Thursday, 5 June 2014

Cooler Weather Returns Tomorrow

     Last night turned out to be a pretty spectacular light show southwest of Winnipeg. I ventured out there with Matt from A Weather Moment and we were not dissapointed! Frequent and intense cloud-to-ground strokes lit up the sky, some of the most impressive cloud-to-ground strikes I have seen. I only managed to capture a few of these on camera... some of which I've compiled into a video which you can view at the bottom of this post. I apologize in advance for the lack of sound; I didn't want to have our yelling and conversations in there!

     Looks like Winnipeg missed out on the storms but at least got a decent soaking. It appears the heaviest rainfall accumulations fell in south St Vital where 7-8 mm seems to have fallen. Generally 5-6 mm seems to have fallen in the remainder of the city according to the cocorahs network.

     For today, a shower or storm cannot be ruled out in Winnipeg. However, I think the best chance will be to our east in southeastern Manitoba and to our west near the Saskatchewan border. Severe risk is not very high, but an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out in southeastern Manitoba and the RRV where instability is expected to be highest. Nonetheless, we should manage to reach 25-27°C today.

     A vigorous cold front will pass through overnight with a chance of showers. Thunder doesn't look very likely with this but can't be ruled out. Much cooler tomorrow likely only reaching 17-19°C under mostly cloudy skies. A bit sunnier on Saturday with similar highs in the high teens but with a bit of instability, a pop up shower can't be ruled out.

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28 comments:

  1. Jj I agree with that comment about Winnipeg not being the storm scenter of Mb which makes me suspect those lightning stats understate South western MB.
    Are there any other sources for info from Souris, Melita Killarney Peace Gardens Reston area?? Even Winkler Morden Miami

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    1. I did some searching and found a couple sources of information... but overall, I'm not aware of many sources of climatological lightning data for southern Manitoba.

      http://www.cmos.ca/CB/cb170201.pdf
      http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/stats/NLDN_CG_Flash_Density_Km_1997-2012.png
      http://www.sirc.ca/online_resources/documents/Lightning-relatedinjuriesandfatalitiesinCanada_FINAL-TECHNICAL_1-September-06.pdf
      http://www.vaisala.com/Vaisala%20Documents/Scientific%20papers/Multiscale_analysis_of_lightning_strike_maps.pdf

      Some of the maps shown in those sources seem to indicate that yes, there is on average more lightning in southwestern Manitoba than in the southeast.

      The following link looks particularly interesting, showing the lightning density for each year from 2001-2009.
      http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3452.1
      Interestingly, taking a quick glimpse and estimate based on the maps given, 2005 and 2007 seem to have been the best year for the Canadian RRV in that period while 2003 and 2009 appear to have been the worst.

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    2. Thanks...looked at and downloaded some of these and see its not clear cut..Neat storm video.

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  2. We'll see how the afternoon goes with all this popcorn cumulus across southern Manitoba, but I suspect the best chance really will stay to our east. We're now getting some pop up thunderstorms in the Whiteshell and around Gretna at this time. I'm not very optimistic we'll see anything in Winnipeg today.

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  3. Winnipeg misses storms... if I got a dollar every time that happens I'd be a millionaire! Seriously though it seems as though western MB for the last few years at least has been the storm capital of MB. Can't remember it always being this way unless the rise in social media and other technology plus greater interest in weather have just made everyone more aware of it. Why Winnipeg always misses out I'll never understand.

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    1. If the surface trough was just a tad further west today, Winnipeg could have been under the gun as well.... Unfortunately, today was just bad luck.

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    2. Lol every setup is bad luck for us. Its turning into one of THOSE years again

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  4. Hmmmm....severe thunderstorm watches now in effect for areas west of the RRV and east of the RRV. Interesting and mind boggling at the same time.

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    1. My thundercast map for today says it all... Hole in activity right through the RRV.

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  5. Now I've seen it all. Watches west and east of us yet nothing in between. Somebody please explain what's happening here!

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  6. I've compiled a few of the lightning captures I got into a video which you can view in this post now. I apologize for the lack of sound and the low quality, but I didn't want to have our conversations and yelling in there! Of course, remember that I've saved the best for last in the video... I also recommend viewing in full screen.

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  7. a big line of showers in western manitoba..... question is: are there any thunderstorms in it?

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    1. There are few embedded thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba right now. However, they are expected to weaken and dissipate as they continue their trek eastward through the night. I am highly doubtful we'll see any thunder in Winnipeg tonight. Perhaps a brief shower, but it is possible we may not even get that if we're unlucky.

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    2. damn it, when will we ever get a nice one???

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  8. Like JJ said, the line of showers/ thunderstorms along the cold front has dissipated west of here. Nevertheless, it looks like there are is still a cell west of the Whiteshell area (between there and here in Winnipeg), and another still remains north of Dauphin area.

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  9. Well, hopefully everyone enjoyed the nice spell of summer over the last 2 weeks because we now return to the regularly schedule below normal regime that has been 2014 for at least the next 10 days or so if not more, although there are some hints that seasonal temps will return late next week but that also appears brief as another cooldown is likely to occur after that.

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    1. Researchers at the U of W and IISD have decided we shouldn't look outside for our Weather we should look at the Data. and what cherry picked Data it is I think Global Warming deserves better than this and I hope Julien you will help set the record accurately so that competent data is used The site is Free Press the Article Was Climate change and a panel will discuss it thursday eve at McNally Robinsons at 7pm. I have left several comments on the site referring them to your corrected data. a sample is as follows the Blog can be reached on my name or at
      Turning up the heat: Manitoba caught in climate change crosshairs
      http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/turning-up-the-heat-262208661.html


      After reviewing your column and more importantly the research on Canadian, Prairie, and Winnipeg Temperature Data I am less of a believer in Global Warming due to both Human and Industrial controllable carbon emissions than I was before now. Someone once said belief without proof is a religious requirement. Life Insurance and Investment guru sales departments are held to a much higher standard than this. In fact as I recall the three largest Canadian Insurers namely Great West, Sun and Manulife have been sued and penalised in some cases 9 figures for the use of Statistical Modelling not as bad as these prophets are suggesting we make a very inconvenient and costly bet on.
      Why would this unvarnished missinf be in print without the usual Advert notice on it and the disclaimer about " guarantees cannot be made that future performance will resemble the examples used" ??

      Here is why I think global warming deserves far better from the University and IISD and the Free Press.

      1) Meteorologists and weather geeks will tell you that 30 year weather periods are useful in many comparisons to establish new Norms. and so does EC. You in fact used that phrase on fps website when extolling us to look at the PPT presentation, for noting Winnipeg's climate changes.. The hairs on the back of my neck curled a little when I saw a 40 year period (1971 -2010) used and even more when I saw 2012. I checked. The only first year of a decade that would show an almost +3C increase in temperatures with 2010 is 1971. See the following chart by Julien a U of M Meteorology student who posts an excellent Blog and summaries of local weather statistics at http://jjwinnipegweather.blogspot.ca/
      http://wxrecordbooks.weebly.com/warmest-years.html

      IMO 1981 should have been used (30 years) but ironically that is the one decade starting year that would be warmer than 2010 in Winnipeg and possibly on the prairies, and would fail to show an increase. This graph http://ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=77842065-1
      by Environment Canada shows you why 1981 was not used. Now I was hooked


      The Blog Turning up the heat can be reached by selecting my name or at http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/turning-up-the-heat-262208661.html


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    2. I'm glad you're finding my record books useful! Thanks for sharing that because I missed those articles and therefore had not seen your comments.

      By the way, I am now adding the graphs for monthly/yearly/seasonal precipitation records for Winnipeg as we speak and hope to have it all up by tomorrow.

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    3. I couldn't be more impressed with your charts and data and to be able to show others what a great addition to Winnipeg's weather scene this is. The rest of an email and posting i made on the site and another site namely "Data" Blog run by the free press and the same writer Mary Agnes Welch
      The rest of the entry(s) looks something like this

      2) If IMO,  2010 was used because it was the warmest Decade ending year in history in Canada  . (talk about cherry picking Data) 2012  IMO was used only because it was  even warmer.  Is it true that Don Cherry is the source of that saying?  Rob Paola's Blog by the well known Meteorologist had this to say about 2010,...see
      http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/2011/01/2010-warmest-year-on-record-in-canada.html

      3) I was also  struck by the Sponsor and one of the participants, IISD, .  A previous experience Circa 2006 I attended a presentation at which a senior representative of this organization used data to argue that Private for profit Corporations (I believe he used the example of energy) would act in the best interest of society to conform to regulations if they "self regulated" rather than have government audits, regulators and regulations. My experience auditing and consulting to real life in the corporate sphere and the events of the next few years 2006,7,8 confirmed  my lack of confidence in his and his organizations credibility. This despite the fact I knew him personally to be of exemplary character.
      4) In the presentation the World Temperature Anomaly map from Dec. 2013 identifies the severe cold in both Siberia and areas adjacent to the Arctic and Hudson Bay greater than -6C according to the legend.  I am pleased that it made it into the presentation but disappointed it was dismissed with the (don't look outside comment)  If you want to pick dates other than decade anniversaries why not the two years before or the years after.Cherry picking IMO is choosing the 2 years of the Highest temperatures in Canada's history and in Western Canada's history.   By default all trends ending in those years would show some temperature increase. Why not the years/weather seasons ending in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014.  If we can cherry pick data why not the 34 years ending in 2014 June. This could equate to a -3C cool off in Prairie Weather.

      5.  .I might mention that Jan Feb of 2014 is not the Winter of 2014. DJF are used when making winter long range forecasts. Omitting Dec 2013 from the winter comparison (the coldest winter in 115 years ) shows either how unfamiliar these scholarly presenters are or? Using Jan Feb of 2014 and calling it "Winter" is less than candid or transparent.   
      As someone  once said "figures never lie but they do lean a little.." or something like that.

      The PPT presentation is at
      http://dannyblair.uwinnipeg.ca/presentations/blair-ppt-long-version-
      the%20threat%20of%20climate%20change-27march2014.pdf
      The" Data"Blog free Press link can be reached by selecting my name JayC2 above or at http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/blogs/welch/261881452.html
      The original article is at
      http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/turning-up-the-heat-262208661.html



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  10. A ''refreshing'' day today with more comfortable highs in the high teens and sunny skies. Should reach 17-19°C. Similar day tomorrow.

    Sunday is a little more turbulent with a weak system and cold front. There is a chance for showers and embedded rumbles of thunder. Timing is uncertain at this time so wont get into much detail.

    It appears we'll see a bit of a brief warmup back into the 20's to start the work week, but with that will come more shower and storm chances. Too early for specifics, but it appears thunderstorms will be possible in parts of southern Manitoba Monday through Wednesday. It certainly does look like we've re-entered into more of a normal to below normal temperature pattern for at least the next week or two with no significant warmups like what we have seen of late expected for at least the next week.

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  11. Lots of sun today with highs near 19-20°C, so overall pleasant. Cloudier day tomorrow but with a few sunny breaks at times we should manage to reach 20-22°C. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look likely in the afternoon and evening so overall a fairly unsettled day on tap. Severe activity is not expected.

    Sun comes out again on Monday as our little warmup begins. We should reach 23-24°C. Depending on cloud cover, mid 20's would be possible on Tuesday before things cool down on Wednesday and Thursday. Showers and storms might be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday, but I want to wait until tomorrow's updates to confirm it.

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  12. Scattered showers and storms through the day today across southern Manitoba, so an unsettled day in store. Unfortunately, I wont be able to update the thundercast today. Sun comes back tomorrow however, and we should reach 22-23°C. Chance of showers on Tuesday but we should see enough sunshine to reach 24-25°C (at least I'm hoping). A more significant rainfall is possible on Wednesday, but not all models agree on this. Will watch the next few days. Overall the next week looks quite unsettled with multiple rain chances.

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  13. Looks like the thunderstorms did materialize today with pea sized hail reported in parts of Winnipeg. 19 mm of rain fell today in St Adolphe just south of the city according to Manitoba Agriculture, some from the rain this morning but most of it from the training thunderstorms of today. Looks like the storms missed south St Vital with no accumulation of rain recorded at my place this afternoon... storms were very isolated in nature today.

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  14. Interesting line of storms west of Lake Manitoba starting to build southwards. Something to watch this evening as it moves east; we certainly could get another storm here late tonight if it holds together long enough.

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  15. Lots of sun today with a high around 22°C. Looks like the thunderstorm activity missed us to the north last night again.

    Showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder possible to start the day tomorrow, then a mix of sun and cloud and a high around 24-25°C likely. A surface trough through the RRV and/or southeastern Manitoba will likely be the focus for more storm activity in the afternoon and evening. Severe activity not hugely likely but can't rule out a marginally severe cell or two. Hard to say if Winnipeg will get into this activity because there are hints the trough may setup just to the east of the city.

    Huge uncertainty about what will happen Wednesday into Wednesday night with a big spread among models. NAM brings an area of rain much earlier in the day than the GEM does, whereas the GFS keeps it well to the east out of Manitoba. Looks like the best chance for this rain will be in southeastern Manitoba nonetheless with the potential that Winnipeg may once again just be brushed by the system. Will have to wait and see right now.

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    1. Sure didn't warm as much as expected today, only getting to 20°C at the airport. Looks like there were some 21's and 22's within city limits at some of the yard stations around the city. Looks like this will end my record 6-day streak of perfect high temperature forecasts for day 1!

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  16. Just found out about this blog a few days ago and really enjoying this site. Very well put together with tons of stats. Excellent work!!

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    1. Thanks! Looking foreward to your comments here in the future.

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