Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Very Mild The Next Few Days; Next System Late Week

     Very pleasant fall conditions will be continuing for the next few days as temperatures rise to near 20°C. A high near 21 to 22°C is expected in Winnipeg today under just some high cloud at times. Winds will be fairly light.

     Tomorrow looks very similar to today except a degree or two cooler with a high of 19 to 20°C under a mix of sun and cloud.

     Then things get interesting as a Colorado Low rides the jet stream which just so happens to be moving from south to north. This will bring the low right into southern Manitoba on Friday. However, showers are possible ahead of the system on Thursday. The bulk of the rain moves into western parts of southern Manitoba Thursday night. Showers will again be possible in Winnipeg on Friday. Due to how far north and west this system is expected to track, some thunderstorms will even be possible across southern Manitoba Thursday night and Friday as we tap in some instability and higher moisture from the south. Yes, I'm not kidding.

     The bulk of the rains with the system are expected to be west of Winnipeg with amounts of 25 + mm possible along the Saskatchewan border. Lower amounts in the RRV are expected. Seasonal to below normal temperatures will return behind the low.

33 comments:

  1. I have finally been able to update the weather history and current weather news sections on the right side of my blog...

    As for Friday, thunderstorms actually still look possible. Could be an interesting day.

    ReplyDelete
  2. JJ,
    will be updating the thunder cast for friday?


    Thank-you,
    Walter

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Was going to wait until tomorrow in case things changed.

      Delete
    2. Good idea, the weather forecast is always changing.

      Delete
    3. Sorry About the spelling mistakes.

      Delete
  3. Shockingly, the SPC south of the border has actually issued a slight risk of severe storms up into southeastern Manitoba for tomorrow. To me this seems a little too extreme for this time of year especially given the relatively low instability values. However, it is true that hail will be possible with any storms that form. I wont be going as extreme with my thundercast for now.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Unfortunately my computer's being a pest this morning and not letting me post anything and I can't update the weather news section.... Here's a link to the Winnipeg forecast:

    http://puu.sh/4Mp5L.jpg

    As for the thundercast, will try to get it up later this morning or this afternoon if my computer let's me post by then!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I say's the PUU.sh can not be found

      Delete
    2. You can view the forecasts on my blog now as I got the chance to post them this afternoon.

      Delete
    3. That was much simpler, thank's!

      Delete
  5. Thunderstorm potential remains tomorrow afternoon and evening for the Winnipeg area and much of southern Manitoba as a whole as that Colorado Low moves in. For October, this type of a widespread thunderstorm event is rare... Will be interesting to see if things pan out as expected.

    However, I'm skeptical of a widespread severe weather event, despite a slight risk being issued by the SPC for areas along the US border. A big reason is cloud cover and only very marginal instability. And honestly, a widespread severe event in Manitoba in October, especially mid October, is practically unheard of even, at least as far as I know.

    Nonetheless, I would not be surprised to see some small hail, perhaps even some close-to-severe sized hail at times. Torrential downpours and frequent lightning will be the main threats.

    Best risk for Winnipeg will be in the evening hours.

    We'll likely see some shower activity to start Saturday, ending sometime midday. It will quite blustery with gusts to 60 km/h at times, perhaps even 70 km/h. Temperatures will barely reach 10°C.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As usual we probably won't get anything. It's been like that for the whole year and and it problably won't change.

      Delete
    2. Wouldn't be surprised if Winnipeg missed out again because it's Winnipeg.. but I'd be surprised if there was no storm activity at all in southern Manitoba tomorrow.

      Delete
  6. Click on my name and it will link you to the warning's

    ReplyDelete
  7. Note: Forecasts wont be updated Sunday and Monday

    ReplyDelete
  8. I'd enjoy today's warmth as much as you can. Unfortunately, long range models are switching colder and colder right now. Today may be the one of the last warm days of the year.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Already getting thunderstorm activity in southwestern & south-central Manitoba this morning. Still looking favourable for storms again later today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Long line of trailing thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba so far today.. generally west of Brandon so far. This line extends all the way to Minnesota and will push into the RRV and southeast Manitoba later today. Radar estimates point a line of 30-40 mm accumulations so far today associated with these storms. Unfortunately I do not have any actual rainfall totals because the Manitoba Agriculture website is not working for me right now. Will post amounts later if I can get access.

      Delete
  10. Super windy in River heights.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Some rain coming in from the southeast, Eastern half of the city will get most of it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Raining now in River heights.

      Delete
  12. After a full day of thunderstorm activity, now that things get closer to the RRV and southeastern Manitoba, we're seeing more just showers instead of storms. There is still a chance of the odd storm here in Winnipeg tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  13. airport observed thunderstorm's at 8:00, we DID actually get something.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow didn't even see that! Didn't hear any thunder at all in the south end.

      Delete
    2. I heard a few rumbles in Westwood with a brief downpour at about 8:00. nothing to right home about though.

      Delete
  14. Click on my name for a link to the observations.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you prefer here is a table of the data.
      20:00 Thunderstorm with light rainshowers 18 59 10 SE 27 gust 44 99.7 24

      Delete
  15. Starting to rain in Westwood.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Some impressive rainfall amounts in southwestern Manitoba today, partly thanks to trailing thunderstorm activity in some areas:

    Hamiota 59.1 mm
    Virden 46.7 mm
    Russel 44.6 mm
    Minnedosa 44.4 mm
    Boissevain 41.2 mm
    Forrest 36.6 mm (just north of Brandon)
    Gladstone 30.9 mm

    These amounts are courtesy of Manitoba Agriculture and are amounts up to 10 pm this evening.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These amounts are impressive for this time of year and these 1-day totals surpass the full monthly October normal rainfall in many areas. Most parts of southern Manitoba average about 20 to 40 mm of rainfall in a full October. Winnipeg averages 33 mm

      Delete
  17. I think I'll go to bed, I love going to bed listening to the sound of rain.

    ReplyDelete
  18. A post detailing rainfall amounts throughout southern Manitoba with this system will be posted in the next hour.

    ReplyDelete