Sunday, 22 June 2014

Unsettled Conditions Continue For a Couple More Days

Storm over northwest Winnipeg taken from near Oak Bluff
     It turned out to be a fairly stormy day across southern Manitoba yesterday. A supercell thunderstorm developed just to the southeast of Winnipeg mid afternoon. Hail as large as golf balls was reported near Lorette. A funnel cloud was also reported on twitter. It appears there were no tornadoes. Additional thunderstorms moved in for the evening around Winnipeg, hitting the west and north parts of Winnipeg hardest. Around 7 mm of rain fell at the airport and 6 mm in Charleswood while just 1.9 mm fell here in south St Vital where we missed the action. 

     For today, the chance of showers and storms is much lower than yesterday, but the chance is still there. They will be much more isolated today so not everyone will see something. With lots of sun we should manage to reach around 25°C or so.

     Tomorrow looks cloudier and showers will be likely at times. A thunderstorm can't be ruled out, albeit non-severe. Due to cloud cover, we should only reach around 20°C for a high.

     The cooler conditions continue on Tuesday but it will be much sunnier. The low pressure system and instability which have plagued us for several days will finally be moving out, meaning showers and storms are not expected across southern Manitoba Tuesday afternoon.

     At this point, it appears warmer weather will return late this week into next weekend. After a quiet work week, thunderstorm chances may reincrease by the weekend as well, but it is too early to say for sure.

40 comments:

  1. JJ, any update the thunderstorm risk today?
    Thanks

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    1. Risk was never high for today. Only very isolated as we saw today. Sorry I didn't get to answer you earlier.

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  2. Doesn't look like we'll see thunderstorms at this point for the rest of today. Maybe some storms tomorrow but the risk is low.

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  3. A nice start to the day... but clouds will increase later this morning into early this afternoon with a few showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening. I'd say the risk for thunder in Winnipeg is moderate. Slow-moving storms could give locally torrential rains today across southern Manitoba.

    Cool with some sun and cloud tomorrow, likely only reaching high teens. Our warmup begins Wednesday with temperatures reaching low 20's under fairly sunny skies.

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  4. Low shear very evident today with these pulse variety cells over the city, almost stationary at times. I've received just over 2 mm so far this afternoon here in River Park South but I've heard there's barely been a drop just to the east of here. Cell is currently stationary just west of the Red River.

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  5. Thunderstorms once again eluding Winnipeg. Isolated cells in city just producing some downpours.

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  6. I'll take these downpours I guess... Just over 7 mm here so far today. Not a drop near the airport yet.

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  7. Gonna be cooler for the next couple of days before much warmer and more humid air moves in by Friday but Friday night and the weekend look quite unstable with potential for severe thunderstorms throughout that period so it looks like yet another active weekend ahead. Just can't buy a decent quiet weekend this year.

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  8. Odd, but YWG now reporting thunderstorm.

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  9. Yikes, it does not look like this low cloud will be going anywhere anytime soon. Today looks cloudy as a result. Even tomorrow may end up fairly cloudy as well. It wont be until Thursday that we get the chance for more abundant sunshine. As a result, we'll only reach high teens today and around 20°C tomorrow. Warmer around 24°C to 25°C or so by Thursday. Depending on sunshine, highs approaching 30°C would be possible on Friday. However, thunderstorm chances begin ramping up on Friday.

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  10. Looks like a pretty high risk for severe thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba Friday. Instability won't be an issue as there will be plenty of it. The weekend remains quite unstable with more storm chances Saturday and Sunday.

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  11. with the severe risk will there be any squal lines? MCS's? Muiltcelluar lines? Thanks

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    1. MCSs will likely occur late in the week and into the weekend, but it's too early to make any guarantees on location and timing.

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  12. okay, how do you know mcs will occur?

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    1. By definition, an MCS is simply an area of convective precipitation or thunderstorm activity at least 100 km across in at least one direction. Severe activity is not needed for an area of thunderstorms to be considered an MCS.

      With increasing instability, shear and moisture this weekend, I don't see why a few MCSs wouldn't develop in the Northern Plains and southeastern Prairies. But you just can't gurantee location and timing this early in the game; models can change and there are factors we just don't know for sure until closer to the event.

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    2. Taking a quick look, I'd say the BEST risk for storms in Winnipeg would be late Friday through to early Sunday.

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  13. Another cloudy day today as low cloud lingers. As a result, we'll likely only reach around 20°C or so. There may be a few breaks in the cloud this afternoon; if enough breaks occur, we may see temperatures briefly jump to around 21-23°C or so.

    Unfortunately, tomorrow also is looking cloudier now, but we'll still manage to see a bit of sun, especially early in the day. There is a chance for showers and possibly some thunder in the afternoon and evening.

    Friday gets complicated. Elevated showers and thunderstorms will be possible early in the day, including Winnipeg. Redevelopment of storms is likely to our west in the afternoon with additional storms possible for the Winnipeg area Friday night. It will be very humid on Friday, likely the most humid day so far this year as dewpoints approach 20°C. Depending on sunshine, the potential is there for highs in the high 20's.

    Additional thunderstorm activity is possible on Saturday.

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    1. Are there some more rain early next week before a possible improvement in mother nature after Canada Day?

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    2. Showers and cloud look to linger for Monday and Tuesday as this incoming system hangs around a little longer. However, it wont be a washout as we'll likely still manage to see a bit of sun. It will be much cooler though with highs in the high teens to low 20's likely both days. Tuesday would be coolest, likely only reaching mid to high teens. At this time, it appears high pressure moves off to our east afterwards, allowing for warmer weather to return by late week next week. Of course, that is pretty far away still, but that's how it looks so far.

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  14. I see E.C's homepage has changed again.

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  15. Yeah it does look like things may finally begin to look better after Canada Day with warmer drier and sunnier for the 2nd half of next week and perhaps beyond.

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  16. Looks like a very good bet that severe thunderstorms will occur tomorrow at some point across much of Southern Manitoba. Huge SBCAPE values forecasted for tomorrow in the range of 3000+ J/KG. meanwhile thunderstorms are possible later today into tonight with the potential for localized heavy downpours. The next few days in three words is warm humid and stormy.

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  17. That predicted high of 20°C from Environment Canada is way too low for today. I see sunny breaks are now occurring in the RRV. As a result, I believe we've got a good shot at at least 24°C today, perhaps even a degree or two warmer if we can maintain the sunshine for a little longer.

    There is a risk for elevated thunderstorms tonight in the Winnipeg area. This type of nocturnal activity is difficult to predict, so I wont be much more specific than saying there's a chance. Timing is questionable as well with this type of activity so all I can say is that the best chance will be from the evening through to tomorrow morning. My main concern if anything develops tonight is heavy rain due to possibly slow-moving and training storms, however, hail is possible.

    Thunderstorms possible again tomorrow afternoon and evening. Best chance will be in southwestern Manitoba where I've already issued a high risk of thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are possible with all modes of severe weather possible. Slow-moving and training thunderstorms may be a concern.

    Thunderstorms possible yet again on Saturday.

    Note that the next few days will be very uncomfortable due to high humidity. Overnight lows will barely drop below 20°C, especially tomorrow night when it is possible we may not even drop below 20°C at all.

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  18. I see E.C. has dramatically altered it's forecast with the 11 Am update and have basically called off the showers and thunderstorms today and tonight with now only a slight chance at 30%. And they still have a high of only 20C today.

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    1. Strange considering it's already reached 20-21°C according to some of the stations inside the city.

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    2. As for the precip change, I'd expect to see a lot of that in the next few days as models flip flop on timing and location of thunderstorms (doesn't help that EC's forecast is automated, making it prone to flip flopping). For anyone looking for storms, I wouldn't get too discouraged by that drop in the forecast just yet.

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  19. Agreed. Also that huge change in their forecast seems a little strange too me as well to a certain degree.

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  20. Yeah very true. also to note is that Winnipeg's forecast is virtually the only one that has dramatically changed with all forecast areas west north east and south having 60% or greater chance of storms today and tonight according to E.C. So certainly easy to see the flaws in the automated forecast system.

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  21. And YWG is now at 20 C as of 11 AM.

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  22. The forecasts are automated but only fully automated 3 days out and beyond. Up until the end of tomorrow forecasters can still tweak the automated forecast if they think its incorrect. In this case a forecaster has actually removed pretty much the chances of storms tonight because they think it won't happen for some reason.

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    1. I susect that EC like many other orgs as they approach the other family holiday weekend in June/july may be more concerned with staff juggling and last minute vacation plans,,, Nothing like Family Life to interfere with the best laid plans. This is just speculation. Does anyone know for sure?
      FYI the river is approaching a 40 year high (for this date) at James street. Perhaps we do not need any more rain, else where will the Pony Corral park the cars. The BDI and St Vital park may have an interesting view of the River. if you are out n about this weekend.

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  23. Well the updated E.C forecast has showers and storms completely removed now for today and tonight. But they have adjusted the forecast high to 23 now which still may be too low.

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    1. I'm not completely ruling out the chance for storms and showers tonight myself.

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  24. Well the month is not quite done yet but it looks like June is the 9th consecutive month below normal. When will it end.

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    1. I'd say it will be very close. 1984-2013 normal is 17.1°C. So far we're at 16.3°C. How we finish depends how warm we get the next few days, dependent largely on how much sun we manage to get.

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  25. Although the risk is looking low, the risk for a shower or thunderstorm tonight remains for the RRV and southeastern Manitoba. In fact, there are already some weak storms developing south of Emerson at this time. I don't think we'll see anything very significant tonight; rather it looks more hit and miss. Better chance comes later in the day tomorrow.

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    1. A Special Weather Statement is once more advising anything from 5 10 mm per day this weekend to 100mm total in SW and Central Manitoba including Winnipeg.
      http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb9#219cwwg

      I think I'll move my car out of the underground garage.

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  26. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are materializing in southeastern Manitoba tonight so far. However, certainly not a big event by any means. Scattered showers and storms remain possible through the remainder of the night.

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    1. West Hawk Lake got 23mm from that brief t-storm last eve.

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  27. Not surprinsingly, looks like the Winnipeg area was on the short end of the stick once again so far today. Brandon was the place to be with multiple rounds of storms overnight and this morning.

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