Friday, 4 October 2013

Chilly Today; Frost Likely This Weekend

     Thankfully, a Colorado Low south of the border looks to remain to south and east over the next couple days. As a result, there are no worries of snowfall here in Winnipeg. However, this does not mean we wont feel any effects of the system. Moderately-strong north/northeasterly winds today and tomorrow will draw in much more fall-like temperatures. In addition, today will be fairly cloudy.

     For today, it will be a cloudy one. Other than perhaps a couple breaks in the cloud here and there, it doesn't look like we'll see the sun much today if at all. Temperatures will only reach the high single digits with a high of 9°C anticipated in Winnipeg. North-northeasterly winds between 20 and 30 km/h are expected with gusts to 40 km/h at times.

     The sun returns tomorrow as the Colorado Low begins to move further away. After a mix of sun and cloud in the morning, the afternoon looks fairly sunny. We should see temperatures rise to the low teens with a high of 11°C expected in Winnipeg. It is of note that frost will be likely in southwestern Manitoba Saturday morning as temperatures dip to between -1°C and -4°C. This frost may get as close as the western RRV. Here in Winnipeg there may be some patchy frost, but it doesn't look widespread at this point.

     A better chance for frost exists in Winnipeg on Sunday morning. Lows between -1°C and -3°C are expected. This will be the city's best chance for frost so far this season and this could end the growing season inside the city. As for the afternoon, it looks fairly pleasant. We should see a mix of sun and cloud with highs reaching 14 to 15°C.

     Early indications point at a mild week next week. If these indications are correct, we may see another day or two of temperatures near 20°C. Hopefully this trend continues!


  1. Will be interesting to see what the low will be tomorrow morning in Winnipeg. Under fairly clear skies and light winds, I think we got a good chance at our first frost of the season inside the city.

    Question is just how cold will it get. NAM actually only drops us down to 1°C tonight... However, from what I've seen in Saskatchewan the last couple nights, that weather model has seriously over-estimated overnight lows by 3-8 degrees. For example, it forecasted a low of 1°C in Regina this morning but it got down to -6°C. As that air mass moves over southern Manitoba tonight, will be interesting to see if the NAM performs just as bad.

    As for this morning, there's been some very chilly lows in western Manitoba and the Interlake where there have been clearer skies:
    Wasagaming -7.3°C
    Dauphin -6°C
    Swan River -4.5°C
    Brandon -3.6°C
    Fisher Branch -2.7°C
    Melita -2.6°C

  2. JJ,
    what's your take on the rest of fall?

    1. I honestly have no idea what November will bring. It's just too far away for me to give you an answer that I would feel confident about.

      What I can say is that the next couple weeks do look to remain at least near normal with periods of above normal temperatures. Next week actually looks very nice with highs in the mid to high teens for most of the week with a cool down possible by the weekend. No major cold outbreaks forecast for the next couple weeks.

  3. Well I'm glad I stuck with a more fierce prediction for cold this morning than most forecasts. Low of -3.7°C at the airport overnight, which I'll say my predicted low of -3°C was quite accurate. It also did in fact end up being the first freeze of the season in much of the city, in exception for the downtown area which escaped yet another frost, and also a couple corners of the city. Here's some lows from inside the city:

    East St Paul (inside Perimeter) -1.5°C
    St Vital -1.3°C
    Charleswood -0.9°C
    South St Vital -0.8°C
    Island Lakes -0.1°C
    Southdale 0.3°C
    u of w (downtown) 0.6°C
    The Forks 2.6°C

    Not a serious freeze by any means, but the first of the season.

    Unfortunately I did not get a measurement from my place because for some strange reason my station shut down last night... got it fixed this morning however.

    1. Yeah, it's a good thing I covered up the garden

  4. JJ, I noticed that models indicate some rain friday-saturday. The most is the GEM with 50 MM. What are thinking the track of the system will be?

    1. Models bring in another Colorado Low which will have to be watched. So far GEM, GFS and ECMWF bring the system right into southern or southeastern Manitoba, which would be good news for the RRV as it would keep much, if not all of the precip as rain as we remain in the warmer sector of the system.

      However, it's way too early to say this track is exactly what will happen.

  5. Might be the last golfing day of year.

  6. Yeah definately looks like a colorado low will affect us at the end of the week. Models seem in agreement right now with this with significant rainfall amounts forecasted particularly the GEM which is giving us 50 MM or so for Friday-Saturday. Still a few days away so we will see if models continue on the same track with this one through the coming week.

  7. Wow actually got all the way to 19.4°C at the airport today with even some 20°C readings inside the city! Much warmer air moved in than expected.

  8. Most model's including GEM have us on the south eastern side of the Colorado Low with about 5-15 MM of rain in place. Look's like area's north-west of the 'peg will get the most rain; not a guarantee though. Time will only tel.

    This show's how much model's change.

    1. Look's like it, hopefully not though.

    2. Depending on how far north and west the system goes, there may even be a slight risk of a few rumbles of thunder as we tap into some instability and higher moisture from the south. Storms in October certainly have occurred in the past.

  9. Almost forgot this next weekend is a long weekend! Big storms like to hit on long weekends!