Monday 9 February 2015

Snow Tomorrow

     Tomorrow's system is looking more promising for a decent snowfall in the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg. Steady snows should move in early in the morning tomorrow and last most of the day, tapering off by evening. In contrast to systems last week, this next one should be more difficult to miss. At least 5-10 cm of snow should fall in the Winnipeg area. As usual, I will keep you all up to date in the comments below.

     Winds will pick up behind the system tomorrow evening, creating drifting snow in the city and blowing snow in open areas. The strong winds will continue on Wednesday, producing ongoing blowing and drifting in open areas. It will also be quite cold with afternoon temperatures not far from -20°C. A very cold night is expected Wednesday night with lows not far from -30°C possible. Unfortunately, no major warmups, similar to what we saw in January and December, are expected for the next couple weeks.

16 comments:

  1. Snow has begun as planned and will continue for most of the day. Not very heavy this morning as it will be heaviest this afternoon. I'm calling it 6-12 cm.

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  2. 5 cm here in south St Vital as of 4:30 pm. Light snow to continue until this evening with additional 1-3 cm. Forecasts worked very well with this system which was a nice change. Snow depth now about 18 cm or so here.

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  3. Looks like generally 6 cm in the city yesterday so forecasts overall worked pretty well. Now the deep freeze with an extended period of colder than normal conditions on our way... Also a bit of snow possible tomorrow afternoon and evening with no more than 1 cm.

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    1. A few flurries possible this evening, but it doesn't look like we'll get much if anything at all.

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  4. The long range keeps looking worse and worse every single day. NAEFS now giving near 100% chance of below normal temperatures 2 weeks from now:

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2015021200_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

    Looks like February will be finishing much colder than normal.... I guess winter is finishing the same way it began in November.

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  5. Yeah and it looks like that will carry over into March. Unbelievable. Accuweather is forecasting a warmer Spring but i'm not sold on that at this point.

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    1. I'm still feeling some optimism that things will change this spring compared to the last 2 years. As I've mentioned before using snowpack, probabilities are higher for a warmer than normal March than colder than normal. I really hope this holds true as a 3rd straight year of near-record late springs just seems hard to believe in this day and age.

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  6. Awfully cold today, likely not even reaching -20°C. Weakening clipper system moves in tonight and tomorrow with some light snow possible. I don't think we'll see much; possibly 1 or 2 cm. Slightly milder the next few days until Tuesday-Wednesday when another push of very frigid air moves over. This February is awfully reminiscent of last year...

    By the way, February is really on a cooling trend the last decade. Since 2005, only 2012 had a February that was warmer than the previous 30-year average. This February will mark the 10th colder than average February in the last 11 years as a result. Overnight lows have seen the greatest cooling in the last decade, rather than daytime highs.

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  7. There seems to be at least a slight glimmer of hope for some warmer weather. The ECMWF(euro) model is bringing in milder air for us somewhere around the 25th or so. Whether it happens or how long it lasts is another story all together. Personally, if it happens, I don't think it's long term. Quite frankly March isn't looking all that great either at this point, especially the 1st half. I certainly would not paint all my hopes on an early spring. I don't see any signs at this point that support the idea of an early spring. I know that Accuweather is calling for an early spring here but they are the outlier for now as nobody else is on board with that idea as of yet.

    I certainly hope it happens as it would be a very welcomed change after experiencing 2 of the most horrible springs i've seen here in 2013 and 2014 but i'm not overly optimistic about it at this point.

    Note that, on average, March is also typically colder than normal following a colder than normal February.

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    1. It may not be earlier than normal, but I just can't see spring being as late as the last two years with such a lack of snowpack. Of course, there could always be some big snowstorms in March or early April that ruins things though... All we need is for the snow to melt by the first week of April, which is around normal, and a good 3 weeks earlier than in 2013 and 2014.

      Once things are more clear on how February will end next week, I'll determine how likely March will be below normal based on February's ranking.

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  8. I find it absolutely mind boggling how December and January will have finished warmer than February and March. Wow, puzzling. Can't say i'm surprised though. All that's missing now to make matter even worse is a 1 or 2 large snowstorms, which wouldn't be a surprise if that happens either. It can worse be worse however. Just at look at Eastern Canada for an example.

    It would just be nice to see Spring at the very least show up on time for a change. But i'm not liking on how things are going right now and based on latest trends there isn't a lot of hope for at least something that resembles Spring anytime soon or even over the next 3 to 5 weeks or so.

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    1. This February is just crazy. Whitehorse anticipating above zero highs all week with +6C Wednesday, according to EC's forecast. Very warm in BC, especially overnight lows in the Vancouver and Victoria areas with some nights barely dropping below 10C this month. Apparently some trees are blossoming already. Then you go eastward and it's been a nightmare with -30's in parts of southern Ontario last night, including London. And of course, snowmaggedon on the Maritimes. Just wake me up when this month is over!

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  9. Agreed. Here's hoping that, the warmer that's been residing out west this month eventually makes it's way back further eastward before too long.

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  10. Wow, it looks like we'll see this winter's 1st overnight low of -35C or colder tonight. It just keeps getting better and better. A winter that just keeps getting worse and worse as we get closer to the end. Can you say, PREDICTABLE.

    And doesn't get any better from here. All long range ensembles are in good agreement that the next 8-14 days will be well below normal which takes us into March. Kinda starting to resemble 2013 and 2014, doesn't it?
    That's scary.

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    1. My goodness, I wouldn't be surprised if this February ended up even colder than last year's. Incredibly consistent pattern we are in in North America this month.

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  11. Yeah, all for the wrong reasons though.Would be nice to see a consistent warm pattern around here for a change.

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