Saturday, 20 September 2014

Rain & Storms Today Then Warming Up

You can access this webcam by CBC at any time here
     In case you slept in this morning, thick radiation fog blanketed the city early this morning. The CBC webcam just southwest of downtown (seen to the right) looked pretty cool this morning as it was above the fog. Winnipeg's skyscrapers were poking out above the fog.

     Another thing I want to mention was the supercell storm just south of the border last night. The storm dumped what appears to be baseball sized hail just south of Emerson as seen in this photo. The storm then dropped a tornado into Minnesota, just south of the Canadian border. This video possibly shows this tornado.

     For today, showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to begin sometime after 10:30 am in Winnipeg and end in the afternoon. Showers may be heavy at times, especially in storms. Even after the main band passes through, the chance for showers and pop-up storms remain for the remainder of the day. A good 5-10 mm, more in storms, could fall today.

     A fairly cloudy start to tomorrow with possibly some patchy fog. Clearer skies for the afternoon and we should reach around 17°C or so, seasonal for this time of year.

     The warmup begins on Monday with nothing but sun and highs around 23°C or so. Similar on Tuesday with highs around 24-25°C. The warm conditions are expected to continue throughout the entire week and possibly even into next weekend. This will make for a fantastic end  to September and will coincide with the leaf-colour change to create some wonderful fall-photo opportunities. This will also be good news for farmers who need warm and dry weather. For the Winnipeg area, this will extend the growing season later than normal. The 1981-2010 normal first frost at the airport is September 24, but we'll be pushing it much later this year. We likely wont get our first frost until October this year.


  1. Genrally 8-11 mm in Winnipeg so far today including 9.8 mm here at my place. More showers likely to move in in a couple of hours or so. Thunderstorms possible but I expect lightning to be quite sporadic and scattered so the chance is low that we'd get something here. A few more mm, or a bit more if we get some downpours, possible nonetheless by the end of the day.

  2. Just one last cool day to get through today... Only reaching 16-18°C under more cloud than sun. Looks like the patchy fog did come true for early this morning as well.

    Perfectly sunny tomorrow and Tuesday with highs around 23-24°C tomorrow and 25-26°C Tuesday. The warmth is expected to continue until AT LEAST The September 29 to October 1 period... potentially even a bit longer. Mid to high twenties will continue nonetheless mid-late week and into the weekend including highs around 25-28°C Wednesday and possibly even getting close to 30°C near the end of the week... So I do think public forecasts are underestimating highs slightly for this coming week, but we'll have to wait and see how warm it gets tomorrow to get a better idea.

  3. High of about 24°C for today, around 25-26°C tomorrow, 23-24°C Wednesday, and 27-29°C for Thursday and Friday. Can't get much better than that for this time of year! Overnight lows will be quite mild as well, in the mid teens, thanks to increasing humidity. At this point, it looks like the warmth will continue on the weekend, but models have trended a bit cooler. Looks like a cool down may be in store by the Sep 28 to September 30 period. It does look like we'll be flirting with record high dewpoints and record high minimum temperatures mid-late week.

  4. I must note that humidity later this week may end up being the highlight of this warm spell. Both GEM and NAM models giving dewpoints near 20°C on Thursday and GEM again on Friday. If we manage to reach dewpoints that high, it would be an unprecedented event. Dewpoint records for the last week of September are only in the 14-17°C range. If we manage to reach a dewpoint of 20°C, it would be the latest for that to occur since dewpoint records began in 1953. Old record is September 20 with a dewpoint of 20.0°C in 1972...

    Will keep you all up to date on any records that we manage to break later this week.

  5. Wow, all the way up to 26°C today, so it looks like models are underestimating highs with this warm spell so far. Makes me very curious to see how warm we'll get late this week when 850 mb and 925 mb temperatures are expected to be at least 5°C warmer than today. The higher humidity may make it difficult to get too, too hot, but 30°C definitely not out of the question. I'll also raise my expectations for tomorrow to 26-27°C and Wednesday to 24-26°C.