Tuesday, 26 November 2013

More Snow

     An Alberta Clipper will bring more snow to our area tomorrow. At this point, it looks like it will snow for the majority of the day. Winnipeg should see about 2-5 cm. That will be the general amount across southern Manitoba, however some locally higher amounts are possible.

     Strong south winds will accompany the snow, making for reduced visibility under blowing and drifting snow, especially on highways.

     Below normal temperatures are expected to continue for the remainder of the week. Another clipper system is expected on Friday, which could bring some more snow.

     Unfortunately, the cold weather is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with no real (major and prolonged) warmups anticipated. In fact, early indications point at a reinforced shot of arctic air sometime in early December.

42 comments:

  1. JJ, looks like another system will bring snow to to us in the Sunday night to Tuesday timeframe with the big cooldown to follow.

    Does that look like a significant snowfall early next week or just another weak clipper with a few cm's at best?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Certainly will have to watch for a strong clipper system early next week, likely around Monday-Tuesday. High accumulations of 10 + cm are possible with the system, but it is tough to say this far out if Winnipeg will get into these high accumulations.
      A reinforced shot of arctic air behind the system will send our temperatures back to mid-winter-like values.

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  2. The way things are looking right now i'd say we may get 5+ CM. Already have picked close to 4 CM in my area.

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  3. Well, so much for that famous 2-5 CM prediction. That's 3rd time now the forecast calls for 2-5 CM snow and all 3 times we receive over 5 CM. I've received at least 7 CM here at my place in Windsor Park. And perhaps more but it's hard to say due to the blowing and drifting.

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    1. No kidding,
      will get a measurement from my place later today

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  4. I'm calling it a total of 7.5 cm at my place in south St Vital. We got some pretty strong bands of snow develop on the back edge of the system which gave us some impressive snowfall rates this morning. Most of that 7.5 cm fell in just a couple hours. That's a factor in what cause my forecast to bust, I wasn't expecting such high snowfall rates.

    Will get a water equivalent soon.

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  5. More snow is moving in and we will likely see on and off snow through the remainder of the day. Perhaps another few cm.

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  6. Measured a total of 6.9 mm water equivalent to the snowfall today. I have also adjusted my snowfall total after revising a bit, to 7.8 cm. Measurements not perfect today due to the strong winds.

    Anybody else with measurements today feel free to share.

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  7. Under the NAM's update this afternoon, another 2-5 cm would be possible on Friday. Will have to see if this trend continues... GEM keeps the snow mainly to our north.

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  8. Additional just over 2 cm so far, bringing my total so far to 10 cm. This evening snow however is extremely fluffy, so I suspect the water equivalent will be quite low. Definitely a bigger storm than expected.. again.

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  9. Total snowfall from today and this evening at my place here in Windsork Park is 12 CM. Yeah definately alot more than expected but that seems to be trend of late with these clippers doesn't it.

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  10. This winter is turning more and more into last winter.. snow almost everyday!

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  11. Yeah, that's kinda scary. JJ, what's the latest as far as Monday's clipper storm is concerned? Is a 10+ CM snowfall still possible for us in Winnipeg/RRV?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Models are disagreeing at this time. GFS brings the bulk of the snow into the Interlake while GEM keeps it south of the border. ECMWF has just flipped flopped in the last couple runs. 10+ cm is definitely a possibility with this system, question is just where.

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  12. My goodness, how's the traffic looking in other parts of the city? St Vital has been a real bottleneck today; worst I've seen.

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  13. Well, models have really hyped up the storm next week in the latest runs, advertising a full-fledged blizzard. Clearly will be something to keep a very close eye on.

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  14. Walter, I found another link to the ECMWF if you're still searching:
    http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf.php?inv=0&plot=4p&region=a&expanddiv=hide_bar

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  15. Can't remember the last time there's been such confidence for below normal temperatures in the long range models. CPC giving 70%+ probabilities and NAEFS 90+% probabilities in 1-2 weeks from now.

    CPC: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php
    NAEFS: http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html

    Not sure if confidence was even this high with the models back last spring (can't remember if they were or not). Definitely a brutal wake up call on our way.

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  16. Models still very persistent in showing a potential significant winter storm (perhaps a full fledged blizzard) over Southern MB early next week with potential of more than a foot of snow. Something to keep a close eye on.

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  17. Let's just compare (briefly and simply) what some models are showing this morning, because it's difficult to pick and choose when there's such a large variety of scenarios predicted:

    1-NAM weather model brings in impressive snow bands on Tuesday with 10-15 cm in just 6 hours (rates of 2 cm/hr or so). Under its scenario there may be a very brief period of ice pellets in the morning (not a major threat however). It brings more of a Wyoming or Montana Low type of scenario into southern Manitoba, bringing the centre right through southern Manitoba... with the potential for yet more snow on the backside later in the week.

    2-GFS has trended southwards with the Alberta Clipper, moving it into South Dakota and Minnesota. Bulk of the snow in southern Manitoba moves generally along the US border on Tuesday/early Wednesday. Low accumulations in Winnipeg.

    3-GEM Global is complicated, bringing a few waves of snowfall between Monday and Thursday with 10+ cm for most of southern Manitoba.

    4-ECMWF maintaining the idea of a potent Colorado Low mid week (Wednesday-Thursday) with significant snowfall accumulations 15+ cm.

    Lots of scenarios!

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  18. One thing that very interesting is that usually most reliable model in the Euro is very consistent on bringing a major snow and blizzard event.

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    1. It's nice to finally have some interesting weather to talk about!

      Agreed, very interesting that ECMWF has remained fairly consistent in the last few runs as opposed to other models.

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  19. I see latest NAM run is trending towards the Euro solution somewhat. It will interesting to see if GFS and GEM begin to trend towards Euro as well in the next couple of runs or so. Either way, we will see snow next week and big time cold after that.

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  20. Just by the way, November summary might be a little late this time. Just haven't had the opportunity to work on it yet.

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  21. Still very uncertain what is going to happen this week. Consensus is becoming that the bulk will miss us and stay mostly south of the border and into Ontario. But there is still the NAM which is giving significant accumulations to southern Manitoba.

    For now, I'm calling it periods of light snow for tomorrow with a couple cm possible by midnight. Tuesday I think it's likely we'll continue to see some snow, but I'm not ready to call for amounts just yet because there is just too much uncertainty right now.

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  22. Yeah, just like the last few clippers which were also supposed to mainly miss us with only 2-4cm and we all know how that turned out. So not much faith should be given at this point in the models until we actually see how it all evolves over the next few days. Way too much flip flopping within the models to actually paint a clear picture on this.

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    1. Good point... the last few weeks have been full with surprises already.

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    2. Totally agree with Anon. The NAM model now shows a foot of snow for us, while most of the other models show 5-10 CM. Considering whats happened with last few clippers the NAM's solution is still a good possibility. And also the NAM was the model (the only one) that showed the 5-15 CM CM for us when we got our first snowfall this year. And in the end we got 5-10 CM's.

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  23. JJ, are we expected to see any snow here in Winnipeg regardless of the amount?

    Thanks, Anon

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  24. That being snow for tomorrow?

    Thanks, Anon

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  25. JJ, could you put a snow poll up?

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    1. Thanks for the reminder; poll is up!

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    2. Thank's, I voted 10-15 CM.

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  26. Well, 18Z GFS has trended with NAM giving us an all out blizzard Tues-Wed.

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  27. GFS now giving us 20CM while NAM still sticking to it's guns in pummeling us with 40CM but GEM and Euro still not biting right now. Either way tonight's 00Z runs should paint a clear picture hopefully.

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  28. 00Z NAM still very agressive with giving us a classic blizzard scenario. It would also appear that the storm could very well track further north than what other models were indicating earlier today and that could be very bad news for us if that's the case. We'll see what the other model runs from tonight show.

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  29. NAM and GFS taking a more southern track now. However, NAM still gives Winnipeg 15-20 cm.

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  30. I see NAM has backed off significantly....now only giving us 5-10 CM which is pretty much in line with all the other models so it's becoming more evident that this won't be much of a storm for us unless we get surprised once again.

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    1. Talk about déja vu all over again. Surprising how many near misses we experience in the RRV.

      Well I guess there's still that chance things can shift further north again... considering how flip floppy models have been. Not holding my breath though.

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  31. Next weekend will be damn