Thursday, 20 February 2014

An Extended Period of Mid-Winter-Like Cold Begins

     Luckily, we escaped the worst with this latest system in Winnipeg with just 2.6 cm of snowfall overnight here in the south end. Heavier totals fell all around the city as snow bands danced around us last night. As much as 16 cm has fallen in Arborg to our north for example, according to robsobs. Snow is still falling in the area this morning. Additionally, we should see some light snow in Winnipeg at times this morning, but with only small accumulations if any at all.

     We'll be missing out on quite a Colorado Low moving into Ontario over the next couple days. As much as 30 cm may fall in parts of northwestern Ontario. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are likely in southern Ontario today.

     We will see windy conditions over the next few days thanks to this Colorado Low. Northwest winds of 30 to 40 km/h will be consistent today through the weekend. As a result, an extended period of drifting and blowing snow on highways is expected. These winds will continue to usher in colder and colder temperatures over the next few days.

     Unfortunately, there is no end in sight to the cold weather. The end of February and the beginning of March are looking January-like with more opportunities for -30's likely.
90-100% chance of below normal temperature trends in our area for the first week of March


  1. Thanks for voting in the snow poll! Average answer was about 11 cm. Congrats to the sole respondent answering 2-4 cm!

  2. Not much to add in today's update. Windy out of the northwest for the next 3 days, with no relief from the wind until Monday.

    Next week looking really cold, with temperatures perhaps at least 15 degrees below normal on some days.

  3. JJ, There seems to be some rumblings that winter may loosen it's icy grip 2nd week of March, what are your thoughts on that on whether it will happen or not?

    Thanks, Anon

    1. Some models do indicate some warming around that time, but that's so far away it's hard to put much faith in that right now. The next 2 weeks look frigid and beyond that it's just too uncertain.

      All I can say right now is that it will take a miracle to get an early Spring this year so I wouldn't get too hopeful just yet. Although we may see some warmer temperatures come March, it's going to take a while to melt all this snow and actually see the end of winter.

      History shows that a late spring will occur after the type of winter we've had. This winter is on track to be among the top 15 coldest since 1872 and top 5 coldest since 1900.

      Of the 6 coldest winters since 1900, only 2 were followed by a warmer than normal March for the respective period. Also, of the 20 coldest winters since 1872, 11 were followed by a top 20 coldest March. Of those 20 winters, not a single March was among the top 50th warmest Marches, and not a single March was warmer than today's normal March mean of -5.8°C.

  4. hey jj, looks like horrible storm for ontario last night and today. Even had thunderstorms reportedd in toronto last night. If had gotten hit by it we may well have had the deepest ever. do no if there are records that exist for deepest snowpack?

    1. Snow depth today is about 50 cm in Winnipeg officially (at Charleswood station at Rob's). This is the 6th deepest snowdepth on February 21 since 1955.

      7 deepest snow depths on February 21 since 1955:

      1. 88 cm (1956)
      2. 64 cm (1962)
      3. 59 cm (1955)
      4. 53 cm (1966)
      5. 52 cm (1997)
      6. ~50 cm (2014) (to be confirmed)
      7. 48 cm (1959)

    2. And yeah, been lots of thunderstorms in southern Ontario lately! London has already racked up 3 thunderstorm days in the past week.

    3. That Colorado low was very close to replicating 1966 which took on those characteristics 160 kms west of yesterdays. Didnt touch Portage La prairie while burying Eastern ND & SD & Winnipeg under 40 cms and 20 foot drifts.

  5. Not much more to add again. Windy today and tomorrow with blowing and drifting in open areas. Occasional light snow will occur today and tomorrow with very little accumulation. Winds don't weaken until Monday when winds will be around 'only' 20 km/h.

    An extra push of cold arctic air moves in Tuesday when highs will likely struggle to reach -20°C. And then there's another extra push of even colder air possible by Thursday-Friday.