The first 20°C of the year occurred on April 11 with a high of 22.1°C at Winnipeg Int'l A. This was just over a week earlier than the normal of April 20 and just under a month earlier than in 2013 and 2014. In total, 6 days exceeded 20°C in April, slightly above the normal of 4 days and the most since 2010. An early spring combined with drier than normal conditions to produce blowing dust on windy days through April. April 15 will be remembered well for this when wind gusts over 80 km/h produced significantly reduced visibility in blowing dust outside the city. Winds also caused damage with some broken windows, ripped shingles and other damages reported on social media. That same day, record highs occurred. Winnipeg Int'l A reached 24.8°C, breaking the old record of 24.1°C in 2006.
Another burst of warmth occurred at the end of the month with highs in the mid to high 20's. A high of 27.4°C on April 30 was the warmest in April since 2001. Trees finally began budding during this late month warm spell as well.
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The forecast:
The warmth continues for now...
For today, lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 20's. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 20 to 30 km/h.
Tomorrow will feature the peak of the warm spell with highs approaching 30°C in the Red River Valley. Highs will depend on how quickly cloud increases in the afternoon. Areas closer to the US border that manage to remain quite sunny for part of the afternoon have the potential to hit the 30°C mark. 30°C might be a stretch for Winnipeg, but highs around 28 to 29°C are possible. I will provide an update tomorrow morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon. Due to low moisture levels, high cloud bases are expected. Strong winds will be the main threat with locally strong wind gusts and reduced visibility in blowing dust possible near thunderstorms.
Mild conditions continue for Sunday and Monday with highs not far from 20°C.
Models hint at a stronger system sometime mid-late next week which could bring some significant rainfall. Too early for specifics.
Middle of next week definitely looks promising. While it may be early, there is good model agreement on 25+ mm at least of precip. Confidence seems fairly high at this point.
ReplyDeleteThunderstorms beginning to fire west of Emerson and south of the border this afternoon. Not producing much rainfall but they are producing a lot of lightning.
ReplyDeleteCell popped up just north of Winnipeg now as well and west of Morris. Could still get something in Winnipeg but it will be a close call.
DeleteWell, we had some thunder here in south St Vital earlier and a few sprinkles. Better than nothing! Officially first thunderstorm of the year for my station. Some gusty winds, but nothing we haven't seen before. Main risk has now pushed east, but some more isolated popup sprinkles or a bit of thunder remains possible for another couple hours.
DeleteDefinitely some close calls to 30°C today in the RRV. Emerson got up to 29.8°C before cooling. Winnipeg airport's high is 28.9°C so far up to 4 pm.
ReplyDeleteWinkler was the only location to hit 30°C yesterday with a high of 30.2°C. Many 28-29°C readings throughout the RRV and southeastern Manitoba including 28.9°C at Winnipeg airport.
ReplyDeleteJJ, are thunderstorms a possibility with that major system mid-week?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Depends on system track. I suppose a bit of lightning is possible in southeastern Manitoba Wednesday night, but probably nothing very significant.
DeleteI've decided to take a break for the month of May with blogging. Hope to return in June, but I wouldn't be surprised if I don't come back until July. I was hoping I'd have enough time to update the forecasts but after this week it's clear I just wont. Keep in touch with A Weather Moment for updates as it looks like that's the only blog right now that's providing regular forecasts for the time being.
ReplyDeleteStatistics summaries will still be posted here. If there are some big events I may have some summary posts as well.
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ReplyDeleteJJ, I will be back online blogging at www.michaelmcgregor7.wix.com/southmbweather
ReplyDeleteDewpoint record broken today, reaching over 16°C this afternoon so far. Old record was 14.5°C in 2001. Interesting considering how dry we have been lately... Quite the plume of moisture advecting northward for this time of year.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a general 10-15 mm of rainfall in Winnipeg with this system. 12.1 mm here at my place and about 13 mm at the airport. Highest amounts close to the Saskatchewan border with 20-50 mm of rainfall. Reston (38+ mm), Hamiota (35.5 mm) and Virden (45.2 mm) were especially harder hit. All these amounts are up to 4 pm today.
ReplyDeleteDisappointing outcome from what could've been a real soaker for us. Models kept flip flopping but I would've figured we'd get at least 30 mm. We just can't catch a break around here.
ReplyDeleteWhat upsets me (and I know its weather, deal with it) is that it seemed like there was a lot of hype on this system, from the models and forecasters. Its been years since we've had a slam dunk Colorado low and now we've lost our chance once again. Is it going to be one of those years again? We've been in a deficit for how long now? Since 2011?
ReplyDeleteNot sure how long it's been since a ''slam dunk Colorado Low''. Really depends how you define that expression. We've certainly had some decent systems in the last couple years, such as in June last year when we received over 60 mm of rain in just two days (including 40.1 mm on June 15 which was a daily rainfall record). I believe, if I remember well, that at least part of that was associated with a Colorado Low.
DeleteEither way, we've certainly been in a very dull pattern for quite a while now with not much to talk about other than temperatures.
JJ, what are your thoughts on that potential Colorado later this weekend. Could it be possible. Accumulating snow. I sure hope not.
DeleteThank you,
Anon
Anon, I don't think will see any snow with that system, in fact so far it's expected that this system will stay mainly to the south and east of Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteSorry, I was in North Dakota this weekend so couldn't update. It rained on us all day today over there.
ReplyDeleteThis week certainly not looking as warm as it did last week. Looks like below normal temps will persist until week's end. The end of the week also looks more active with rain and possible thunderstorms. Could that be? of course it's the May long weekend.
ReplyDeleteGenerally 30-40 mm of rain in the southern RRV yesterday including 36.8 mm in Altona, 41.0 mm in Letellier, 38.6 mm in St Pierre and 33.1 mm in Morris. 20-25 mm in Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteAnother round of rain coming tomorrow and Sunday. Some thunderstorms are possible tomorrow in fact. I don't think the severe risk is very good for southern Manitoba with just an isolated severe storm possible close the US border. I'm thinking these storms will be mainly big rain makers. Small hail and gusty winds are possible as well. Sunday looks downright miserable with strong north/northeast winds gusting up to 70-80 km/h likely. Rain will likely fall most of the day as well. 20+ mm possible with the system in total. 50 mm is not out of the question in the heaviest rains (which is not clear yet where that will be).
Rain may even changeover to snow Sunday night if precipitation is still falling. If snow does fall, it would be the latest snowfall I personally have ever experienced.
Thunderstorm risk appears to be best to our south and east for tomorrow night. In fact, multiple rounds of thunderstorms possible south of the border and close to the Ontario border Saturday through Sunday. Some thunder possible for Winnipeg but I don't expect anything too strong. Mainly a rain event for us (and possibly wintry precip late Sunday into early Monday?). Yikes! However, if the system does push a bit further west a tad, Winnipeg could get into some more thunderstorm activity.
DeleteBy the way, the last time we've had snow this late in the season was 2002 with a dusting of snow on May 23. In general, it is quite rare to get even just a snowflake after May 15.
Deletei'm trying to remember if i have ever seen as awful a May long at this one's going to be. Turning out to be yet another awful May. April was actually nicer. Well this was a decent Spring until now.
DeleteWow! Whoever said its been a long time since we have had a slam dunk colorado low, well here you go. 50-70mm of rain. 80K winds and possibly snow. Brandon and Dauphin could get 15cm out of it. What a truly awful forecast.
ReplyDeleteWill have a new post later this morning with just a quick summary of the upcoming storm. This post is getting old...
ReplyDelete