on Tuesday with a slight chance of a pop up shower or thundershower. Should reach mid 20's.

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  9. Rain will be intensifying through the next hour and likely will continue until the afternoon. 5-15 mm or more mm of rain is likely today. Thunder is possible, but I am doubtful we'll see any storm activity in Winnipeg today. We should see some sun peak out later in the afternoon which should allow for highs around 20-21°C today.

    Lots of sun tomorrow, but with a bit of instability, a pop up shower is possible. Again thunder is possible, but the risk is quite low Winnipeg would get something. Should reach around 23°C or so. Similar on Tuesday, unsettled with a high of 24-25°C.

    Lots of sun Wednesday with a high around 25-26°C. Models are in good agreement that a stronger system will be developing to our south in the US late week, around Thursday-Friday. This could bring some rain for us again, but models are not agreeing on how far north it will push at this time. ECMWF seems to be the furthest north right now, giving us another 15-25 mm. GEM & GFS bringing more around 10 mm right now. Much colder weather behind the low expected regardless, but it is not expected to last very long.

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  10. Deja vu all over again. The story of this summer is how wet the 2nd half of 2 months of the summer have been. Just like June, we have had a very wet 2nd half of August. And to add to the problem, yet another a major system threatens more heavy rain later this week. If this keeps up, this could become an issue in terms of spring flooding in 2015. The summer of 2014 will go down as the summer that had a stormy start and a stormy finish. I picked up 21 mm here at my place in Windsor park today and i'm now at 112 mm for August and most of that since August 17th.

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  11. Looks like generally 17-22 mm or so across the city today. 17.8 mm here in south St Vital at my place, about 18 mm at the airport and 21.3 mm in Charleswood. My total for August is 110.7 mm. Much higher totals of 130+ mm in west and central parts of the city for the month.

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