Fast-Forewarding to Spring

     An unseasonably warm airmass has now given southern Manitoba record high temperatures for the 4th consecutive day. Winnipeg has already broken 3 records in this warm spell, and amazingly this is only the beginning. What we've seen so far is just a harbinger of what's yet to come. The snow pack is now mostly all gone; grass is now the dominant landscape feature. This will open the door to May-like temperatures to end the week, and into the weekend.

     Here are the records that Winnipeg has broken so far:

    Date.........Value............Type.................Old Record
March 11 -   12.8°C   high maximum   (old 12.5°C in 1981)
March 12 -    9.7°C    high maximum   (old 7.2°C in 1922)
March 12 -    2.5°C    high minimum    (old 1.6°C in 1995)

     Many more records are expected to be broken later on this week to add to that list. Keep in mind that normal highs around this time of year are around -1°C, while normal lows are closer to -11°C. Beginning Thursday, temperatures in southern Manitoba are expected to be at least 12 degrees above those norms.

      Here are the highs I am forecasting until Monday along with the record highs. As you can see, many records could be broken:

  Day.........Forecasted High........Old Record
Thursday           13°C                11.1°C in 1927
Friday                20°C                12.4°C in 1981
Saturday            16°C                12.8°C in 1938
Sunday              17°C                14.4°C in 1910
Monday              21°C                18.9°C in 1938
*Forecast updated March 15 7:45 AM
     If we do manage to hit 20°C in this time frame, which is certainly a possibility, it would be the earliest we ever hit 20°C since records began in 1873. Currently the earliest 20°C ever was on March 23, 1910 when we hit 22.8°C.

     At this point, it even appears we might squeeze in another warm-high teens day on Monday, although confidence in that is still uncertain at this point. It also appears very likely that warm weather will continue through most of the rest of March. NAEFS forecast still showing 90-100% chance of above normal temperatures late next week, and the beginning of the last week of March. CPC in the US also showing a good chance of above normal temperatures for the next 2 weeks. Stay tuned for updates...

NAEFS forecast showing 90-100% chance of above normal temps.
between March 21 and 28. The warm weather is here for a while!

Welcome Spring!

     Looks like we will be getting an early start to Spring after all. The warmup starts today, and this warmth is expected to last for up to 2 weeks or more. Temperatures will remain above zero for daytime highs, and for some nights as well. It is definitely safe to say that this winter will be the second winter in 140 years without a single -30°C reading.

     Temperatures today will reach around 5°C in the city, and that will be the norm for the next few days. Many models and forecasts are showing temperatures reaching double digits later next week, and that is certainly in the realm of possibility. Although, it wont happen until all this snow melts. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures, some above-zero nights and even some rain in the near-future will definitely get rid of the snow for us, the question is just when.

     Monday could be an interesting day, as we will get brushed by a potential rain storm coming up from the US. Most models seem to keep most of the rain along the Ontario border, and in NW Ontario, although we may still get some showers here in the city. I'll keep you all updated on this system as Monday draws closer. Also stay tuned in the next week to see if we will break any warmth records.

NAEFS forecast showing ~80% chance of above normal temps between
March 18 and 25 in the Winnipeg area. Link here

Winter 2011/2012, the Winter That Never Was?

     Well, it's finally March :) Although, it has felt more like March already since November!

     This winter was honestly one of the strangest winters ever across much of Canada. And has that ever been true in southern Manitoba.

     In Winnipeg, December was the 9th mildest on record, January was the 3rd mildest and February was the 14th mildest. As a result, with an average mean temperature of -9.7°C, winter 2011/2012 was the 4th mildest winter on record in the city, since records began in 1873. February also marked the 8th consecutive month above normal, a streak which began in July.

Top 5 warmest winters (mean temperature)
1. -7.2°C 1877/1878
2. -8.2°C 1997/1998
3. -9.5°C 1986/1987
4. -9.7°C 2011/2012
5. -10.1°C 1930/1931

     Here are the details of the winter:
     Despite technically being in a La Nina, a strong AO kept arctic air bottled up north throughout most of the winter. Mild Pacific flows of air were frequent as a result. 20 days from December to February saw temperatures above zero, above the normal of 10 days. That was quite meager in comparison to surrounding towns. For instance, Morden saw 41 days with above zero temperatures!

Biking in January

     Early January was especially startling with a week of temperatures not even dropping below -10°C. Temperatures were as much as 20°C above normal on some days, and that lasted for just over a week. January 5 was the highlight of the winter with temperatures reaching double digits across much of the western Red River Valley. Many all-time January high records were challenged that day, although not reached. Winnipeg's high of 6.7°C was just shy of the all-time January high of 7.8°C.
     We did not reach -30°C once this winter in Winnipeg, only the second time that has occurred since 1873. The coldest temperature was a measly -28.9°C, the warmest winter minimum on record.

     Another highlight of the winter was Christmas. It was a rare brown Christmas for much of southwestern Manitoba and the western/southern RRV. It was not officially a brown Christmas in Winnipeg, although snow depth was just 2 cm. It was the first brown Christmas in southern Manitoba since 1997. In WPG, since 1955 only 7 Christmases have had 3 cm of snow or less on the ground.

     Snowfalls were hard to come by this winter. At least, that was the case until late February when 4 systems dumped almost 20 cm over the city in about a week. December was the 9th least snowy December on record. From December to February, 44.2 cm of snow fell in the city, slightly below the normal 57.1 cm, therefore not overly significant. Although, melting was frequent, explaining why snow depth was so minimal. It certainly isn't every winter that you can see grass in January and February!

Christmas in Emerson