Tuesday, 13 March 2012

Fast-Forewarding to Spring

     An unseasonably warm airmass has now given southern Manitoba record high temperatures for the 4th consecutive day. Winnipeg has already broken 3 records in this warm spell, and amazingly this is only the beginning. What we've seen so far is just a harbinger of what's yet to come. The snow pack is now mostly all gone; grass is now the dominant landscape feature. This will open the door to May-like temperatures to end the week, and into the weekend.

     Here are the records that Winnipeg has broken so far:

    Date.........Value............Type.................Old Record
March 11 -   12.8°C   high maximum   (old 12.5°C in 1981)
March 12 -    9.7°C    high maximum   (old 7.2°C in 1922)
March 12 -    2.5°C    high minimum    (old 1.6°C in 1995)

     Many more records are expected to be broken later on this week to add to that list. Keep in mind that normal highs around this time of year are around -1°C, while normal lows are closer to -11°C. Beginning Thursday, temperatures in southern Manitoba are expected to be at least 12 degrees above those norms.

      Here are the highs I am forecasting until Monday along with the record highs. As you can see, many records could be broken:

  Day.........Forecasted High........Old Record
Thursday           13°C                11.1°C in 1927
Friday                20°C                12.4°C in 1981
Saturday            16°C                12.8°C in 1938
Sunday              17°C                14.4°C in 1910
Monday              21°C                18.9°C in 1938
*Forecast updated March 15 7:45 AM
     If we do manage to hit 20°C in this time frame, which is certainly a possibility, it would be the earliest we ever hit 20°C since records began in 1873. Currently the earliest 20°C ever was on March 23, 1910 when we hit 22.8°C.

     At this point, it even appears we might squeeze in another warm-high teens day on Monday, although confidence in that is still uncertain at this point. It also appears very likely that warm weather will continue through most of the rest of March. NAEFS forecast still showing 90-100% chance of above normal temperatures late next week, and the beginning of the last week of March. CPC in the US also showing a good chance of above normal temperatures for the next 2 weeks. Stay tuned for updates...
NAEFS forecast showing 90-100% chance of above normal temps.
between March 21 and 28. The warm weather is here for a while!


  1. Interesting read by Dr. Jeff Master talking about the heat wave in the US, and incredible warmth that many will be sharing with us over the next several days. This warmth is truely unprecedented. Link here:


  2. OK now the real warmup begins. Starting off a little ''chilly'' this morning at -2 or -1°C. We wont be seeing lows this cool for a little while. My forecasted high for today is 13°C, while the old record today is 11.1°C in 1927. Got a good shot at breaking that record, and many more from now to Tuesday.

    Models even showing the possibility of some, yes, thunderstorm activity Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Personally, I find it hard to believe we'll see the amount of moisture that models are advertising, since it is just too early in the season. There's no plants around to aid raising our moisture levels through evapotranspiration, which is often an important factor in our moisture in the summer. We'll have to wait and see, though I'm not buying it just yet.

    A thundertorm this early in the year would be unprecedented, and from what I know it could even be the earliest storm on record for WPG. Though, I do not have official stats on that.

    My forecast for tomorrow is 20°C, which would be the earliest 20°C ever for Winnipeg in any year. Stay tuned for updates

  3. Officially a record warm day in the city today, at 13C as of 3 pm. That beats the old record of 11.1 in 1927. It's quite windy, although I think many of us would take the south wind to enjoy this warmth.

    Tomorrow still looks very warm. NAM model showing temperatures in the mid twenties along the US Border and in the Southwestern Manitoba. It looks fairly sunny tomorrow, so highs near 20°C will certainly be possible. I'll be giving an update later this evening, or in the morning as 20°C would be quite a benchmark.

  4. FYI, today's the second warmest day on record for so early in the year in Winnipeg. The warmest day is 16.5°C on March 6, back in 2000.