Temperatures wont fall much at all tonight with a low not far from 0°C. Another warm one tomorrow with a high above zero again. Unfortunately, it looks like we may stay on the cloudy side with just a few breaks in the cloud possible.
Staying mild for Saturday. However, a slightly stronger clipper system could bring some accumulative snow on Saturday into Saturday night. It will be a quick system so a quick 2-5 cm is possible. Will update in the comments if things change...
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| NAM simulated radar for 6pm Saturday, showing the forecast snows in southern Manitoba |
Brief cool down for Sunday before we get back into the warmth until Wednesday.
Unfortunately, it is becoming more apparent that a more major cool down might begin by Thursday (29th). Frigid temperatures may greet us into February. However, I am not yet convinced this cool down will last terribly long. As usual, will keep you up to date.
Even got a bit of light rain earlier this evening in the city. High of 3.7°C at the airport so far today... As mentioned, we will not drop much at all tonight, likely staying above zero for most, if not all, of the night.
ReplyDeleteTragically, models have trended a bit higher in amounts overnight for tomorrow... Now consensus lies in the 5-10 cm range. Good news if you want snow...
ReplyDeleteChance for a bit more snow Monday... More detail to come on the weekend.
Model updates this morning continue to push the system even further west with heaviest accumulations in southwestern and south-central Manitoba, west of Winnipeg. I hope this trend continues.
DeleteWhat a day today though... thankfully the cloud has broken up which is just a bonus. Seeing some +5's inside city limits this afternoon.
All the way up to 6.3°C here in South St Vital this afternoon. Only got up to 3.1°C at the airport and 4.9°C at The Forks so far. A decent March-like melt today with a significant loss of snow pack. Snow depth down to as low as 5 cm in open spots in my yard, but I'm calling it a depth of around 10-11 cm overall (maximum depth in the yard now only 24 cm). Field nearby has very little snow for this time of year.
ReplyDeleteMy goodness, has the forecast changed for today... The system marched even further west than expected again for today. Looks like we'll be lucky to even get any accumulation at all in Winnipeg today with just a few light flurries possible. Main snow remaining all the way in south-southeast Saskatchewan and parts of southwestern Manitoba. As a result of the more west track, we'll be a little colder than previously thought for today in Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteNext chance for snow is tomorrow evening into early Monday. This system will be very quick so I anticipate less than 2 cm most likely in Winnipeg, but that could change if the track changes so stay tuned...
Very warm on Tuesday with highs above zero again. Just how warm will depend a bit on sunshine (NAM keeps us cloudy) and wind direction (NAM keeps a south wind down the valley, but other models bring west-northwest winds which would be more favourable).
Major cool down begins Thursday as already mentioned. Unfortunately, this cold snap continues to look more and more prolonged. At the moment, it looks like this cool down could last through to at least mid February.
Canada 2014 severe t-storms summary should be posted on AWM later today if things go as planned. I apologize for the lateness this year as the transition from having the posts on my blog to AWM slowed things down this year. After the transition, things should be much faster for next year.
ReplyDeleteHi JJ, I am back. I have posted some really interesting stuff on my blog lately, I am wondering if you would be at all interested in reading up on the history of severe weather in Manitoba. About the portage la prairie tornado, and the Elie Tornado. Also a bit of a story on What would happen when a tornado hits the city of Winnipeg. It took me 4 days to write all of this and put it together. http://southmbweather.blogspot.ca/2015/01/what-will-happen-when-tornado-hits.html?spref=fb
ReplyDeleteHiya Mike, I have seen your new posts and enjoy your summary of some of the historic tornadoes. In the same context, I found interesting that in the David Phillips calendar this year he has a story of a tornado just north of the city hitting around Birds Hill on OCTOBER 5, 1908. Apparently poles were knocked down and some buildings were badly damaged. Interestingly, the high that day was only 15.6°C. I found that story surprising as I didn't realise there had been tornadoes that close to Winnipeg in October before... I'm not sure how accurate that story is neither. Anyways, I just thought I'd mention that.
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