Saturday, 8 February 2014

Snow Chances Returning Soon

     Cloudier skies than expected helped keep us warmer this morning thankfully. A mix of sun and cloud is expected today.

     It may be a different story tonight with lows in the -30's likely... assuming there's no unexpected cloud cover. Tomorrow and Monday will be frigid with highs around -20°C. Breezy conditions with winds near 20 km/h tomorrow will make for some nasty wind chills.

     After a nice break from the snowfall, chances for accumulative snow return by Tuesday with a weak clipper system. Not much is expected. A more active period with a few weak clipper systems is expected for the remainder of the week into the weekend. It's too early at this point to pinpoint exact location of heaviest snowfall amounts and timing.


  1. Well, Wednesday's clipper is one to watch however as it appears like we may see more than 5 CM, in fact the Euro model brings us at least 10 CM while others are more conservative with 5CM but do hint somewhat at some heavy snow somewhere in Southern Manitoba.

    1. Yeah, Euro is further north than the other models. Can't be discounted I suppose.

  2. A frigid one today likely not exceeding -20°C. Finally (and unfortunately) cloud cover didn't bust my forecast low. Tonight looks like another frigid one with -30's likely.

    Rising temperatures tomorrow night ahead of Tuesday's clipper, which will be the first of many for the next week. 2-4 cm not out of the question on Tuesday. Note that strong south winds are expected which will create blowing snow in open areas. Not a good day for highway travel. Temperatures wont rise much in the day until winds switch to more of a westerly component just before the cold front passes in the evening. Minus single digits possible but only briefly with plummeting temperatures behind the cold front. Wether or not we reach that high will depend on how north the system tracks.

    Wednesday-Thursday's clipper looking interesting, but track is still in question. ECMWF (european) still the furthest north with track, but GFS has pushed things northward now as well. GEM has actually pushed further south a tad with the main system. GEM is a bit of an anomaly right now because it actually brings in 2 clipper systems while the other 2 models do not. Nonetheless, blizzard conditions will be possible with this system in the RRV with the best chance the closer to North Dakota you get. Will keep an eye on this one.

  3. And it's looking likely that a nice and much deserved warmup will occur a few days after that clipper with temps climbing towards and possibly above the freezing mark around the 17th or so. Will that last, likely not but we'll take it as it comes.

  4. New poll created for Wednesday-Thursday's clipper system.
    NAM and ECMWF are the furthest north with the system at this time with 5-15 cm in the Winnipeg area.

  5. Consensus has become to be a more northerly track for late Wednesday into Thursday's clipper system with most models giving at least 5 cm in Winnipeg. NAM is the most extreme right now with as much as 15 cm. NAM's scenario is also interesting in that it's scenario would support a blizzard on Thursday with sustained winds over 40 km/h, strongest the closer to the North Dakota border you get. Nonetheless, blowing snow and a decent snowfall are looking more and more likely... and if things align correctly perhaps even a blizzard.

    As for tomorrow's snowfall, it is looking quite brief at this time, perhaps only lasting half the day. 1-3 cm expected. The story will be the strong southerly winds, perhaps sustained as high as 50 km/h at times, tomorrow morning and afternoon, before switching to northwest late in the afternoon.

  6. Certainly not a nice morning out there with that -20°C and 40-50 km/h winds. Snow will begin late this morning as expected and we should see a quick 1-3 cm by afternoon.. Will be a brief system. Winds will taper off this afternoon and switch to westerly, reducing/eliminating the blowing snow, and allowing our temperatures to rise. Will have my latest thoughts about tomorrow night's system shortly.

  7. At this time, looks like best chance for heaviest snow will be south of the Trans-Canada tomorrow night. A good 5-10 cm is likely there. In Winnipeg, personally I'm calling for 4-8 cm right now. Winds look less of a concern than previously thought therefore I do not think blizzard conditions will occur at this time. There will be a lot of drifting and perhaps some blowing snow on highways tomorrow night given winds near 30 km/h, but that wouldn't be enough for a blizzard. Northerly winds behind the low on Thursday may give up some blowing and drifting in the southern RRV, but at this point it doesn't look blizzard-like.
    Thanks to everyone for participating in the poll too!

  8. Quite the storm expected for the southeastern US in the next few days. NWS in Georgia already expecting it to be an historical situation with as much as 25 mm of freezing rain possible in some areas along with 15 + cm in the northern part of the state.

    As for our weather, not a whole lot has changed from my expectations for tomorrow night. I'm calling for 5-10 cm in Winnipeg for now. Heaviest amounts most likely to occur in southwestern Manitoba and along and south of the Trans-Canada elsewhere. There may also be some slight enhancement along the escarpment and Riding Mountain due to an easterly wind.

  9. Very tough to determine snow amounts today with that wind, but looks like a good 2-3 cm at my place. Peak wind gust at the airport was 37 knots or about 69 km/h.

  10. Nothing much has changed with my forecast, except some amounts have been risen. Heaviest snowfall looks to be in southwestern Manitoba and along the escarpment and Riding Mountain where 10-15 cm is expected tonight. Areas south of the Trans-Canada in the RRV could also see up to 10 cm. 5-10 cm expected in Winnipeg.

    Easterly winds of 20-40 km/h overnight will create some drifting and blowing snow on highways, so keep that in mind if anyone has to travel on highways.

  11. Latest model trends suggest Winnipeg will receive 10 cm+ now tonight thus E.C. is likely to expand snowfall warnings with afternoon forecast update.