Friday 22 May 2015

Warm Stretch Continues... Another Top 10 Latest Start to T-storm Season This Year

Fabulous weekend ahead across southern Manitoba with warm temperatures and lots of sunshine. Highs of 25-27°C are expected today through to Sunday. Winds will be light as well, making for a perfect weekend.

Another Colorado Low is expected to our southeast Monday and Tuesday. At this point, it is unclear if Manitoba will be impacted by this system or not. For now, just keep in mind that we may see another round of rain if the system moves far enough north.

In other news, the thunderstorm season is having another late start this year. The airport has yet to receive a thunderstorm this year, meaning the start of the season will be among the top 10 latest since 1953. This is the 3rd consecutive year to have a top 10 latest start to the thunderstorm season and the 4th since 2011. In fact, it is even possible we may have a top 5 latest start this year if we don't get a storm before May 30. However, note that thunder did occur in southern sections of the city on May 2 earlier this month.

22 comments:

  1. Why has that been the case over these last few years? Seems like we'll never know but you'd think with that kind of consistency somebody would have an idea as to why we've been getting so many late starts.

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  2. First 30°C of the year within reach tomorrow... However, there could be a lot of cumulus in the afternoon. There could even be a few showers or rumbles of thunder with these. Nothing significant though.

    The Colorado Low mentioned in this post will not have an impact here with the rain remaining well to our south and east.

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  3. 30°C still possible today as long as we don't get too much cloud. Any shower or thunderstorm activity that develops and passes over could limit our high as well. Not expecting any real organised storms today. Just the isolated popcorn-type activity.

    Cooler behind a cold front tomorrow with highs in the low 20's under lots of sunshine.

    Cloudier on Thursday with some showers possible. Some uncertainty on how much rain we will see with some models keeping the bulk of the rain south of the border and others bringing a nice swath of rain into southern Manitoba in the morning Thursday. So for now, just keep in mind the day could start wet depending on how far north things push.

    Much cooler on Friday behind another cold front. We will likely only reach the mid teens. Remaining cool Saturday, then a moderating trend begins Sunday.

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  4. Ended up just shy of 30°C yesterday in Winnipeg with a high of 29.6°C at the airport. Some locations did hit 30°C.
    Thunderstom risk looking greater tomorrow now with a cold front swinging through in the afternoon. Can't rule out an isolated severe storm, especially south of the Trans Canada. Main thunderstorm risk generally east of Brandon for the afternoon and evening. This will be after a chance for rain in the morning.

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  5. JJ, a few models are diverging on the activity staying stateside and I can't understand how Winnipeg is surrounded by thunderstorm risks tomorrow but were not included in it. I had a look at the 12Z 4KM NAM Simulated radar on Nexlab looking good for storms here, however all the others 06Z and 18Z seem off according to the risk area they are further east than the SPC map. Do meteorologists omit those runs? Are we still at a good chance for storms tomorrow in Winnipeg? Or will they miss us?

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  6. In other words has your thunderstorm risk for the red river valley changed at all since 1pm??

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    1. Yes, sorry for the slow response I am out of town. Storm risk not looking as good as it did yesterday.

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  7. My goodness, still waiting on the airport's first thunderstorm of the year... Can't believe we're talking about another late start to the season here. Looks like this will be the 5th time since 1953 that we had to wait until June to get our first. If there is no storm by next Wednesday, this will end up being the 3rd latest start to the season. This is after a 2nd latest start in 2013 (June 10).

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  8. JJ, are there chances for storms before Wednesday?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. There could be a chance for storms on Tuesday-Wednesday according to some models.

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  9. We'll likely see rain push into the Winnipeg area this afternoon and evening and could be heavy at times. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible, with the best risk for these storms to our southeast in southeastern Manitoba. Can't rule out 20+ mm here by tomorrow morning. Locally higher possible, especially in southeastern Manitoba.

    May summary should be posted later today or tomorrow. Sorry for the delay, I've been awfully busy lately. Spring summary on AWM will have to wait until at least the weekend.

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    1. Sharp drop-off in rainfall now expected to lie not far from Winnipeg. Looks like the bulk of the rain will now remain to our south and east. I'm pretty skeptical about us getting any thunderstorm activity and as a result, it appears the start of this thunderstorm sason will be in the top 3 latest on record at Winnipeg airport since 1953. Second latest was 2013 on June 10.

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    2. JJ, when are we going to get another thunderstorm? Please let me know...

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    3. Maybe next weekend there will be a chance? It's really too early to say for sure. It wouldn't surprise me if we get pretty close to the 2013 record.

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  10. My goodness what the heck is happening with our weather these last few years?! Yet another forecasting bust and another late start to storms. Gosh this is so depressing it feels like things will never get better here!

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    1. I feel your frustration. The last few years have been real depressing weather-wise around here.

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    2. Michael McGregorJune 02, 2015 5:09 pm

      Maybe the lord wants to tone things down after the Elie Tornado that happened a few years ago. Also Is it just me? since I started becoming weather obsessed in 2010 things went downhill from there. I should maybe quit forecasting and making weather predictions. Things were better before then.

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  11. Finally, some more summerlike type temperatures have made a comeback to our region. Long overdue. Temps in the mid to upper 20s expected for the foreseeable future and possibly even 30C or so by Tuesday next week. The one hiccup would be the chance for thunderstorms perhaps severe on Saturday afternoon and evening but the way things have gone this year already, I wouldn't bet on it for Winnipeg. It's June 4th and we haven't a thunderstorm yet here in the Peg. Wow. It looks like the trend that began a few years ago wants to continue this year.

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  12. I guess its official? First thunderstorm day of the year at 3 am this morning observed at the airport, even though most of us probably weren't awake to witness it (must've not have been much). There was a line of lightning just off to our NW

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    1. It is official, the first thunderstorm of the year at Winnipeg Int'l A. This is the 3rd latest start to the thunderstorm season on record since 1953.

      May summary will be posted today for sure, sorry for the delay.

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  13. I'm in East St Paul and we have had about 2 inches already today with hail. More on the way. Ive had to pump my pool down so it would not overflow! I see the rest of city missing almost all of this t-storm line.

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    1. Quite the storms where I am in northeastern North Dakota as well. Drove right through a strong line earlier, luckily we didn't encounter hail. Large hail was reported in Cavalier. Certainly turned into an interesting day today.

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