Friday 12 September 2014

Worst of The Cold Now Exiting

     It has been a very chilly past few days across the Prairies with temperatures some 5 to 15°C colder than normal for this time of year. At least for us here in Manitoba, we can be thankful we didn't get the cold and snow Alberta received. Calgary Int'l Airport's 28.2 cm of snow this past week puts this September as 7th snowiest since 1884 so far. Highs struggled to exceed the freezing mark on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thankfully, here in Winnipeg those types of temperatures were only at night; during the day we managed to reach low teens, still almost 10°C  below normal however. Thanks to cloud cover, we also managed to escape any frost this week around Winnipeg. Areas west and southeast of the city were not as lucky this morning, where temperatures dipped below freezing in the Carberry, Carman, Winkler and Steinbach regions.

     Despite the cold, it was still a fabulous evening today. I managed to capture a nice picture from Henteleff Park in south Winnipeg, seen above. I like to call the park a hidden gem because not too many people actually know about the park and it has limited access.

     A slow warmup is expected for the next few days. A low pressure system moving into southern Manitoba tomorrow will help to usher in some warmer conditions. Unfortunately, cloud cover and scattered shower activity will likely prevent us from seeing temperatures rise too much. We'll likely only reach around 14-16°C, perhaps 17°C if we get some sunny breaks. Cooler on Sunday behind the system, only reaching low teens again.

     Sunshine and warmer weather return on Monday. We should manage to reach high teens, potentially as high as 18-19°C.

     After a brief cool down mid week, early indications point to a more prolonged period of warmer weather late week into next weekend. Highs in the 20's look likely at this time. There might be some chances for rain however, so it wont necessarily be full sunshine at all times.

21 comments:

  1. Beautiful photo Julien! Fall is definitely in the air.. but after seeing Calgary, I'm not going to complain. Looking forward to the warm up next week!

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    1. Thanks Rob... Sure hope next weekend turns out quite warm and sunny. The leaves should really start to change colour soon so any warm and sunny weather at this point will make for great photo opportunities.

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  2. The bonus sunshine today has allowed temperatures of 17°C to be realised so far in Winnipeg. With still some sunshine remaining, we'll see if we can get a little higher. Chance for showers this evening through to tomorrow morning remains

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  3. Some sun and cloud today, leaning towards the cloud. Can't rule out an isolated sprinkle, but the risk is low. We'll only reach about 13-15°C depending on how many sunny breaks we can get.

    Lots of sun tomorrow with just a few clouds. We should reach a ''balmy'' 18-19°C. Similar on Tuesday with a high around 19-20°C possible, as long as the cold air doesn't reach too far south. Luckily, models are now trending towards less of a cool down midweek, keeping the colder air to our north and east. This will keep our highs in the high teens for Wednesday... Then we get into the 20's late week into the weekend! There is just one bump in the road however. Looks like some rain and possibly some thunderstorms are possible on Friday. Too early for details.

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    1. Unfortunately, models are bringing the cold further south than previously thought for Wednesday. As a result, a cold front tomorrow night could bring a few light showers. Only expecting to reach 13-15°C or so on Wednesday as a result. Warming back up on Thursday, reaching high teens to low 20's. Possibly mid 20's on Friday if we can get enough sun (there will be a chance for showers). We cool down slightly for the weekend behind the system, but it shouldn't last long.

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  4. JJ any chance for storms? GFS hinting at 3,000 CAPE for Friday NAM closer to 1,000 or 2,000 J/kg on Thursday and Friday. Thought's?

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    1. Looks like some thunder might be possible Thursday night into Friday if timing works in our favour. Definitely want to wait a couple days before making any confirmations.

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  5. Cloudier than anticipated today, at least this morning. Highs difficult to forecast... we could reach anywhere from 17 to 20°C depending on cloud cover. Cold front passes through overnight tonight with a chance for showers, then we clear for tomorrow. Cooler, only reaching mid teens.

    Increasing cloud Thursday ahead of a low pressure system. Warmer however, reaching 21-22°C or so. Rain looks like Thursday night into early Friday, and there may be a few rumbles of thunder. Highs on Friday will be highly dependent on if we clear out by the afternoon or not. If we do, highs could reach the mid 20's, the warmest we've been in a while.

    We cool down for the weekend behind the system, but so far it appears we may warm up big time next week. Some models hinting at highs getting close to 30°C on some days. Crossing my fingers this holds true!

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    1. I should note that this warm second half of September will likely be enough for September to finish above normal... Not a big surprise considering warm Septembers really have been the trend in the last couple decades. We haven't had a September that was over 1.0°C below normal since 1999.

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  6. Great pic jj Another peg gem is sunrise thru the trees at assinniboine park when the leaves are colorful. Just east of the big locomotive. Enter the park at Corydon and shaftsberry and immediately turn right and drive towards the wellington crescent gate Second and also nearby is the gardens and trellis just south of the Carol Shields maze in Kings park.

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  7. Unfortunately, our sunny day today has been squashed by an extensive area of low cloud across southern Manitoba. I suspect it should break up gradually through the day and we should see some sun this afternoon. Wont warm much though, only reaching 13-14°C.

    Strong southerly flow sets up tomorrow with sustained south/southeast winds of 25-40 km/h. Quite sunny to start, but increasing cloud later in the afternoon and evening. Should reach low 20's. Showers and thunderstorms are looking likely tomorrow night. Looking like a quick system, so it shouldn't last terribly long and we should be in sunshine by later in the morning on Friday. Another low 20's day Friday.

    Another low 20's day possible on Saturday before we cool down for the beginning of next week. Warming up later in the week.

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  8. Unfortunately, the cloud did not break up enough in Winnipeg today to warm things up too much. A big bust in forecasts today as models did not catch the cloud cover today. They tend to have trouble forecasting these low-cloud scenarios. Barely reached double digits today with a high of 10.0°C at the airport so far. Clouds did break up south of the city with highs in the low teens, even as high as 14-15°C locally close to the US border in southwestern Manitoba.

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  9. A very unsettled and complicated next few days are setting up for southern Manitoba.

    Tonight could be a very interesting night. Models indicate there could be quite a bit of elevated instability and shear moving into southern Manitoba overnight, which thanks to an advancing trough of low pressure, could spark off some strong thunderstorms late in the evening and overnight into the morning. The question remains where exactly these storms will develop? Elevated nocturnal storms can be quite unpredictable. Nonetheless, anything that develops could become severe given high instability available. Large hail could be a main threat, with damaging winds and training storms possible.

    Additional thunderstorms remain possible throughout the afternoon and evening tomorrow as the system pushes eastward. A shower or thunderstorm is again possible in the PM hours on Saturday as a weak front pushes through.

    As for temperatures, 20-21°C today, possibly mid 20's tomorrow depending on cloud cover, and 19-22°C on Saturday depending on cloud cover as well.

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  10. I see there are huge temperature contrasts in Southern Manitoba at this hour. Only 16 C here Winnipeg meanwhile Brandon is at 23 C.

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  11. Looks like we may get a band of light showers early this evening.... Thunder doesn't look too likely, but the chance is there. Really have not had the time today to look at tonight, but the trend in the models right now seems to be not much around Winnipeg. The risk of storms is still there, especially to our south. Best chance may actually be in the morning. Anything that develops could become severe.

    For once, we finally have some good weather to look foreward to. The end of the month is looking warmer than normal so far for us. A longer period of warmth may begin early-mid next week. Hard to say if this warmer weather will last into the start of October or not.

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  12. Looks like the further south scenario became the true scenario for tonight... Nothing for the northern RRV, but storms along the US border to our south and southeast this morning. Quite the warm and moisture advection that occurred last night though with a low-level jet of 100-110 km/h just above the surface recorded thanks to a weather baloon launch at the uofm. Even saw rising temperatures, stalling near 20°C! Unfortunately, today's high minimum record is too high to break - old record is 19.4°C in 1941.

    Looks like we will see a chance for showers throughout the day today... Some thunder is possible. My main concerned for Winnipeg is that the cold front may be passing through too early in the day and the main threat may be just to our south as a result.

    More showers and possibly some thunder, again possible tomorrow as a cold front swings through midday. Shouldn't be an all out cloudy day however - we should see some sunshine at times, especially in the afternoon behind the front, assuming there isn't any unexpected low cloud. A chance for showers will remain through to the evening. though

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  13. Small pop up slow-moving storm moved through the south part of the city almost an hour ago. Dumped a quick 5.3 mm at my place as it looks like my area was one of the hardest hit. Hardest hit line was generally from the University of Manitoba to St Vital Centre and onto Southdale and Islands Lakes with generally 5-7 mm. Cluster of thunderstorms around Brandon at this time may bring another round of storms for us early this afternoon... There will also be some sunshine this afternoon.

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  14. Looks like the cold front has moved thru already as winds have shifted to the NW. Storms chances virtually diminished now not that the risk was very high to begin with.

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  15. Not very optimistic for much neither today. Glad we got at least something here in the south end today... hopefully not the last storm of the year! Still a chance for something tomorrow, but should be quite weak.

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  16. Quite the cell just south of Emerson. By the look of some of the twitter pictures, looks like baseball sized hail locally and possibly a tornado. Winnipeg spared the worst for today.

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    1. Very interesting storm southeast of Emerson and south of Sprague continues this evening south of the border. There appears to be quite a tornado in the photo below:

      https://twitter.com/kev13_wx/status/513122859196379136/photo/1

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