Monday, 3 June 2013

No Major Prolonged Warmups In the Near-Future

     We will see some high cloud move into the city today ahead of a low pressure system moving south of the border. This system will bring showers to areas close to the US border tonight and tomorrow. However, exact rainfall amounts will be tough to predict for that area due to the fact that there will be a sharp line between the high amounts and the nil amounts. This sharp line could end up right along the US border or a bit north. If the further north track verifies, 10-25 mm would be possible for border towns such as Melita, Morden, Emerson and Sprague. However, if the southern track verifies, look for just a few showers with little accumulation. We'll have to wait and see. Winnipeg is expected to just remain mostly cloudy tomorrow.

     Beyond that, it looks like we may see some slightly warmer temperatures mid week with highs in the low to mid twenties, which is only seasonal now. This will continue until the weekend when another strong system could potentially affect southern Manitoba. We will have to keep a close eye on this one as it could bring some heavy rainfall to some areas if it does materialise.

     In the longer range, there aren't any strong signals of a significant turn to warmer and more prolonged above normal temperatures just yet.

UPDATE June 6, 2013: Looks like there's a good chance of seeing some warm weather next week with perhaps a day or two in the high 20's. There could also be an increase in humidity. Will have a new post tomorrow.

22 comments:

  1. According to EC in northern manitoba this week it could get up to 27, while here the most we'll get 21! What the heck!!!!!!???????

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    1. The weather is so twisted these days!

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  2. More clarity about tonight's/tomorrow's system: looks like the rain will make it on our side of the border tonight. Already started in Melita. Extreme southwest corner around Melita will likely receive 15-25 mm of rain by tomorrow night. Morden/Emerson will get some showers overnight/tomorrow with 2-5 mm possible, maybe a bit more depending how far north the rain gets. Sprague should be mainly dry with a chance of showers.

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  3. City of Winnipeg has made a map of rainfall amounts from its stations across the city for the May 30-31 event:
    http://www.winnipeg.ca/waterandwaste/pdfs/drainageFlooding/rainfallReports/130530Map.pdf

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  4. A note about the records page..
    I'm not too sure what I'm going to do about the Calgary stats... All possible stations that I could use have an outrageous amount of missing data. Might not be able to update their stats anymore if this continues. Keep in mind they haven't been updated in a few months now due to this.

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  5. El Reno, Oklahoma tornado last week upgraded to EF-5, but now considered as the widest tornado ever recorded at 4.2 km wide! Crazy!

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  6. Both GFS and GEM are saying that we will get about 30-60 MM of rain on saturday! That sounds a bit over the top. In general how much rain could we see if anything?

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    1. It's looking like a fairly moisture-laden system, so I'd say those amounts are possible somewhere, depending on system placement. Also looks like there could be a better chance for thunderstorms this time as the system is expected to be a bit further north than last time. Could be why they are giving such high amounts, reflecting thunderstorm activity.
      Note ECMWF is giving much lower amounts... but it is much slower with the system.

      Big disagreement on timing and placement of system right now.

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  7. Thank for the info Julien! I sure hope we get a thunderstorm, today marks our 283 day without thunder!

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    1. It's actually the 284th consecutive day without thunder today; now officially the second latest start to the thunderstorm season in the city and only 2 days away at tying for longest period without a thunderstorm. The countdown begins ;)

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  8. From what I'm seeing, cloud cover is a problem when it comes to thunderstorm activity Saturday.. But we'll see, still a ways away.
    Can't remember the last time we had such difficulty getting just 1 good storm setup, even 2011 and 2012 were better.

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  9. Another weekend another Storm?

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    1. Hey Don, Thanks for visiting my blog =)
      You're right, a long-standing tradition in Manitoba!

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  10. Couldn't believe my eyes looking at the weather models this morning. A significant shift in the forecasts for this weekend with more of a split flow advertised with part of the system moving south of the border and the other stalling over central/northern Saskatchewan. Us Manitobans have become accustomed to these types of scenarios in the last few years...

    This will mean less rain, but still a showery Saturday is expected. The thunderstorm risk is lower with the bulk of the instability and lift remaining south of the border. We could still some, but with all the cloud cover and showery conditions expected, certainly not the best risk.

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  11. We could see some thunderstorm activity here in southeastern Manitoba tomorrow however with a weak frontal system, but it will be scattered and hit and miss at best.

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  12. On a brighter note, it does appear we may finally see some warmer weather next week. Not completely clear how long the warmth will last though. We could see temperatures in the high 20's on some days.

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  13. With the way things are going right now, do you expect a change any time soon? Could we possibly start getting active as we head later into June? I'm hoping and praying that this year turns out like 2005. Thank's JJ....

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    1. We will eventually get more active with thunderstorms that's for sure; they can't escape us forever after all. When exactly that will happen, I don't know, predicting thunderstorms that far in the future is beyond my expertise. Mother Nature is really testing our patience this year!

      As for next week, as I mentioned some warm weather is expected. This will be thanks to a ridge which is expected to form over the central continent with troughs on both coasts. This COULD be the start of a more increased risk of thunderstorms as weak systems travel along the jet stream, but it's still too early to be specific. NWS Grand Forks south of the border mentions Wednesday as our first chance for some storms in North Dakota and maybe even here. It's also not certain yet how long this ridging will last, right now it doesn't look like it will be very long.

      From the best of my expertise, that's as much as I can say for that far in the future.

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  14. Varied rainfall amounts in the city from this morning. The band of rain that came through before 6 am dissipated as it hit the central part of the city, it was most likely encountering drier air. As a result, rainfall amounts higher in west end than other parts. Only 0.8 mm at my place in south St Vital but 2.8 mm in west end and in Charleswood reported.

    Starting to update the forecasts now.

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  15. I'm skeptical of that sunny weekend public forecast, especially Sunday. Although yes most of the rain is expected to miss us, I don't think we'll have a sunny weekend neither. Every model that I have looked at shows us mostly cloudy on Sunday, some bringing in some scattered showers. We will see some sun tomorrow, so at least the a mix of sun and cloud forecast is reasonable for tomorrow.

    Still some uncertainty with the forecast this weekend when it comes ot rainfall amounts, if we get any at all. Best chance for Winnipeg will be Sunday night and Sunday

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  16. Front clearly visible when looking at wind directions in southern Manitoba as of 11 am:

    http://puu.sh/3aoVy

    It's somewhere between Portage and Carberry at this point.

    Hoping to see some scattered storms fire up later this afternoon.. Not a widespread event, but still better than nothing :P

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    1. Oh and the numbers are dewpoints.

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