Monday 29 April 2013

A Little Bit of Everything in Manitoba Over the Next 36 hours

     A vigorous clipper system is already spreading an area of rain in southwestern and western Manitoba this morning and early this afternoon. These showers will spread eastward through the day today and likely reach the Red River Valley by late afternoon. Generally 2-5 mm is expected with this area of rain. However, due to the convective nature of the rain, locally heavy rains are expected giving locally higher amounts.

     A breezy south wind will also be felt today, and that mixed with the cloudy skies will make it feel chillier than it really is. However, enjoy the little warmth we have right now (hint hint)...

     By this evening, a few thundershowers will be possible in southwestern Manitoba, including in Brandon. However, keep in mind this threat is small, so I wouldn't get too excited about it just yet. I'll let you know in the comments if any lightning is reported.

     Meanwhile, scattered showers will continue across southern Manitoba until another more organised batch of rainfall and possibly embedded rumbles of thunder from North Dakota moves in overnight. Moderate to heavy rains are expected at times, especially in southeastern Manitoba. By noon on Tuesday, an additional 5-15 mm is expected to have fallen over southeastern Manitoba, lesser amounts out west.

     In the overnight, rainfall will changeover to snowfall over western Manitoba and the central/northern Interlake regions. This snowfall will continue all day on Tuesday, heavy at times. 10-20 cm is expected from Russell to Wasagaming, Dauphin, Swan River, the central and northern Interlake and east of Lake Winnipeg. Locally higher amounts are possible. Strong northwest winds will create drifting snow and poor visibility.

     The following table is my precipitation forecast for some of Manitoba's biggest cities for the entire system (up to Wednesday morning). Keep in mind that due to the convective nature of the precipitation in many areas, amounts will vary. This forecast is simply a generalisation and gives a good idea of where the heaviest amounts are expected.





Community
Rainfall
Snowfall
Brandon
5-10 mm
2-4 cm
Dauphin
Less than 5 mm
10-20 cm
Portage
5-10 mm
Less than 2 cm
Morden/Winkler
5-10 mm
Dusting
Winnipeg
10-20 mm
Less than 2 cm
Steinbach
10-20 mm
Dusting
Kenora, Ontario
15-25 mm
Dusting

     Tuesday will be miserable! Strong northwest winds will dominate southern Manitoba and temperatures will fall throughout the day. Here in Winnipeg, temperatures will fall to the freezing mark by late afternoon which will turn any falling precipitation into snow. A slushy cm or two is possible, but it will be a close call as most of the precipitation late tomorrow is expected to stay to our north.

     Unfortunately, behind this system we end up under another northerly flow and very chilly temperatures aloft. Overnight lows will be below zero through until Friday with daytime highs in the single digits. Wednesday is expected to be the coldest with daytime highs struggling to exceed the freezing mark. This will be well-below the normal high of 15-16°C for this time of year.


    However, thankfully this cool down is not expected to last long. Temperatures are expected to rebound by the weekend. As for the longer long range, no major systems are expected for the next week after today's system. Temperatures look fairly seasonal to seasonably cool with no major prolonged warmups expected anytime soon.

13 comments:

  1. Already had a few sprinkles here in the city, which are ahead of the main band which will move in about 30-50 min from now. Doesn't look to last very long and it looks like we'll see a break in the evening for at least part of the evening. The main event comes overnight tonight. Heaviest rain expected south and east of the city with that.

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  2. Minnedosa-Russel-Neepawa has been added to the snowfall warning. 10-20 cm expected there.

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  3. 4.3 mm of rainfall at my place with this first band which has now moved away. We'll see a break now with rain beginning later tonight.

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  4. JJ is there a chance that we could be seeing a few rumbles of thunder and or a light thunderstorm tonight in the Winnipeg region. The NWS is mentioning scattered showers and thunderstorms south of the border & convection firing up from 10pm to 1am. Spotwx NAM is also showing some instability in areas in and around Winnipeg. What do you think? Are You still sticking to your forecast? Thank's- Mike....

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  5. I do feel that there is a chance for thundershowers across southern Manitoba overnight tonight.. but again it looks spotty in nature. Therefore, it's hard to say if we'll get any in Winnipeg.. if we get lucky we may but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. (but I will keep my window a tad open in case ;) )

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  6. That area of rain just missed the city overnight to the southeast... Didn't get any rain until early this morning. 10-15 mm has fallen since yesterday afternoon in Steinbach and Emerson according to cocorahs observers.

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  7. Showers have filled into the RRV now. We'll be seeing showers the entire morning here in Winnipeg, and then this afternoon a few showers are still possible. We may see flurries later this afternoon and this evening but they shouldn't accumulate too heavily. 5-10 mm of rainfall is expected in the city today.

    Winds wont increase until this afternoon, so it wont be AS miserable as it first appeared. However, temperatures will still fall this afternoon, reaching the freezing mark late afternoon or early evening.

    An isolated rumble of thunder is possible this morning, but storm activity across southern Manitoba is mainly over for the most part. There were some storms in southwestern Manitoba and near Sprague early this morning, the first lightning strikes of the season in southern Manitoba!

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  8. My goodness, this is how it looks in Dauphin this morning!!

    http://past.theweathernetwork.com/your_weather/details/620/11093495/Dauphin/upload/0/1232?ref=ugc_yourweather_search&title=goodmorning

    http://past.theweathernetwork.com/your_weather/details/620/11094156/Dauphin/upload/0/786?ref=ugc_yourweather_search&title=spring%20day

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  9. 5 mm just in the last 2 hours at my place.. 10-20 mm not out of the question in some areas today instead of that 5-10 mm.

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  10. 18.1 mm total at my place in south St Vital this morning.. 22.4 mm since yesterday afternoon.

    Also reports of 23 mm in Norwood, 22 mm in Dakota Crossing and 16 mm in Charleswood.

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  11. There will be a few scattered showers this afternoon, changing to flurries later in the afternoon. Shouldn't see any more drenching rains like this morning however.

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  12. The record books page has been revitalised with a new look.

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  13. 0.5 cm at my place so far this evening.. Looks like higher amounts in the northern part of the city according to radar. We will continue to see scatterd flurries through the night and possibly tomorrow morning.

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