Thursday 4 July 2013

Isolated Storms This Evening; Hot Friday

     The dog days of summer continue with another 30°C day today in most parts of Winnipeg. At my place in south St Vital it is now officially a heat wave with 3 consecutive days at or above 32°C:

Highs in south St Vital in the last few days:
32.3°C on Tuesday
32.9°C on Wednesday
32.1°C on Thursday

     A front will sweep through the Winnipeg area in the next few hours from now. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. However, the ingredients are just not aligning well for a widespread storm event. Severe storm risk is not very good, however due to the slow movement of storms some very localized flooding rains are possible.

     Warm and sunny weather continues tomorrow with a high between 28 and 30°C.

     After that, our next chance for showers and thundersorms moves in Saturday. Stay in touch to the comments section below for updates on the potential.

     You may also share your thoughts about Saturday's potential in the following poll:


48 comments:

  1. Extensive area of haze and smoke easily visible on visible satellite behind the front in western Manitoba. So just keep in mind it might be hazy around here tomorrow.

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    1. Gladly that did not materialise here, most of it staying to our north.

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  2. By the way, there was actually a severe thunderstorm warning for the Sprague area around 5 am this morning due to a slow-moving thunderstorm. Radar estimates point at rainfall amounts as high as 50 mm just north of Sprague.

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  3. Whoever is doing that please stop

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  4. Cloud cover remains my main concern when it comes to severe thunderstorm potential tomorrow. If we can't get much, or if any, surface heating then a widespread severe event probably just wont happen.
    However, widespread showers and storms are expected to move from west to east through the day so we could get some storms with that here in Winnipeg in the afternoon. Some areas could get a lot of rain tomorrow, particularly to our west and north.

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  5. Yeah, it even looks like if we can get enough sun and daytime heating there could very well be supercells and possible tornadoes....looks like plenty of shear will be in place.

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  6. I can't believe it Somebody voted "nothing will happen"!

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  7. Environment Canada mentioning the possibility that near rainfall warning rainfall amounts may fall in Swan River and Dauphin areas today. Of course as usual, the heaviest rains go where they are not needed.

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  8. Yeah, and now A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for Southwest Manitoba....looks like severe weather threat will only be in that region today.

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  9. For what it's worth, i'm thinking the Severe Thunderstorm watch will expanded eastward later today...

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    1. I agree with you Anonymous unless the cells weaken...

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  10. Does anyone know why the bethune radar has no data? Thanks

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    1. According to Greg Johnson it was due to a lightning strike.. not sure if he meant a strike nearby or if the station was actually hit.

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    2. Thanks again.

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    3. Anon 11:43, are you on robs blog?

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  11. JJ,
    I noticed on the poll about t storms today that on each thing that only has one vote the % is 16.67 witch is wrong because 6 into a hundred is 16. endless 6 not 16.7.

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    1. They rounded it out to 2 decimals, I don't have the choice of how many decimals are shown. But now that you mention it, it is strange that it says 17% for ''nothing will happen'' and 16.67% for the other 2 with only 1 response

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  12. This blog has become more and more popular in the last few months. when I first found it there where only three people on it now it has probably doubled. Keep up the awesome blog JJ! :)

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    1. Good point Willy, I learn so much about the weather from this blog to.

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  13. Anonymous (12:41) Ya, I also follow and comment on Rob's blog. Fantastic blog to follow. Rob does an amazing job wth it.

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  14. Looks like we might see some sunshine this afternoon which could possibly fuel things further later today. I'm thinking storms if any for Winnipeg is gonna be this evening or later tonight.

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  15. Oops, meant to write anonymous (12:21) not (12:41) on my previous comment.

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  16. JJ, is there a chance for an MCS tonight after everything gets started up? I cannot wait!

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    1. I do think an MCS will form somewhere tonight.
      Some models have advertised a split where most of the activity goes south of the border and into Interlake, missing Winnipeg so unfortunately I can't say it's a gurantee we'll get a big event in Winnipeg.

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    2. Awesome!!!
      I was also looking forward to another MCS. :)

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  17. Nice blog you got there. my name is also Mike!

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  18. I apologize if I assumed everyone here knew what an MCS was; here's a brief description in the simplest terms I can use for anyone who doesn't know:

    MCS stands for mesoscale convective system (mesoscale = of intermediate size... in other words larger than individual thunderstorms but smaller than low-pressure systems).

    It's generally an organised area of thunderstorms. (Squall lines and bow echos are just some of the types of MCS's that exist). They usually last for several hours and around this part of the world they are often nocturnal. MCS's can bring flooding rains, large hail, damaging winds and frequent lightning. In non-severe cases, they will usually bring lots of rain and sometimes frequent lightning.

    The June 25-26 event 2 weeks ago was an example of an MCS and I believe it was a squall line.

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    1. Thank you jj i aprecitet

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    2. JJ,
      would you at all know why MCS's usually happen at night? Thanks

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    3. From the best of my knowledge, they can occur at day too.. but with the loss of heating etc. sometimes they will dissipate or weaken in the early part of the day. In addition, MCS's often form with merging and organisation of individual cells that had formed during the day.

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  19. I'm still not convinced we'll get something that big here in Winnipeg though. HRRR weather model has the storms dissipating as it reaches the RRV.

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  20. You can almost already see that split scenario. Looking at the radar and there are storms well north of transcanada highway in SSK/MB
    and well south of of transcanada highway with nothing in between. So those hoping for some storms tonight, don't pin all your hopes on something that quite frankly is very unlikely to happen. We've seen this before and the result is the same everytime.

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  21. I totally agree with JJ on this one. Thunderstorms is not something Winnipeg when sees a whole lot of. It never has and likely never will. They are just even more rare here in the last couple but that's it.

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  22. Oops, meant to say last couple of years.

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  23. Well, it has cleared up here in Winnipeg. I'd say don't worry about evening outdoor plans here. It's pretty much a sure bet that nothing's gonna happen here tonight. You can also say EC's forecast is way off with the mainly cloudy forecast much like Thursday. I think it's time that we forecast conditions that occur here not the ones that don't. For an area that hardly sees thunderstorms they are sure forecasted quite frequently. Really hard to explain this lack of thunderstorm pattern since 2011. Very odd and it sucks.

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  24. Oops, after so many busts

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  25. I'm mad, why did you delete some comments?

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  26. Whoever voted nothing will happen will propbley be right!

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  27. JJ,
    why is winnipeg in the slight severe thunderstorm risk and the moderate thunderstorm risk?

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  28. JJ, do you think the chances for storms for us in Winnipeg still exists for tonight?

    And what do you think of our storm chances for Tuesday and later next week?

    Anon

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    1. A storm is still possible later tonight around Winnipeg, but the worst of the MCS very well could miss to our north. Still a wait and see scenario.
      Will check the potential Tuesday tomorrow.

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  29. Thanks, JJ.

    Sure could use some rain here. Lawns are frying in this dry weather.

    Anon

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  30. Looks like a squall line is beginning form from north of dauphin south to the american border moving east and northeast....We'll see if we get anything out of that here in Winnipeg overnight.

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  31. Me and a friend watching very impressive lightning show west of Winnipeg.. Lightning is very frequent with anvil crawlers and cloud to ground lightning. Hopefully will try to get a video up tomorrow.
    Looks like Winnipeg will actually get something.

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    1. Well go figure, the storm split right over Winnipeg.

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  32. Looks like we have ourselved 1 winner in the poll!
    Winning answer is 'widespread thunderstorms (with only isolated severe)'. The entire RRV had thunderstorms overnight.

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    1. i voted that!
      sorry about not commenting about the storm last night i could not because i was tracking the storm.

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  33. As for the potential for storms Tuesday, I don't think we'll see much in Winnipeg in the afternoon and evening. It's looking more like a Monday evening through to Tuesday morning type of event... which isn't a bad thing.

    Dynamics are expected to be very strong tomorrow so some severe storms will be possible in southwestern and south-central Manitoba as well as southern Saskatchewan. Some of what forms there could move into the RRV and Winnipeg either Monday evening or Tuesday in the overnight hours.

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