Wednesday, 13 November 2013

Fabulous November Day

     A very mild air mass moved into southern Manitoba today, and that along with abundant sunshine and no snow on the ground allowed for temperatures to reach the double digits... perhaps for the last time this year! In addition, a strong westerly wind provided for a bit of a downslope effect for the western RRV.

     Here are some highs achieved today:



Community
High on Nov 13, 2013
Melita
13.6°C
Morden
12.9°C
Portage la Prairie
12.3°C
Carman
11.9°C
Pilot Mound
11.5°C
Winnipeg Charleswood
10.9°C
Winnipeg airport
10.3°C
Brandon
10.3°C

     These temperatures were not record breaking. Record highs are still in the mid to high teens. Winnipeg's old record today was 17.4°C back in 2007.

     Temperatures will cool significantly tomorrow with highs only around 0 or 1°C. A weak disturbance will also offer a chance for some light snow at times, however major accumulations are not expected.

     Warm temperatures return on Friday as we get back into a strong southerly flow. Highs in the mid to high single digits are expected.

     More light snow is possible at times on Saturday and Sunday, however at this time major accumulations are not anticipated, unless system track changes. Much cooler weather returns on Sunday.

40 comments:

  1. NAM has brought the snowfall further west for Saturday night into Sunday in its run this morning giving 7 cm in Winnipeg. Other models are much less agressive, so there's still lots of uncertainty.

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    1. Now it has an amazing 17 CM! Definitely will be interesting if they still suggest this on saturday.

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    2. Will be interesting indeed. NAM bringing a swath of snow right into the RRV. GEM, GFS and ECMWF currently keep it to our east, mainly in Ontario. Crossing my fingers the outlier loses!

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  2. Enjoy today's warmth while you can! Who knows, it may be your last chance until Spring!

    I'm expecting highs in the high single digits today, likely between 7 and 9°C, with abundant sunshine. However, there will be a stiff south breeze.

    Things are quite uncertain for Saturday night and Sunday. NAM is just going bullish with 10-20 cm of snowfall. It is the only model I can find that is showing this. Most bring less than 5 cm. Will be keeping an eye on the situation.

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    1. What would you says is the most possible? 5-10 CM?

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    2. I'm leaning towards a miss with most likely a few cm.

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    3. Sounds great, I'm not ready for snow at all :).

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  3. Incredible! A moderate risk of severe thunderstorms has been issued up to southwestern Ontario for tomorrow by the SPC south of the border. It's November! They mention the potential for a significant damaging wind event.

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    1. JJ, That is actually the after affect of typhoon haiyon! Do you think there will be records broken?

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    2. I'm not sure what the records are for thunderstorms out over there this time of year. Thunderstorms aren't that unusual this time of year there, but severe thunderstorms are quite rare.

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  4. JJ, is your thinking still the same regarding tomorrow's system being a miss for us here in Winnipeg and the RRV?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Looks quite probable the worst will remain in northwestern Ontario. I'd still expect some flurries/light snow tonight and tomorrow around here with a few cm possible. Southeastern Manitoba (Sprague, Steinbach, Whiteshell) may get clipped with 5 cm however.

      Another clipper system is set to track into Manitoba next Tuesday. Thankfully, this one so far is looking like yet another miss for the RRV with the bulk of the snow moving into central Manitoba where 5-15 cm will be possible.

      Gladly we're not in Alberta where blizzard conditions are being seen today and very cold temperatures to follow for the next several days. Edmonton may potentially not escape the minus double digits until late next week.

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    2. May even see some light snow later today if that band to our west sticks together.

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  5. JJ, it looks like a warmup later next week will not materialize as the colder weather is expected to stick around, is that correct?

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    1. Yes, that warmup I mentioned a couple weeks ago ended up being quite short-lived. Looks like we'll be back into the cold starting tomorrow. The next couple weeks look generally cold but with brief reprieves here and there.

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  6. Luckily we have remained quite mild for this event. Not much accumulation here in Winnipeg at all, at least in the south end here. To our southeast, that 5 cm I had said earlier has now turned into more of a rain event tonight.

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  7. We'll continue to see periods of light snow through the night into tomorrow. May see 1-3 cm, maybe a little more if we get unlucky.

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  8. Uh oh, I was afraid this would happen...

    About 5 cm here in south St Vital so far as of 8:30 am! =(

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    1. Looks like winter has begun. If this snow doesn't melt with a brief warmup on Tuesday, looks like winter temperatures will finally arrive.

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    2. Damn it all.

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  9. JJ, do you know manitoba agriculture website? Whenever I google it the only things that come up are info on crops and agriculture related jobs.
    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Yes, here:
      http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/weather/weather-conditions-and-reports.html

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  10. The says its going to be -273 on wenesday!

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  11. The NAM says its going to be -273 wednesday! Spotwx must be having some technologic problems.

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    1. Any particular citys?

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    2. You deleted it.

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  12. Up to 6 cm or so now in south St Vital

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  13. So much for a miss here. It's been snowing for nearly 24 hours now since last night and still going. We may even finish with another cm or two if this keeps up.

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    1. Well now we know that when one model has a crazy theory theres actually a good chance of it being right!

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    2. Quite often, that does seem to be true Frank!

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    3. And technically we did see a miss. Generally 15-25 cm in northwestern Ontario

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  14. I'm calling it a total of 7 unwelcomed cm here in south St Vital for the event. Snow depth 7 cm, max drift depth in my yard 16 cm.

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  15. JJ, isn't that unusual to be caught into a colder than normal weather pattern like the one we are going to be into over the next couple of weeks with a strong +AO?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. It does go a bit against the idea of a positive AO. However, the correlation between warm weather here and a strongly positive AO is not 100%. Sometimes, a strongly positive AO does not do its usual here. I'm afraid, that's about as far as I know about the AO right now. There are other factors other than the AO that play into our weather.

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    2. Also of note the AO is expected to trend more negative soon... the extent is hard to say.

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  16. Enjoy the warmer weather today because it wont last longer than today. Temperatures will remain steady near -7 or -8°C tomorrow.

    Our next chance for snow will also be tomorrow, likely in the evening. Depending on system track, 1-3 cm will be possible.

    Very cold on Thursday, potentially not exceeding -10°C. However, it wont drop much Thursday night thanks to a southerly flow ahead of another clipper system for Friday. A couple more cm of snow is possible late on Friday depending on track. Looks like a fast mover, so I wouldn't expect large accumulations.

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  17. Churchill's forecast from EC:

    Tonight, 19 November
    Becoming cloudy this evening then snow. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Blowing snow with visibilities frequently less than 1 kilometre overnight. Wind becoming northeast 20 km/h early this evening then increasing to 40 gusting to 60 near midnight. Temperature rising to minus 9 by morning.
    Wednesday, 20 November
    Periods of light snow ending in the afternoon then cloudy. Amount 2 cm. Blowing snow with visibilities frequently less than 1 kilometre. Wind northeast 40 km/h gusting to 70 becoming northwest 40 gusting to 60 in the afternoon. Temperature falling to minus 21 in the afternoon. Wind chill minus 34 in the afternoon.

    I have never seen such a detailed forecast from EC

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  18. Crazy cold in Alberta this morning. All the way down to -31.3°C in Edmonton and -33.3°C in Grande Prairie.

    Shockingly, Edmonton's low is not even close to a record low. The old record is actually -36.1°C back in just 2011!

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  19. Sadly it looks like another accumulative snowfall event tonight. I'm anticipating 2-5 cm in Winnipeg right now. More like 5-10 cm closer to the US border.

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    1. Well at least its better then alberta and saskatchewan. They got dumped with 2 feet of snow in some areas in the beginning of november and like you've mentioned many cites in alberta and saskatchewan have gone below -30 already!

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