At 7°C colder than normal, this past March was almost as extreme as March Madness 2012's 8°C warmer than normal. What a difference 2 years can make... This past March was also the coldest since 1996.
1898-1899 for 11th coldest, making it the coldest December to March period in 115 years. One must go back 121 years to the winter of 1892-1893 to find a December to March period that has been colder than this one...
In total, from December to March, there were 90 days below -20°C, tying for 6th most and the most in 121 years (see the following table for the top 7)! Normal is 51 days (1981-2010 normal).
Table: Top 7 most -20°C days from December to March, since 1872
# of days ≤ -20°C Dec to Mar
1875/1876 & 2013/2014
If we include November into the equation (to be more representative of an entire winter), this November to March period averaged -15.9°C, 13th coldest and coldest since the winter of 1978-1979.
Snowdepth in Winnipeg sat at 43 cm yesterday, the 4th deepest snow pack to finish March since 1941. Tragically, normal is just a measly 5 cm (1981-2010 normal). Interestingly, this is the second consecutive March without any rain. Prior to this, the last time no rain fell in March was 1956!
This past March also featured the 2nd coldest March day on record on March 1 with a mean temperature of -31.5°C. The low of -37.0°C was just shy of the all-time March low of -38.9°C in 1873 and 1880 and 9th coldest low in March since 1872. The high of -26.0°C obliterated the old record low maximum for the day of -22.2°C in 1972, and was the 2nd coldest daytime high in March since 1872.
Here's hoping for some above normal temperatures soon!
Really, there's been no such thing as a ''normal'' March lately. Since 2010, we've been bouncing around from extreme warmth to extreme cold in March.ReplyDelete
Average March mean temperature anomalies:
2014: 6.9°C below normal
2013: 5.1°C below normal
2012: 8.0°C above normal
2011: 2.7°C below normal
2010: 5.5°C above normal
It may not be 11C on Sunday but at least it will feel like something other than winter for a change. Either way it appears the melting will finally begin at the of the week. Also nice to see something other than winter in the long range.ReplyDelete
Great summary Julien. Sure hope these past 2 winters/springs won't be repeated for a very long time. Statistically, they shouldn't.. let's hope they don't!ReplyDelete
Thanks Rob; one can only hope we don't see a winter like this again for a while!Delete
JJ, is this it in terms of these extreme cold temperatures?ReplyDelete
I really hope so.
I'm not ready to call the well below normal weather over yet. However, I know this sounds like a broken record, but there is a lot of uncertainty with the remainder of April. The GFS model for instance has been flip flopping every single run in the last week from a big warmup to a cold pattern continuing. This greater than normal uncertainty happens quite frequently at the end of winter.Delete
NAEFS has increased to ~80% chances of a below normal temperature trend in 2 weeks from now, which could still change in the next few days, but overall it doesn't look like we're in for a prolonged bout of above normal temperatures anytime soon. But yes, even though the normal are over 5°C now, I'll take anything above zero at this point!
Certainly the warmup for later this week into next week is not a huge warmup by any means but at least we'll finally see a return to normal or slightly above normal temps in which we haven't had for the past 5 months. it will be definately enough to get the snow melting.ReplyDelete
Yeah and it really helps that we missed that storm yesterday. Getting hit by that storm with the snow pack that we already have could've meant the snow would have disappeared much later this spring.Delete
A summary of yesterday's storm south of the border here:ReplyDelete
Looks like a general 30-50 cm over northwestern Minnesota into northeastern North Dakota. In northwestern Ontario, 55 cm has been recorded in Sioux Lookout. In some parts of northwestern Ontario, snow depths have exceeded 1 metre according to Environment Canada.
JJ, do you think that forecast of 9C for Sunday is still too optimistic?ReplyDelete
So far, 9°C seems a little optimistic, especially for the airport. Something more in the mid single digits seems more reasonable.Delete
Will the traditional warm Southern Breezes and S weather Still travel over that snowpack. Seems like the only place that escaped another meter of snow is north of us. According to CBC news Lake Superior is still 90 % frozen And no traffic has made it out of the lake. Does that make all breezes chilly?ReplyDelete
Great summary Jj Thanks for all the effort you put in. I hear there was some Thunder snow with the storm. Does that mean Thundercast will be back before April 27?ReplyDelete
I wont bother so long as there is no significant chance for storms... Certainly don't see any anytime soon!Delete
Low of -20.2°C this morning.. Only the 13th occurrence of -20°C in April in the last 50 years. Hopefully the last -20°C of the year!ReplyDelete
Perfectly sunny day today but a different story tomorrow. Cloudy skies with chance of some light snow at times tomorrow, not expecting significant accumulations. EC's 4°C for Sunday seems more reasonable now. Beware of those day5 and day6 forecasts as they seem to be too warm more often than not.ReplyDelete
Why, I've often wondered, does the EC discrepancy always err on the side of too warm? Is it simply because it skews toward the normal, or I should say "normal" spring temperature values? If that's all it is, how could they not have learned by now that this mirage effect of chasing warmer temperatures breeds resentment as well as mistrust?Delete
I'm not saying they should invent cold temperatures just so we feel better when it turns out to be warmer. But they should provide some nuance in their forecasts and admit their uncertainty, just like you wonderful weather bloggers do!
The day 5 and 6 forecasts are courtesy of a different weather model than for the day 4 and earlier forecast. Using a different weather model reduces the consistency of the forecast... However, I'm not sure why the day 5 and 6 model is always too warm at this time of year as I'm not familiar with whatever model they use for it.Delete
A good map to know if you're in an area where frozen pipes are possible:ReplyDelete
I've had brown water issues at my place in the last few days as well. The city's sure got their hands full with water problems right now!
Jj I hang out with a group of guys who talk about those cold winters of the 80s & 90s and the ones that came 40 years after in the dirty 30s. Do you mind if I send them your handle? Thats the eighteen nineties. They have a lot of stories to tell. How cold was it? You dont say?ReplyDelete
Don, pardon my lack of knowledge with english expressions, but I am not sure what you are referring to by ''your handle''?Delete
In the 80s and 70s communication from truckers and later some cars was by CB radios Handle was the name you gave out over the air to others so that you could establish the source and reliability of conversations and information Go watch Smokey and the Bandit Your handle Is Jj and your channel would be your URL. Anons would be anyone you didnt know. Warnings would be about police radar accidents etc. BCDelete
Before Cell phones.
It sure looks like there will be some pretty warm air incoming on Wednesday next week. I think the snowpack will hamper just how warm it could get but it certainly looks like double digits may still be quite attainable despite the snowpack.ReplyDelete
Yeah, it's looking likely at this point it will be the warmest day so far this year. Too bad it looks to only last 1 day!Delete
Yeah, that sucks but we'll take it. The sooner the snow melts the better I say. It will be tougher to get sustained warmer air while this stuff is still on the ground.ReplyDelete
That sun just works wonders this time of year too so the snow pack should really take a hit in the next week. Down to 38 cm at my place today, about a 5 cm melt over 5 days despite cold weather.Delete
Unfortunately today's snow is looking a little more organized than I was expecting, so 2-5 cm is likely today. At least there will be very little wind and with the warmer weather coming, it wont be on the ground for very long. Some may even melt this afternoon with highs approaching 0°C.ReplyDelete
JJ, any idea of what system the snow is coming form today? Usually it's clippers that give these little snowfalls, but today it looks like the snow is moving more from the south west according to radar.ReplyDelete
Anon, it appears to be a combination of a trough in the jet stream moving in providing the lift necessary, and we've got some moisture streaming in from the south partly associated with a Colorado Low to the south. A rather weak snow scenario today with no well-defined centre of low pressure system moving through our area.Delete
Yeah, and that same Colorado Low will mark the beginning of tornado season in the southern U.S. with a major tornado outbreak expected over Missouri and Arkansas.ReplyDelete
I've picked up 2 cm today... doesn't look like we'll be getting anymore accumulation now that the snow is easing and melting.ReplyDelete
Looks like alittle more fell today. Hard to belive we had 13 hours of daylight yesterday and it went down to -20c again.How many is that from mid NovemberReplyDelete
Picked up about 3 cm total here, but that's only what actually accumulated... most did not.Delete
We're up to 94 days below -20°C since November.
Overall, some much milder days are ahead finally.ReplyDelete
As the warmer air starts moving in tonight and tomorrow, some light precipitation is possible. This will mean the potential for some brief freezing rain tomorrow morning so it could be a little messy. A nice day reaching mid single digits.
I'm a little skeptical about EC's 10°C for Sunday however, with the snow pack we've got, I don't think the airport will manage to get that high. Within city limits, high single digits are definitely possible. The perfectly sunny forecast seems a little optimistic too as we should see some cloud.
Mid week next week still looking much warmer with double digits possible on Wednesday, even at the airport (would be the first time since November) especially if we can get a good westerly wind. Unfortunately, double digit temperatures wont last too long, but at least our days with below zero daytime highs look almost over!
Know if there any "clipper systems" in the forecast for the next week or so?
Not expecting any significant snowfall accumulations over the next week. Weak systems tomorrow and Sunday with slight chance of light precip but not expecting much accumulation if anything falls at all.Delete
The only clipper worth mentioning is mid week next week which you can thanks for the warmth on Wednesday. Hard to say if we'll be seeing any precipitation wtih that at this point but a major rainfall is not expected.
Cross your fingers that this actually does happen but it looks like a warmer than average late April could be in store for us.ReplyDelete
In the meantime enjoy the overdue arrival of Spring over the next few days. Let the melting begin.
Certainly looks like the depths of winter are over at least. Long range guidance still showing generally below normal temperatures mid month... but by then anything under 10-12°C is below normal so considering how bad March was, things can only get better from here. Hard to say what late April will have in store.Delete
Airport struggling today only reaching 4°C so far. Warmer inside the city reaching 5-8°C in most parts.ReplyDelete
All the way up to 10°C in Reston in southwestern Manitoba this afternoon according to Manitoba Agriculture and 9°C in Morden.
Hey JJ, I'm back in business I really did not have a lot of free time to post things about our weather this winter, school work on top of busy evenings at home. Though with the spring weather finally arriving I feelmuch happier and more enthused to keep working on my blog, don't like the winter as much as other seasons. I'm starting up on my blog again and I was wondering if you have any tips or ideas for making my blog more appealing and interesting? Storm season is on the way, cannot wait until this snow melts. Good job on the blog improvements I like it!ReplyDelete
Hi Mike, good to see things are doing better.Delete
Honestly, the only suggestion/tip I have is find what you are best at and like to do the most and then focus on that. This can take some thought and time to experiment. You can also experiment with the overall look of your blog, rearrange things, see what you think works best. Don't feel pressured to add features to your blog that you just wont have the time to update regularly (probably better to invest your energy in one thing you're good at rather than spread a bit of energy on a ton of things). Some original content is always attractive as well.. I don't have many suggestions to give about that topic, because if I had thought of something better I would have added it to my own blog by now. That's something you will have to brainstorm about yourself.
JJ, do you think that 14C forecast for Wednesday is a bit too optimistic given the snowpack will still have?ReplyDelete
We've got a very warm airmass moving in on Wednesday... question as you mention is the snowpack.. It's hard to say how much of an impact it will have. If the very warm air aloft was able to mix down to the surface, then mid teens would be a certainty... but that's not a guarantee to occur.Delete