Thursday, 1 January 2015

#4, #3 & #2 - Top 10 Weather Stories of 2014 in The Winnipeg Area

#4 - Super-Soaking June Storms 

 

Biblical amounts of rain fell over the Prairies again this year – this time in mid and late June. While Winnipeg and the Red River Valley did see well above normal rainfall, amounts were much higher out west.

147.1 mm of rain fell at Winnipeg airport in June, 65% above normal and the 12th rainiest June since 1872. Most of the rain fell in the last 18 days of the month with a whopping 133.8 mm. Heavier amounts fell in southern and eastern portions of the city where over 160 mm fell in June, more than 140 mm of which fell in the last 18 days of the month.

Most of the rain fell during two multi-day rain events. The first was from June 13 to 16. This particular rain event affected mostly the Parklands, Interlake, southeast and Red River Valley portions of southern Manitoba where anywhere from 20 to 120 mm of rain fell (see rainfall map here). In Winnipeg, generally 65-80 mm fell. 69.9 mm fell at Winnipeg airport, the greatest rainfall event since late May 2010. Heavier amounts fell to the north and east with 93.5 mm in Beauséjour and 120.6 mm in Lockport. Localized training thunderstorms on June 14 caused these higher amounts. Most of the rain fell on June 15 with a Colorado Low. 40.1 mm fell at the airport June 15 alone, obliterating the old record of 18.3 mm in 1928.

Another significant rainfall occurred June 19 with 20-30 mm in Winnipeg. The Brandon area was hit hard as a training band of heavy downpours moved through for several hours. A whopping 75.2 mm was recorded at Brandon airport.

Another multi-day rain event occurred June 27 to July 1 (see rainfall map here). Winnipeg received 35 to 65 mm during the period. Southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan were hit hard as multiple waves of heavy rain and thunderstorms drenched the region with 90 to 200 mm. Amounts included about 138 mm in Brandon and about 164 mm in Deloraine. June 27 was particularly wet in the Brandon area with 50+ mm locally. According to some of my family members, the town of Rapid City experienced significant flooding as a creek burst its banks onto properties and streets after thunderstorms dumped over 75 mm of rain.

The TCH east of Brandon; Credit: Randall Paull
Too much rain in too little time on top of already wet soils spelled disaster. Significant overland and stream flooding occurred on both sides of the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border.  Creeks and rivers burst their banks as they neared or exceeded record levels, including the Assiniboine River. Vast expanses of farm field flooded and several highways were closed and washed out. Water even topped portions of the Trans-Canada Highway, as seen to the right in the photo by Randall Paull on twitter. Water also topped the access road to the Brandon airport, causing flight cancellations. Many communities issued states of emergency, including the City of Brandon. The situation was reminiscent of spring 2011 – the only difference this time was that the flooding was caused by heavy summer rains. Flooding of this calibre occurring in the middle of summer is almost unheard of in these areas.

The systems that affected southern Manitoba late month, particularly a system which moved in on June 29, were more typical of spring or fall systems. Station-level pressure dropped to 95.78 kPa at Winnipeg airport at 6 pm on June 29, the 4th lowest pressure reading in June on record since 1953. Very strong winds behind the system brought damaging winds to southwestern Manitoba. Brandon recorded sustained winds of 50 to 70 km/h and gusts of 80 to 100 km/h. A maximum sustained wind of 72 km/h and maximum gust of 104 km/h were recorded.

In the end, 251.6 mm of rain fell in Brandon in June. This was not only the rainiest June but also by far the rainiest month on record since 1890. It obliterated the old record of 217.3 mm in August 1980. Even more impressive, 219.8 mm of this rain fell in just the last 12 days of the month, more than half the annual normal. A large swath of the Prairies from Brandon, Manitoba to Lethbridge, Alberta saw record June rains. As a result, it’s no mystery that flooding was so severe. Thankfully for southeastern Manitoba, the rains were less intense. Thus, flooding was not as concerning as it was out west.

To finish off, the Brandon Sun had some great photos of the flooding in southwestern Manitoba. You can view them by following this link.

#3 - January 15 ''Super-Clipper'' 


An unusually potent clipper system raced across the Prairies January 15-16. It produced rapidly rising temperatures to record highs, record winds, significant blowing snow and even thundersnow.

The system began by producing record winds and high temperatures in the morning and afternoon in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Edmonton municipal airport (near downtown) recorded a wind gust of 120 km/h, the strongest wind on record in Edmonton. Old record was 117 km/h on June 6, 1960. Similar story in Saskatoon where a gust of 115 km/h was recorded, breaking the old January record of 111 km/h in 1986. A summary of the damages caused in Edmonton can be seen here, and in Saskatoon here. Numerous record high temperatures were also reached with highs reaching mid to high single digits.

In Winnipeg, temperatures reached a record 3.3°C early evening (old record 2.2°C in 1973) after a low of -27.4°C in the morning. This 30.7°C warmup was the greatest single-day warmup on record since 1872.

Table: Top 5 greatest single-day ('calendar-day') warmups since 1872


Rank
Magnitude of warmup
Date
1*
30.7°C
2
30.6°C
Jan 20, 1874
2
30.6°C
May 12, 1949
4
30.5°C
May 19, 1899
4
30.5°C
Jan 30, 1934



Note that the previous table does not consider how rapidly the warmup occurred. In this case, temperatures rose 30.7°C in just 14 hours. However, even greater rates of warming have occurred in the past. For example, on April 28, 1985, temperatures rose 26°C in just 8 hours (from 4°C to 30°C).

Blizzard conditions in Emerson early Jan 16; source
Unfortunately, the mild temperatures only lasted a few hours as we plunged back into the deep freeze behind a cold front later in the evening. This cold front was unusually strong and produced thundersnow southwest of Winnipeg between Carman and Winkler. Lightning in January is almost unheard of in Manitoba. The only other occurrence of lightning in January I could find was on January 16, 1876 (found in Penziwol's ''Storm Signals: A History of Weather in Manitoba''). Not that I'm saying there hasn't been lightning since then in January, but that is the only other report I could find.

The strong winds began as the cold front passed through late evening. Thankfully, the winds were not as strong as they were out west, but gusts were still in the 80 to 100 km/h range. Winnipeg recorded gusts of 80 to 85 km/h close to midnight. Sustained winds were in the 50 to 70 km/h range through the night. The maximum gust was in Portage with a gust of 104 km/h. The strong winds along with some new snowfall produced blowing snow and near-blizzard conditions in the Red River Valley early January 16.

#2 - An Historical Streak of Cold Months & Coldest Year Since 1996 


To many, cold will be known as the top weather story of 2014 in southern Manitoba. Beginning October 2013, every single month averaged colder than the previous 30-year average up until and including July. This 10-month streak of colder than average months was the longest since an 11-month streak in 1887-1888 and the 4th longest on record since 1872. The peak of the cold occurred in the winter and spring. In fact, 5 consecutive months averaged more than 3.5°C colder than the previous 30-year average, the longest streak of its kind since 1872. It was the deep freeze and winter that would never end.

The following table summarizes the 10-month streak of colder than average months by giving each month's deviation. Some notable statistics are also included.


Month
Deviation from previous 30-year average mean temperature
Notable statistics
Sep 2013
+2.5

Oct 2013
-0.6

Nov 2013
-1.1
Dec 2013
-7.4
Jan 2014
-3.8
Feb 2014
-6.4
Mar 2014
-6.8
Apr 2014
-4.1
5 consecutive months averaging over 3.5°C below the 30-year average, longest streak ever
May 2014
-0.1

Jun 2014
-0.1

Jul 2014
-1.0
Aug 2014
+0.5



In the end, 2014 averaged 1.2°C, 1.7°C below the 1981-2010 normal and tied 28th coldest year since 1873. It was the coldest year since 1996. After two consecutive cold years (2013 averaged 1.4°C), hopefully 2015 will be more forgiving.
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A list of sources can be found here.

2 comments:

  1. Unfortunately (unless you enjoy winter), looks like this next system will have an impact on our landscape here in southern Manitoba. A decent accumulation is expected, including in Winnipeg.

    Before the system actually moves in tomorrow night, a wave of light snow is likely early tomorrow morning. This wont bring much, likely no more than 1 cm.

    Steadier snows should begin sometime early evening tomorrow. Winds wont be too strong to start off, but will gradually increase through the evening and overnight. Snow could be heavy at times tomorrow night. Heaviest snow right now is expected to be south of the Trans-Canada, generally riding not too far from the US border. The bulk of the snow will end sometime early in the morning, before most of us are awake. However, there could be some light snow still falling. The main concern by Saturday will be the winds from the north-northwest at 40 gusting to 50-60 km/h around Winnipeg, perhaps even stronger south of the city (Emerson area especially is prone to very strong northerly winds funneling up the valley). This will create significant blowing snow and possibly blizzard conditions around Winnipeg. I don't think we'll reach blizzard criteria within city neighbourhoods, but in open and rural areas blizzard criterion may be met. I wouldn't be surprised to see blizzard warnings south of the city issued. Winds will taper off late in the day on Saturday.

    As for snowfall totals, I anticipate somewhere around 7 to 13 cm or so around Winnipeg. Generally 10-20 cm south of the city closer to the US border, perhaps locally a bit higher under any heavier bands.

    As usual, keep in touch with Environment Canada and weather blogs for updates. We're still 2 days off, so things could still change slightly.

    Bitterly cold behind the system for several days as we really lock into a frigid pattern. Lows in the mid -30's possible Sunday morning (can't rule out -35°C) and highs only in the mid -20's. Unfortunately, the cold looks to stay for a while.

    December summary will be posted this evening. The number one event of 2014 will be posted either tomorrow evening or Saturday.

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  2. By the way, the Manitoba t-storm 2014 summary has been posted on AWM :)

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