Friday, 7 June 2013

Unsettled; Warm Weather Next Week

     For today, we have a weak front passing through south-central Manitoba. Some low amounts of instability should be enough to spark off some scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Best risk will be along the escarpment and western/southern RRV. Still a chance elsewhere, mainly in southeastern Manitoba, the Interlake and east of Lake Winnipeg. Some small hail and gusty winds may accompany any storms that form, but they are expected to remain non-severe.

     What had looked like a rainy weekend a couple days ago now looks drier, but not completely dry for everyone. This can be blamed on the system to our west splitting into 2 seperate low pressure systems. One will move southeastwards into the US, missing Manitoba. The other is expected to retrograde northwestward into central/northern Saskatchewan or Alberta by the end of the weekend, ''like if it were scared of Manitoba''. Here's a visual of the seperation:

Images courtesy of Image from the NAM model, heights/winds at 925 mb level

     A trough connecting both systems will slowly move across southern Manitoba, bringing a chance of showers on Saturday in western areas and Sunday for most of southern Manitoba. Not a whole lot of rain is expected, it certainly wont be comparable to last week's storm. Only a few mm in general, with locally higher amounts under any heavier bands that manage to develop. Best chance for rain will be in western areas.

     However, since the southern system will be missing us to the south, the bulk of the instability and lift is expected to remain south of the border. This reduces the thunderstorm threat significantly. There could be some embedded rumbles in the rain in western areas on Saturday, but they certainly wont be widespread if they do occur.

     For Winnipeg specifically, expect some sun and some cloud mixed on Saturday. Cloud will be most numerous in the PM hours with more sun than cloud in the morning. On Sunday, it looks like we'll see more cloud than sun with a chance for showers. If this forecast changes, I'll update in the comments.

     For next week, a ridge in the jet stream is expected to develop over the central continent with troughs on both sides by mid week. This will allow for some warmer weather here in southern Manitoba. However, some weak systems are expected to move along the jet stream which will bring times of cloud and chances for showers and storms here and there during the week (too early to be specific exactly when). As a result, daytime highs will be dependent on how much cloud there is. Nonetheless, if we get sunshine daytime highs in the high 20's will be possible on some days, especially late in the week. Too early to say how long the warmth will last.


  1. Some thundershowers forming west, southwest and east of Winnipeg now (all around us).

  2. Lots of towering cumulus over south end right now.. Something could pop soon.

  3. First rumble of thunder of the year here in south St Vital. Anyone have any rainfall or thunder reports?

  4. Rainfall totals so far today as of 7 pm (including the rain we had this morning):

    Charleswood 5.6 mm
    South St Vital (me) 2.1 mm

    Carman 4.5 mm
    Winkler 5.2 mm
    St. Adolphe 9.6 mm

    Note that St Adolphe (just south of Wpg along Red River) measured 9.6 mm just in the last hour (between 6 and 7 pm). Also, it's still raining lightly here in south Wpg.

  5. Looking like a pleasant day today thankfully with lots of sun and temperatures reaching the mid 20's. I'm anticipating a high of 25°C here in Winnipeg. We will see a bit of cloud this afternoon but it does not look something that will ruin the day right now. It will be breezy out of the southeast however.

    Tomorrow things change so enjoy today. It will be cloudier with only a few sunny breaks here and there. Good chance for showers in the afternoon and evening. Not much accumulation, perhaps a few mm.

    Monday things get a tad interesting again. Looks like we will get a good amount of lift and instability thanks to the system in Saskatchewan. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across southern Manitoba, with the best risk in the Interlake and Parklands.

    Still looking like we're in for warm weather mid/late week, but let's just hope cloud cover doesn't ruin things.