What had looked like a rainy weekend a couple days ago now looks drier, but not completely dry for everyone. This can be blamed on the system to our west splitting into 2 seperate low pressure systems. One will move southeastwards into the US, missing Manitoba. The other is expected to retrograde northwestward into central/northern Saskatchewan or Alberta by the end of the weekend, ''like if it were scared of Manitoba''. Here's a visual of the seperation:
|Images courtesy of Twisterdata.com. Image from the NAM model, heights/winds at 925 mb level|
A trough connecting both systems will slowly move across southern Manitoba, bringing a chance of showers on Saturday in western areas and Sunday for most of southern Manitoba. Not a whole lot of rain is expected, it certainly wont be comparable to last week's storm. Only a few mm in general, with locally higher amounts under any heavier bands that manage to develop. Best chance for rain will be in western areas.
However, since the southern system will be missing us to the south, the bulk of the instability and lift is expected to remain south of the border. This reduces the thunderstorm threat significantly. There could be some embedded rumbles in the rain in western areas on Saturday, but they certainly wont be widespread if they do occur.
For Winnipeg specifically, expect some sun and some cloud mixed on Saturday. Cloud will be most numerous in the PM hours with more sun than cloud in the morning. On Sunday, it looks like we'll see more cloud than sun with a chance for showers. If this forecast changes, I'll update in the comments.
For next week, a ridge in the jet stream is expected to develop over the central continent with troughs on both sides by mid week. This will allow for some warmer weather here in southern Manitoba. However, some weak systems are expected to move along the jet stream which will bring times of cloud and chances for showers and storms here and there during the week (too early to be specific exactly when). As a result, daytime highs will be dependent on how much cloud there is. Nonetheless, if we get sunshine daytime highs in the high 20's will be possible on some days, especially late in the week. Too early to say how long the warmth will last.